Tech layoffs are becoming the new normal

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emorphy

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The big picture: Job cuts in the tech industry last year were attributed to the need to economize, driven by inflation and a hiring spree during the pandemic. So, what's the explanation this year, especially when many of these firms have accumulated a significant amount of cash?

IT jobs are no longer the safe bet they once were. Since the start of the year, 209 tech companies have laid off 50,312 employees, according to Layoffs.fyi. Last year, a total of 1,191 tech companies gave 269,180 employees their walking papers.

These aren't just startups who are letting their workers go. Alphabet, Amazon, Cisco, eBay, Meta, Microsoft, SAP, and Unity Software have all downsized their staff in recent months and in sizable numbers. PayPal is yet another example: it announced in January that it planned to eliminate 2,500 jobs or nine percent of its workforce.

The carnage is so great that it is second only to the dot-com bust in 2001, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Its latest report offers some faint relief to the sector as cuts in the sector from the January-February 2024 period have fallen 55 percent from the 63,216 cuts through February 2023.

Notably, the numbers don't perfectly align exactly with the calculations from Layoffs.fyi. The outplacement firm says that between January and February of 2024, some 28,218 cuts in tech have been made, and 12,412 occurred in February.

However you figure it, the numbers are bad for industry workers accustomed to being courted by multiple firms when job searching.

Now, many are finding the job search to be highly competitive, according to a series of interviews by CNBC. Roger Lee, creator of Layoffs.fyi, noted that many of these workers are either leaving tech entirely. "Even engineers are compromising – accepting roles with less stability, a tougher work environment, or lower pay and benefits," he said.

And the news gets worse for job seekers staying in tech. The once robust salary increases appear to be no more, as tech salaries have "largely stagnated" in the last two years, Lee said. This is not to say they don't pay well – relatively speaking – once a job is secured.

An entry-level person in the artificial intelligence field could earn anywhere from $109,500 to $138,500, according to Comprehensive.io, a compensation tracker Lee recently helped launch. On the other end of the spectrum, a senior director – someone who manages directors from various groups or is responsible for a business function – can pull down a salary that ranges between $178,500 to $310,050, according to the site.

The bottom line is the reason behind the cuts, but companies seem to have moved the goalposts this year. In 2023, tech firms claimed they needed to scale back after a hiring binge during the pandemic, and because of inflation and weak consumer demand. This year, inflation is markedly down, and many of these firms are profitable and cash flush.

Two words explain this year's trend: stock prices. Layoffs bolster shares "so these companies see no reason to stop," said Jeff Shulman, a professor at the University of Washington's Foster School of Business.

In fact, he called it the new normal. "They're getting away with it because everybody is doing it. Workers are more comfortable with it, stock investors are appreciating it, and so I think we'll see it continue for some time."

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This year, inflation is markedly down

No it’s not. The rate of inflation isn’t as high as it had been, but it’s ticking upward again. This is one reason why the Federal Reserve is postponing rate cuts.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/business/inflation-fed-interest-rates.html

Plus, inflation is a form of compound interest and has a massive cumulative effect over time. Just because the rate of inflation decreased doesn’t mean that costs have gone down - we would need deflation for that to happen.
 
No it’s not. The rate of inflation isn’t as high as it had been, but it’s ticking upward again. This is one reason why the Federal Reserve is postponing rate cuts.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/business/inflation-fed-interest-rates.html

Plus, inflation is a form of compound interest and has a massive cumulative effect over time. Just because the rate of inflation decreased doesn’t mean that costs are going to go down - we would need deflation for that to happen.
So 9.1% down to 3.2% doesn't mean to you that inflation is down.

Also, no one claimed in the article that slowing inflation means lower prices. That's only your imagination.

So... No more questions.
 
So 9.1% down to 3.2% doesn't mean to you that inflation is down.
Actually, core inflation is now 3.8%. And his argument went straight over your head. The inflation rate is down from a year ago, but the inflation itself is here to stay. The damage is permanent. Even if the inflation rate today were zero, the 30% cumulative inflation from the last 3 years has taken a third of the value of all bank accounts, retirement funds, and other dollar-denominated assets. Forever.

If you lost a third of your heart, liver, and lung function, would you be ecstatic, just because the doctor told you that you're now only losing a further 3.8% per year?
 
Tech companies hired like covid would last forever which was stupid forecasting on their part. The hiring frenzy drove up tech salaries way above market. This is just coming back to reality.

It sucks to get laid off but remember you gut 3 years of cheddar beforehand.
 
I mean… it’s not really surprising given all the articles last year about big tech basically hiring Ivy League prospects solely so that the competition couldn’t, without actually having any work for them…

The hiring practices seem to have been entirely crazy (I blame upper management), and layoffs in any kind of headwind seem to be a given with this sort of strategy…
 
Actually, core inflation is now 3.8%. And his argument went straight over your head. The inflation rate is down from a year ago, but the inflation itself is here to stay. The damage is permanent. Even if the inflation rate today were zero, the 30% cumulative inflation from the last 3 years has taken a third of the value of all bank accounts, retirement funds, and other dollar-denominated assets. Forever.

If you lost a third of your heart, liver, and lung function, would you be ecstatic, just because the doctor told you that you're now only losing a further 3.8% per year?

Someone deosn't understand the difference between nominal and real economics. Your heart is a real thing. Employment and production are real things. Money and inflation are non-real things. Hence, an easy way to figure out inflation is to use the Quantity Theory of Money (keeping velocity constant): MV = PY.

Here, you're keeping everything constant except for P (price index). Which is absurd. You're point about cumulative inflation is accurate but the conclusion is baseless.
 
Someone deosn't understand the difference between nominal and real economics. Your heart is a real thing. Employment and production are real things. Money and inflation are non-real things. Hence, an easy way to figure out inflation is to use the Quantity Theory of Money (keeping velocity constant): MV = PY.

Here, you're keeping everything constant except for P (price index). Which is absurd. You're point about cumulative inflation is accurate but the conclusion is baseless.
You're arguing with someone who is not only a tech enthusiast but also online legal scholar, sociologist, and economist.
 
They layoffs are because of several reasons. 1: Over hiring is one for sure. 2: companies are thinning the herd of entitled workers that think they own the place and can do what they want. 3: entitled workers that refuse to want to come to the office to work and would prefer to work at home still. 4: wages have gotten to insane levels (inflation has a lot to do with that mostly) but also greed because everyone thinks they deserve a million dollars an hour even if they are the lowest person on the totem pole at their work (yes I do believe in a fair wage for everyone) but I also believe you have to earn that wage by doing your best work all of the time. 5: the companies are just greedy, or should I say the shareholders are as they demand more and more return on their investment each year so the companies either raise their prices or cut the employee base or do both at the same time. These companies do not care about their employees or their customers just the money nothing else.

For reference on inflation here in Canada it is pretty bad everything is so high on price now days and our loser government is doing everything in their power to make it even worse for everyone all oour traitor leader lives like he is a king and condemns anyone who voices their opinion on what he has been doing to our country for the last 8 years.
 
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You're arguing with someone who is not only a tech enthusiast but also online legal scholar, sociologist, and economist.

Forgive me for saying this but unfortunately in this day and age this could mean you're also out of touch with what's really affecting people and to what extent. All that really matters is that prices have surged out of control and people are suffering. You would need zero inflation for many many years to allow wage growth to have any sort of chance to catch up.
 
...an easy way to figure out inflation is to use the Quantity Theory of Money ... You're [sic] point about cumulative inflation is accurate but the conclusion is baseless.
Or, as Milton Friedman put it, "inflation is, always and everwhere, a monetary phenonenom".
However, you're attempting to apply a macroeconomic theory to a microeconomic situation. When you buy a $3M annuity, sell a $3M bond, or have $3M in a bank account, and a sudden inflation spike erodes its value by a third -- you lost a million dollars worth of buying power.

Furthermore, there are very real negative effects to rapid inflation, even for those without fixed-value assets. You won't find a single economist who disagrees with this, but if you wish to argue otherwise, I'll be happy to outline the mathematical basis behind it.

Money and inflation are non-real things.
Since money isn't real, you're willing to work for free, right? And try explaining that "inflation isn't real" to anyone who's experienced a hyperinflationary spiral.

You're arguing with someone who is not only a tech enthusiast but also online legal scholar, sociologist, and economist.
The nice thing about facts is that they remain true, regardless of who espouses them. There's nothing I've said that any reasonably well-educated person shouldn't already know themself. Perhaps I might suggest a little more time spent reading rather than videogaming?
 
Quantative easing aka printing money is the main culprit. We bailed out the corrupt financial system. Bought all their dodgy loans with goverment bonds socialising the debt on mr and mrs Joe. The banks were supposed to then lend to the wider economy to get thing going again but instead put that money back on deposit with the ECB (europe) who then had to charge them negative interest rates to curb this. Combined with zero interest rates the people with access to loans, ie the rich, then bought all the assets they could get their hand on.ie. houses. This of course drove up asset prices which is why a house is out of reach for common folk. Then the Central banks turned off the free money supply which meant rates had to rise and therefore inflation. Rates will not come down longterm. Banks can't make money at 2-3% wholesale rates . The previous century rates were at an average of 8-10% world wide.
 
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Another great career field ruined by the higher bosses ..... time to have an AI boss replacement .....
 
No it’s not. The rate of inflation isn’t as high as it had been, but it’s ticking upward again. This is one reason why the Federal Reserve is postponing rate cuts.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/business/inflation-fed-interest-rates.html

Plus, inflation is a form of compound interest and has a massive cumulative effect over time. Just because the rate of inflation decreased doesn’t mean that costs have gone down - we would need deflation for that to happen.
Inflation is caused by one thing and one thing only. Printing money. The Biden Administration has nearly all costs up 30%.
 
This is all very similar to the dot.com bust of of early 2000's. The funny thing is in approximately 2-3 years hiring will be booming again and there will be no one to hire. The tech industry will wail to politicians that they can't compete without H1B's because there's not enough workers, the market will get super frothy again, and pop, reset. Tech is a high growth industry that is boom and bust. If you want to be in it, you better have a year's worth of savings you can tap into and a plan to constantly evolve your skill set to be on the cutting edge of whatever gets investors hot and bothered. There is no job security, especially if you are good at your job and your high pay reflects that. You'll be first one they send off.
 
Who printed the money? "
Donald Trump And The Fed Are Destroying The U.S. Dollar
" https://www.forbes.com/sites/billyb...are-destroying-the-us-dollar/?sh=362d28ec6ebc
Oops! Trump ran a $3.1T deficit in 2020 -- to combat a once-per-century pandemic. And Democrats actually demanded he spend even more than that.

CNN, Mar 2020: "...The Trump administration is headed for a budget clash with Congress, with calls for deep spending cuts that lawmakers are likely to ignore as the nation’s debt hits a record level...."

Biden, however, in just the last three years, has ran up total deficit spending of $5.85T, and is on track to add another $2T to that for 2024.
 
Oops! Trump ran a $3.1T deficit in 2020 -- to combat a once-per-century pandemic. And Democrats actually demanded he spend even more than that.

CNN, Mar 2020: "...The Trump administration is headed for a budget clash with Congress, with calls for deep spending cuts that lawmakers are likely to ignore as the nation’s debt hits a record level...."

Biden, however, in just the last three years, has ran up total deficit spending of $5.85T, and is on track to add another $2T to that for 2024.
I don't like the government spending all this money. Long term it's not healthy. However, it would seem spending more actually worked. We focus on the US like inflation only happened here. It happened world wide. The US may have gotten hit with a big spike, but our economy also isn't dragging *** like everyone else for the last 2 years. Inflation be damned, Biden/Dems avoided a major recession by spending like they did when they did. Personally I think they just fell *** end into that. I also still think the overall deficit is really going to hurt us going forward as it's the interest payments on this huge deficit that will kill our government's ability to spend, but short term it actually achieved something. Also, if the GDP grows, the tax revenue goes up and that slowly tilts the ratio back. Better to have a huge deficit with a growing economy. Who knows if this will last. The areas that are seeing huge demand/growth are mostly related to government spending.
 
No it’s not. The rate of inflation isn’t as high as it had been, but it’s ticking upward again. This is one reason why the Federal Reserve is postponing rate cuts.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/business/inflation-fed-interest-rates.html

Plus, inflation is a form of compound interest and has a massive cumulative effect over time. Just because the rate of inflation decreased doesn’t mean that costs have gone down - we would need deflation for that to happen.
yep - deflation would be would give the consumer more purchasing power for sure. inflation takes time to go through the markets themselves
 
Someone deosn't understand the difference between nominal and real economics. Your heart is a real thing. Employment and production are real things. Money and inflation are non-real things. Hence, an easy way to figure out inflation is to use the Quantity Theory of Money (keeping velocity constant): MV = PY.

Here, you're keeping everything constant except for P (price index). Which is absurd. You're point about cumulative inflation is accurate but the conclusion is baseless.

I take his point and conclusion as "the damage is done and is non-reversible" and I absolutely agree.

Prices are up 30-50% across the board depending on the product or service being purchased.

Over the past three years here in west michigan new home construction cost has gone from 100-125 a sq/ft to $250sq/ft.

Inflation might not be a real thing but it still HURTS!
I'm not sure what conclusion you were trying to rebut... Maybe you just hate his analogy?
I thought the analogy was smartly conceived and conveyed.
 
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