Hello everyone. With four months until the midterm elections, I thought I would see what the people in this forum think will happen in this year's Senate races. I predict that the following Senate seats flip:
Democrats to Republicans: Arizona, Nevada
Arizona is a traditionally Republican state where Mark Kelly narrowly won in a considerably more favorable environment than that of the current election cycle. So, I think that he will go down in this year’s red wave. I am a back-end volunteer for Catherine Cortez Masto’s campaign in Nevada, and I can say that it made key mistakes in 2021 by not holding many in person events and allowing the ground game to deteriorate due to Nevada’s mask mandate. The serious divide between Nevada Democratic Victory and the Democratic Socialists of America is also preventing proper coordination efforts from taking place. As a result, Adam Laxalt has gained significant ground and set the economic narrative against Catherine Cortez Masto. I predict the economic attacks will stick and that Catherine Cortez Masto will be the first Democratic senator since Howard Cannon to lose re-election.
Republicans to Democrats: Pennsylvania
This may be a rather hot take, but I think the recent recount mess in the Republican side and the high voter negatives of Mehemet Oz will cause too many problems for the Pennsylvania Republicans to handle. I thus believe that John Fetterman will gain enough ground to eke out a very narrow victory even under a red wave environment.
The flips would put the 2023 Senate composition at a 51-49 Republican majority.
Thoughts?
Democrats to Republicans: Arizona, Nevada
Arizona is a traditionally Republican state where Mark Kelly narrowly won in a considerably more favorable environment than that of the current election cycle. So, I think that he will go down in this year’s red wave. I am a back-end volunteer for Catherine Cortez Masto’s campaign in Nevada, and I can say that it made key mistakes in 2021 by not holding many in person events and allowing the ground game to deteriorate due to Nevada’s mask mandate. The serious divide between Nevada Democratic Victory and the Democratic Socialists of America is also preventing proper coordination efforts from taking place. As a result, Adam Laxalt has gained significant ground and set the economic narrative against Catherine Cortez Masto. I predict the economic attacks will stick and that Catherine Cortez Masto will be the first Democratic senator since Howard Cannon to lose re-election.
Republicans to Democrats: Pennsylvania
This may be a rather hot take, but I think the recent recount mess in the Republican side and the high voter negatives of Mehemet Oz will cause too many problems for the Pennsylvania Republicans to handle. I thus believe that John Fetterman will gain enough ground to eke out a very narrow victory even under a red wave environment.
The flips would put the 2023 Senate composition at a 51-49 Republican majority.
Thoughts?
