Tesla production snags send deliveries tumbling

Shawn Knight

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The big picture: Tesla has reported first-quarter vehicle deliveries of 386,810, significantly fewer than Wall Street analysts were anticipating. The falloff marks the first year-over-year decline in deliveries since 2020, and some believe it could be a sign of things to come.

Deliveries were down 8.5 percent compared to the same period a year earlier, which Tesla attributed to the early phase of the production ramp for the updated Model 3 at its Fremont factory, as well as factory shutdowns due to the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack that occurred at its Gigafactory in Berlin.

According to an average of 11 estimates collected by FactSet, analysts were expecting deliveries of roughly 457,000 units during the three-month period. Estimates ranged from 511,000 on the high end to 414,000 on the low end. At 368,810, Tesla wasn't even close on the bottom end.

Production wasn't far off from Q1 2023. According to Tesla, it turned out 433,371 vehicles in the latest quarter compared to 440,808 in the year-ago quarter. Production dipped 12.4 percent quarter over quarter, however.

Share value in Tesla is down 5.2 percent as of writing, with shares currently trading at $166.03 apiece. Year to date, Tesla's shares have lost a third of their value but are still up more than 800 percent over the last five years.

The Model 3 and Model Y collectively accounted for most of Tesla's deliveries – 369,783, to be exact. The remaining 17,027 deliveries were of other models including the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck.

The EV giant's latest offering, the Cybertruck, debuted in December in small numbers and has been met with mixed reviews. Tesla also faced significant competition from domestic brands including Xiaomi, a newcomer to the EV market.

Late last month, Tesla rolled out a one-month free trial of its full self driving tech in the US and mandated that staff demo the tech before owners take possession of their new vehicle.

Tesla is set to share first quarter earnings at the close of trading later today.

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Not just Tesla. The ENTIRE EV "market" is dying because people who actually wanted an EV have one.
No one else really wants them for various reasons. Even the manufacturers have scaled back, or stopped
production due to excess inventory.
 
Not just Tesla. The ENTIRE EV "market" is dying because people who actually wanted an EV have one.
No one else really wants them for various reasons. Even the manufacturers have scaled back, or stopped
production due to excess inventory.
None of that matters. EV sales are tied to the price of oil. As soon as the price of gasoline spikes so will EV sales. It's as simple as that. People who love their gas guzzling cars have no reason to give them up as long as gasoline prices are at acceptable levels. The problem is that oil prices have nowhere to go but up. It is inevitable.

tl;dr It doesn't matter if you dislike EVs, at some point gas will cost $10 / gallon and sure enough people will start warming up to EVs.
 
If EVs were cheaper and more practical, there would have been a mass adoption, but they needed huge government subsidies just to keep them afloat. Charging time and limited range are nowhere near classic cars, even though they have been touting for years a future revelation in battery tech. Call me again in 30 years, until then, let the market decide, don't take my taxpayer money to fund Musk company and others. But it's green! I think that argument has been debunked for a while now, the manufacture of an EV is polluting as hell. So, just make them better and cheaper if you want people to buy them and stop with the lies.
 
Call me again in 30 years
I will call you back in 10 years when gas prices are up like 50-100% and let your wallet decide. An EV is for 90% of all journeys the way to go. Also 80% is a mindset issue: Go get some solar panels and see how your mindset changes over time
 
I will call you back in 10 years when gas prices are up like 50-100% and let your wallet decide. An EV is for 90% of all journeys the way to go. Also 80% is a mindset issue: Go get some solar panels and see how your mindset changes over time
When gas prices are up, so will electricity. My mindset is this: I don't give a fk on your green agenda. 10-20-30 years I don't care, I live in the present. When these things will not only be cost effective, but better then I'll switch no problem. So far, they are neither.
 
Not just Tesla. The ENTIRE EV "market" is dying because people who actually wanted an EV have one.
No one else really wants them for various reasons. Even the manufacturers have scaled back, or stopped
production due to excess inventory.

EV is the future but many awaits solid state batteries and range improvements in general.

EV is good for short trips but terrible for longer trips. Many people are not giving up their freedom before range is improved x2 on EVs.

I have an EV, but I also have a diesel. I can drive 3 times longer in the diesel, stop for 2 min and repeat. Diesel is dying tho. It will last me a few years more. Then I will be all in on EV.

0 to 60 in ~2 seconds is fun.
 
When gas prices are up, so will electricity. My mindset is this: I don't give a fk on your green agenda. 10-20-30 years I don't care, I live in the present. When these things will not only be cost effective, but better then I'll switch no problem. So far, they are neither.
Well ... an american mindset. Good look with that, investing into a cost-effective-future always pays out. Yesterday in germany we had 84% renewables in public energy production and in 10 years we will have the cheapest electicity on the planet.

At home we already produce more energy than we can use and sell the rest, for a good profit. This year we upgrade our heating + a battery system and will have 0-Euro-Bill for Hot Water, Heating and Mobility in 10/12 month for the next 10 years. I can drive as fast as I want without paying for it (y) (Y)
 
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Well ... an american mindset. Good look with that, investing into a cost-effective-future always pays out. Yesterday in germany we had 84% renewables in public energy production and in 10 years we will have the cheapest electicity on the planet.

At home we already produce more energy than we can use and sell the rest, for a good profit. This year we upgrade our heating + a battery system and will have 0-Euro-Bill for Hot Water, Heating and Mobility in 10/12 month for the next 10 years. I can drive as fast as I want without paying for it (y) (Y)
In 10 years you will have the cheapest electricity on the planet! Thank you for brightening my day! In the meantime you stock up on Russian gas via India, while disabling all your nuclear power plants.
You sell the rest for a big profit, until a lot of people do that, the electric grid will be overcharged and the government decides to tax the sun. Also you assume most people can afford solar panels and they own a house...
 
In 10 years you will have the cheapest electricity on the planet! Thank you for brightening my day! In the meantime you stock up on Russian gas via India, while disabling all your nuclear power plants.
Shutting down nuclear was not the best plan our government had. True. But it helped us to learn dependency is a bad thing, especially if they are not democratic countries. We are now expading faster than ever and solved many political discussions. The next 3-5 years will be critical but if they work out, we made it.
Edit: Check this graph and just extrapolate the next 10 years:

You sell the rest for a big profit, until a lot of people do that, the electric grid will be overcharged and the government decides to tax the sun.
Yes and others learn quickly. Now a lot of friends also have a PV. Even a small one on the balcony with 2 panels is enough to cover most daily usage and almost halfs your energy bill. This plug-and-play balcony-units less than 400 EUR. They refinance after a couple years. No-brainer.

Managing the overload is part of the strategy and works pretty well so far. Bigger hydrogen-plants are beeing planned (yes, germans LOVE planning instead of building) and will consume the overload in time. Hence I dont think that the government will tax solar in the near future, they want all the energy they can get and even pay for it.

Also you assume most people can afford solar panels and they own a house...
We used to pay like 3000-5000 EUR a year for gasoline and houshold fuel. There is a lot of budget available.

As an example - just to get a dimension for that money: A solar installation is only 10-15k EUR for 10kWp and works for 10-20 years. If you buy a starbucks coffee every day you will pay: 365 days a Caffè Latte (Grande) 4,59 EUR for ~1700 a year and will cost more than a solar installation after 10 years. This is not a matter of money its only a matter of desire.
 
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This, coming from Tesla, doesn't surprise me. Tesla, IMO, has bigger things to worry about - the main thing is that there are finally serious competitors entering the EV market.
None of that matters. EV sales are tied to the price of oil. As soon as the price of gasoline spikes so will EV sales. It's as simple as that. People who love their gas guzzling cars have no reason to give them up as long as gasoline prices are at acceptable levels. The problem is that oil prices have nowhere to go but up. It is inevitable.

tl;dr It doesn't matter if you dislike EVs, at some point gas will cost $10 / gallon and sure enough people will start warming up to EVs.
I bought a 2024 Prius Prime recently, and I've gone some 876-miles on about 1/4-tank of gas which is about 2-gallons. Of course, I charge it regularly, and I figure that the electricity cost is about 1/4 that of my old 2006 Prius. I'm down for the PHEV side of things - at least until someone figures out how to get 1,000 or 2,000 miles per charge out of a battery.
 
This, coming from Tesla, doesn't surprise me. Tesla, IMO, has bigger things to worry about - the main thing is that there are finally serious competitors entering the EV market.
When you switch between one-screen-Teslas and a BMW with multiple screens and headup and real door-handles you realize how bad Tesla actually is. Tesla can only win a price battle for drivers who are willing to make trade-offs.

I bought a 2024 Prius Prime recently, and I've gone some 876-miles on about 1/4-tank of gas which is about 2-gallons. Of course, I charge it regularly, and I figure that the electricity cost is about 1/4 that of my old 2006 Prius. I'm down for the PHEV side of things - at least until someone figures out how to get 1,000 or 2,000 miles per charge out of a battery.
Who do you want up to 2000 miles (3000km) of range when you drive like 60 (100km) on battery every day? I'm perfectly fine with my 300 miles (400km) and usually charge twice a week from 20 to 80.
 
Good, Muskie boy's getting the reality check pills in steady doses. Serves him right.
Actually, you're falling for the steady stream of anti-Musk propaganda from biased journalists. Tesla's YOY production has fallen only 1.7% -- in a time period in which other EV manufacturers are cancelling production models outright, or even going bankrupt entirely.
The amount of Leftist hate engendered due to Musk revealing the depths of corruption in the Twitter Files is truly staggering.
 
Edit: Check this graph and just extrapolate the next 10 years:
Long-term linear extrapolation is one of the most mathematically illiterate techniques possible. Germany's push for renewable energy has taken it from the cheapest electricity in Europe to one of the most expensive, stifled industrial capacity, and brought back the spectre of blackouts for the first time in the country's modern history. It generates massive price swings : with electricity being too expensive at times for plants to operate, then days or even hours later, with prices so low that industrial customers are actually being *paid* to consume energy. It's the cause of the nation's recent energy woes, as wind and solar plants all require natural gas for baselining -- and Russian NG wasn't available. And finally, Germany is only able to break the 50%-of-grid ceiling on these sources by selling massive amounts of excess power to neighbors like Poland, then buying back non-renewable power when then wind isn't blowing and the sun isn't shining. A nice trick -- but one that only works as long as your neighbors are less renewal-dependent than yourself.


Now a lot of friends also have a PV. Even a small one on the balcony with 2 panels is enough to cover most daily usage and almost halfs your energy bill. This plug-and-play balcony-units less than 400 EUR.
No one "halves their energy bill" with a tiny €400 balcony PV unit in a high latitude location like Germany. If you ignore the fact that most of your energy consumption is for (non-electric) heating, ignore the direct costs of a battery backup system for that unit (or the indirect cost of forcing the utility company to provide it for you), and assume the household is a tiny one-person apartment, you may get close to 50% -- but of course, those assumptions result in ignoring the lion's share of the problem.
 
No one "halves their energy bill" with a tiny €400 balcony PV unit in a high latitude location like Germany
Lets put it like this. If you are able to consume the energy you "produce", you can save a lot. You have to adopt your behaviour and try to operate your dishwaser, heatpump-dryper or washing-maschine when the sun is out. For example we bought recently a Bauknecht heat-pump-dryer (TKL M11 83 N) which peakes at 700W during operation. Even small PV with 800W can have an impact in this case.
 
You have to adopt your behaviour and try to operate your dishwaser, heatpump-dryper or washing-maschine when the sun is out. ...
How do you only operate your home heating system only when the sun is out, when nightime temperatures drop below freezing?

Here's a thought. Instead of radically altering your behavior and lifestyle to fit your energy-starved budget, you could instead invest in clean, dependable, safe nuclear power. Instead, Germany bowed to its most ignorant radical fringe, and reverted back to 19th century techniques of obtaining power from wind, sun, and the burning of materials.
 
Two opinions and we could discuss for weeks. The argument for heating in the winter is a valid and needs to be solved. As far as I can tell, the cards are on the table in germany and will execute the strategy, which is not nulcear. Lets see how this will be going in 5 years.

I personally know my investments in the upcoming 10 years and we will achieve a nulear and gas-free heating system. A friend of mine has the first 3 prototype systems for a home-sized hydrogen-plant out, but 150k EUR is too much. The price will drop significantly when it goes to higher volume production. May be this is after all more expensive than other systems, but being independ from a pricing-strategy of an oil-well in russia or saudi-arabia should be a good thing. Stability is a good thing.

Edit: And one more thing. If I talk to friends and see how much electicity they practically use for a modern house with a heat-pump and ~12kW battery, I have zero-doubt that it will work out. The numbers work out.
 
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A friend of mine has the first 3 prototype systems for a home-sized hydrogen-plant out, but 150k EUR is too much. The price will drop significantly when it goes to higher volume production. May be this is after all more expensive than other systems, but being independ from a pricing-strategy of an oil-well in russia or saudi-arabia should be a good thing.
Even if your hydrogen system costs nothing, you still need to buy fuel for it. And the only cost-effective method of producing hydrogen today uses petroleum, and still results in a fuel cost more than double that of natural gas. Direct hydrolysis methods are 10x as expensive ... and then where do you get the energy to run them?

Edit: And one more thing. If I talk to friends and see how much electicity they practically use for a modern house with a heat-pump and ~12kW battery, I have zero-doubt that it will work out. The numbers work out.
I pulled my figures from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany main website. Are you saying they're lying? Furthermore, their figures are for electrical use only for lighting and basic appliances -- *not* heat pumps, which would add considerably more. Finally, I note you left the cost of that massive 12kWhr out of your "cheap 400 euro" PV system.
 
I can assure you first hand that everything from an solar panel installation for 400 EUR, over a heatpump household-transformation with solar and energy storage, to a EV financially starts works out and people want it. We have more and more success stories and people are realizing that regenerative will not destroy the industry, nor keep you from driving every day to work, nor heat your house in the winter.

Nobody is lying about the numbers, but once you realize that cheap energy is a trap and will cost more, you will see all the small projects. Uprading our solar installation and having like 20 MWh/y of over-production is one part of it. A 800W-Balcony-Installation is another part, upgrading the energy grid another and even a small hydrogen plant in spain is a part. Not a single project will secure our energy hunger in every situation, but the combination will build the foundation.
 
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