Bitcoin's next halving in May could send the currency to new all-time high

nanoguy

Posts: 556   +8
Staff member

A lot of people seem interested to see what 2020 will bring for the cryptocurrency industry. Arcane Research points out to how Google searches for related keywords have spiked this month and that might be because on May 20, 2020, the third Bitcoin 'halving' will occur.

That means the rate at which new Bitcoins are generated will decrease by 50 percent of what's been for the past few years. Bitcoin is designed as a deflationary coin that is limited to 21 million units, the last of which will be mined in 2140.

Historically, "halving" events have boosted the price of Bitcoin by an order of magnitude, while cutting rewards for miners that solve "blocks" of transactions. The current block reward is 12.5 BTC and takes place every 10 minutes, but in May it will go down to 6.25 BTC. Consider for a moment the current price of 1 BTC, which is hovering at ~$9,000 -- give or take a few hundred dollars -- as of writing.

If history were to repeat itself, it could send Bitcoin higher than the already crazy peak of almost $20,000 reached in 2017, possibly even as high as $90,000 if you believe some enthusiastic German bankers. If that sounds impossible, it's worth noting that some of the people that bought this token for pennies close to its inception didn't exactly believe it would become so valuable over time, and nowadays even the most pessimistic investor doesn't see it falling below $5,000 for the foreseeable future.

On one hand, you have people like Kraken CEO Jesse Powell, who thinks Bitcoin would still be undervalued even if it reached $100,000. And considering the sudden increase in public awareness, it's not hard to imagine people rushing to buy Bitcoin in the hopes of makings easy returns if it happens to skyrocket over night.

On the other, you have the skeptics that believe the Bitcoin halving may have already been priced in, in which case there isn't much to gain by pouring your life savings into the cryptocurrency. Then there's the hypothesis that investors and companies will mostly trade in derivatives rather than speculate on Bitcoin.

However, there's enough indication out there that newly mined Bitcoins would most likely be absorbed through Square's Bitcoin purchasing service and Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust. Add to that some 30 million Coinbase customers and people using trading apps like eToro and RobinHood, and you have a lot of variables that will affect Bitcoin's value.

But let's forget the halving for a minute. In the last decade, the best investment you could make was Bitcoin, provided you jumped into the boat relatively early. Some were even able to ride the recent wave of miners that bought each and every capable graphics card on the market hoping to make a profit. Now you'd have to own a large mining operation with specialized equipment somewhere in a cold climate or in places like China where electricity cost is just a few cents per kWh.

Companies like Starbucks and AT&T are slowly adopting Bitcoin as a payment method, while others like Apple might never integrate it into their services. Some would be quick to dismiss it based on how transactions are very slow and not at all energy efficient, but solutions backed by tech executives like Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey are on the way to solve that in the near future.

When that happens, there is a good chance the value of Bitcoin will rise, as it has the potential to offer inexpensive financial services for the 1.2 billion people in places like Africa who can't rely on the banking system.

Governments don't like the idea of highly volatile and speculative assets like Bitcoin, but they are much more open to the idea of currency-pegged "stablecoins." After the 2020 halving, much of the effort that was previously devoted to mining will have to be directed towards greater adoption, so at least there's a low chance we'll see Bitcoin go down in price.

In any case, expect more companies to follow in the footsteps of Facebook to launch their own cryptocurrencies, which is also known to cause surges in Bitcoin's price as soon as an announcement is made. If anything, 2020 might be the year cryptocurrency hits the mainstream and governments start to take it more seriously.

Permalink to story.

 

QuantumPhysics

Posts: 3,273   +3,069
I remember back in November of 2017 when everyone was so certain Bitcoin, Tron, Ripple, Ethereum and all the other big named "coins" would have been "over $100,000" by now.

Speculation at water coolers and lunch rooms by people who had no idea what they were talking about.

"Millennial gold" they were calling it.

Yes there was a window where a Bitcoin investment would have netted you tremendous profit if you managed to sell in time....but people who got in didn't want to sell because they expected the value to continue rising and early sales to cause them to lose money.

Now I sit in January 2020 and Bitcoin is approaching $10,000, again, after waxing and waning but never managing to see even $20,000.

It will never go to "zero" because the early adopters won't sell it.

But with the governments involved and demanding taxation of any gains, no one wants to trade in it anymore so it won't see those speculated highs either.

A whole lot of money "disappeared" when it fell from $19,000.

What was supposed to be a new transfer medium offering freedom from banks was being used to take out more money than you put in.

Some people would call that a Ponzi scheme.

The ultimate truth is that Bitcoin is a speculative asset. It's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. And unlike Silver, Gold, precious metals, real estate or physical, tangible items, Bitcoin has no intrinsic value.
 

Attachments

  • Like
Reactions: tkabou

EEatGDL

Posts: 753   +466
Devil's advocate here: to me, halving the rewards means that each month the miners have to pay for the electricity, they have to sell at least double the BTC to cover their operation costs, thus bringing bigger dumps each month. The past halving-peaking may just be coincidences and hype machine behind all. But fundamentally, periodic selling volume will double.

And I'm saying this with a BTC trading position opened yesterday.
 

QuantumPhysics

Posts: 3,273   +3,069
Imagine how the early Bitcoin adopters who used their Bitcoin to purchase Pizza, snacks and music felt when Bitcoin hit 15,000.
 

umbala

Posts: 298   +365
The whole thing sounds like another gimmick to try and pump up the value of this "currency" so that some of the big dogs can try and cash out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: QuantumPhysics

Karlos95

Posts: 113   +39
I remember back in November of 2017 when everyone was so certain Bitcoin, Tron, Ripple, Ethereum and all the other big named "coins" would have been "over $100,000" by now.

Speculation at water coolers and lunch rooms by people who had no idea what they were talking about.

"Millennial gold" they were calling it.

Yes there was a window where a Bitcoin investment would have netted you tremendous profit if you managed to sell in time....but people who got in didn't want to sell because they expected the value to continue rising and early sales to cause them to lose money.

Now I sit in January 2020 and Bitcoin is approaching $10,000, again, after waxing and waning but never managing to see even $20,000.

It will never go to "zero" because the early adopters won't sell it.

But with the governments involved and demanding taxation of any gains, no one wants to trade in it anymore so it won't see those speculated highs either.

A whole lot of money "disappeared" when it fell from $19,000.

What was supposed to be a new transfer medium offering freedom from banks was being used to take out more money than you put in.

Some people would call that a Ponzi scheme.

The ultimate truth is that Bitcoin is a speculative asset. It's only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. And unlike Silver, Gold, precious metals, real estate or physical, tangible items, Bitcoin has no intrinsic value.
Your precious metals will always be around in every day items, bitcoin is limited, try and get some for nothing, you can't. Real estate has been propped up for ages, a crash is coming because most houses are empty or not affordable. PHYSICAL, TANGIBLE ITEMS are worth literally how you just described bitcoin, it is only worth what someone is willing to pay for them, much like real estate and gold. Everything is only worth what someone wants them for. Much like those lobsters that were going for a fair few dollars now worthless because of the coronavirus. You have much faith in the status quo my friend.

 

FF222

Posts: 230   +166
Bitcoin is by definition worthless, because there's an infinite supply of cryptocurrencies - all of which can replace Bitcoin. Once there will be a cryptocurrency for which that doesn't hold true anymore (for ex. because it's backed by the state), _that_ and only that one will have an actual worth similar to classic currencies.
 

Uncle Al

Posts: 7,357   +5,766
A question, since I've never attempted to deal in it. Is there a general exchange (like the stock market) where one can buy AND sell? Buying it I'm sure is simple, but selling it would seem to be a nearly impossible task, especially when the market fluctuates .....
 

Don Vanderpool

Posts: 8   +11
A question, since I've never attempted to deal in it. Is there a general exchange (like the stock market) where one can buy AND sell? Buying it I'm sure is simple, but selling it would seem to be a nearly impossible task, especially when the market fluctuates .....
GBTC - openly traded - follows bitcoin price lock step; albeit at a much lower price point
 

Uncle Al

Posts: 7,357   +5,766
GBTC - openly traded - follows bitcoin price lock step; albeit at a much lower price point
This is funny .... as large as Nashville is there are only two exchanges and only one of them supports buying and selling ..... and they are both at kwiki-mart gas stations! Oh yeah, what a way to invest! LOL
 
B

bas416

Bitcoin is by definition worthless, because there's an infinite supply of cryptocurrencies - all of which can replace Bitcoin. Once there will be a cryptocurrency for which that doesn't hold true anymore (for ex. because it's backed by the state), _that_ and only that one will have an actual worth similar to classic currencies.
If it's backed by the state what is the crypto part? That is a classic currency then...
 

FF222

Posts: 230   +166
If it's backed by the state what is the crypto part? That is a classic currency then...
These are orthogonal attributes of a currency. A cryptocurrency is not a cryptocurrency because it's not backed by the state, but because it (or more precisely: its "bookkeeping") is based on cryptography.
 

Porkous

Posts: 109   +27
Your precious metals will always be around in every day items, bitcoin is limited
What is this audacity to compare gold to thin air? Did you know gold is made out of super nova? Also the history is so old. The crypto can simply be duped and copied all over, if this one fails. The market is based on greed, hype and fear. It stagnated, so I think people right now expect it to rise, since it did not dump to 0. Don't forget to set your stop losses.


If this type of drum fanfare is still going, then my thesis is clear. BTC is a phenomenon because people make it so, and they pump their fantasies and habits into it, without real life experience, but in the work of the mind of the masses.

Also, tell me, why the coin is at 9000, and not 90? or 9? since its fine granularity allows for 1. to 0.000010 ranges.

The entitlement in this sphere is audacious

My theory why it does not dump, is because those who are experts, be it in all types of trading, psychology etc... control it. I don't really think the masses control the coin.
For example, it dropped 80% from 20k, and what results is about 4k, so it would mean the pattern here is that the coin drops in stages, at maximum of 80%, if you take 80% out of 4k, you reach 800 which was in the accumulation of 2016. That means the majority held the coin before even the masses heard about it, and they just buy a little and then sell more.
 
Last edited:

Karlos95

Posts: 113   +39
What is this audacity to compare gold to thin air? Did you know gold is made out of super nova? Also the history is so old. The crypto can simply be duped and copied all over, if this one fails. The market is based on greed, hype and fear. It stagnated, so I think people right now expect it to rise, since it did not dump to 0. Don't forget to set your stop losses.


If this type of drum fanfare is still going, then my thesis is clear. BTC is a phenomenon because people make it so, and they pump their fantasies and habits into it, without real life experience, but in the work of the mind of the masses.

Also, tell me, why the coin is at 9000, and not 90? or 9? since its fine granularity allows for 1. to 0.000010 ranges.

The entitlement in this sphere is audacious

My theory why it does not dump, is because those who are experts, be it in all types of trading, psychology etc... control it. I don't really think the masses control the coin.
For example, it dropped 80% from 20k, and what results is about 4k, so it would mean the pattern here is that the coin drops in stages, at maximum of 80%, if you take 80% out of 4k, you reach 800 which was in the accumulation of 2016. That means the majority held the coin before even the masses heard about it, and they just buy a little and then sell more.
People price it where it is because, believe it or not, the status quo is going to be gone soon. Every one trusts their government with their money LOL! Most gov backed currencies have been inflating! Why would I want to own something that has been going backwards. Gold is a prime example, price has always gone up. What has your $ been doing? How many groceries could you buy with 1gram of gold back in 1980 compared to the same amount in value as money and then compare those two with today cost of groceries.

You forget the math element to BTC. You CANNOT create more, only 21 million coins ever! And the last one is set to be mined in like 2100, so maybe then the value will start to collapse who knows. But right now, it has been the best investment in the last 10 years. Nothing has compared.

It beats FIAT currency in so many ways, it is crazy people still trust your gov with your money. Take a look at Venezuela and the hyper inflation there. To say it was a one off and can't happen anywhere else are gullible and will keep the corrupt govs and their status quo to power.

Mark my words. With all the S**T storms happening around the world, BTC will be 100k by the end of the year. Show me any other investment that is recession (close to depression) proof and any other form of currency I can send in seconds for a fee so minuscule it would be seen as ludicrous to use a bank for that same transfer of value.
 

FF222

Posts: 230   +166
You forget the math element to BTC. You CANNOT create more, only 21 million coins ever!
You forget that literally anyone can create his own cyrptocurrency. Because of that the supply of cryptocoins is virtually unlimited, which in turn makes all cyrptocoins virtually worthless. Unlimited supply = no worth. Simple as that.
 

Karlos95

Posts: 113   +39
You forget that literally anyone can create his own cyrptocurrency. Because of that the supply of cryptocoins is virtually unlimited, which in turn makes all cyrptocoins virtually worthless. Unlimited supply = no worth. Simple as that.
You forget a lot of shitcoins are scams, hence why everyone goes to BTC, because they trust it, since it's the only coin to have a history over many years. Other coins are still relatively new.

It's kind of like a brand name. Like Apple. Shitty products but because of the brand they can still charge $1000 for their new phones when Samsung does it better :D
 

Karlos95

Posts: 113   +39
So is Bitcoin.


Bitcoin's many years history only proves one thing: it's a scam, that will never gain traction in the real world.
Check back here at the end of year mate.

If you don't think Gov money is a scam, then I believe you think BTC is one. GL in the up and coming recession.
 

Porkous

Posts: 109   +27
the status quo is going to be gone...soon... backed currencies have been inflating! Why would I want to own something that has been going backwards.
Imo, people with big pockets have investments in all sorts of things, from owning businesses, to owning real estate, gold, stocks, etc. They are not "all in" in a single asset class, just because that would make them attached with the life in them to that asset, and would not be able to walk in life without fear. Or they leverage.
Your coin also goes backwards, and that is supposed to do, as with a cup of water, in order to fill the cup, first has to be emptied, and only buyers fill the cup.

You forget the math element to BTC. You CANNOT create more, only 21 million coins ever! And the last one is set to be mined in like 2100, so maybe then the value will start to collapse who knows. But right now, it has been the best investment in the last 10 years. Nothing has compared.
Yes but why do you care about the quantity? Since traders only trade for as long as their stop loss is going, and then they book profits. Those who own the majority of the coin are lesser than the newcomers, so you have to ask yourself, who pumps up the coin, if everyone is already in mostly, or already owns most of the quantity?

It beats FIAT currency in so many ways, it is crazy people still trust your gov with your money.
Is not the gov you trust, but the people, if you don't like US dollar, then like EUR which is owned by a most powerful nations in history. The idea of fiat is to be traded fast and everywhere. It does not devalue that much, if you add to it (if you got lesser capital in your bank), it would devalue if you had millions in the bank and you would not be able to sustain the inflation with the growth each month by your sources of incomes... in this case everything devalues in some sorts, in the detriment or the advantage or something else.

Mark my words. With all the S**T storms happening around the world, BTC will be 100k by the end of the year. Show me any other investment that is recession (close to depression) proof and any other form of currency I can send in seconds for a fee so minuscule it would be seen as ludicrous to use a bank for that same transfer of value.
And why would the crypto, with the least credibility and big investors (those who invest in stocks) devalue the least? everything devalues at one point, because someone takes out the profit, is how solid it is that matters imo. Your coin would devalue the most (in such case) as the big investors would leave (and has lesser liquidity over all)
Why would it get to 100k, who pours in the money? and who pours out the money? I seen an article where it shown that only about 3% of the blockchain addresses own the entire stack (search for top 100 richest addresses and see for yourself). Is not a big deal if a small majority own the coin, the issue would be that overall, the pressure to sell would be higher than of that to buy so it means it did not have organic growth. It could get to 100k, but it would lose credibility the next moment, as people already think is made of thin air. /The mentality of "I'll show you how awesome my awesome coin is"
 
Last edited:

Karlos95

Posts: 113   +39
Imo, people with big pockets have investments in all sorts of things, from owning businesses, to owning real estate, gold, stocks, etc. They are not "all in" in a single asset class, just because that would make them attached with the life in them to that asset, and would not be able to walk in life without fear. Or they leverage.
Your coin also goes backwards, and that is supposed to do, as with a cup of water, in order to fill the cup, first has to be emptied, and only buyers fill the cup.


Yes but why do you care about the quantity? Since traders only trade for as long as their stop loss is going, and then they book profits. Those who own the majority of the coin are lesser than the newcomers, so you have to ask yourself, who pumps up the coin, if everyone is already in mostly, or already owns most of the quantity?


Is not the gov you trust, but the people, if you don't like US dollar, then like EUR which is owned by a most powerful nations in history. The idea of fiat is to be traded fast and everywhere. It does not devalue that much, if you add to it (if you got lesser capital in your bank), it would devalue if you had millions in the bank and you would not be able to sustain the inflation with the growth each month by your sources of incomes... in this case everything devalues in some sorts, in the detriment or the advantage or something else.


And why would the crypto, with the least credibility and big investors (those who invest in stocks) devalue the least? everything devalues at one point, because someone takes out the profit, is how solid it is that matters imo. Your coin would devalue the most (in such case) as the big investors would leave (and has lesser liquidity over all)
Why would it get to 100k, who pours in the money? and who pours out the money? I seen an article where it shown that only about 3% of the blockchain addresses own the entire stack (search for top 100 richest addresses and see for yourself). Is not a big deal if a small majority own the coin, the issue would be that overall, the pressure to sell would be higher than of that to buy so it means it did not have organic growth. It could get to 100k, but it would lose credibility the next moment, as people already think is made of thin air. /The mentality of "I'll show you how awesome my awesome coin is"

1) Yes diversification is key but everyone is going toward things that don't inflate when things start looking dicey eg. Gold and BTC.

2) Who cares what traders do? A majority of the coin is owned by people that have had it before the 2017 pump. Meaning they held onto it when it went to ATH and then held onto it into the dump. How many billionaires and millionaires are there? If they all want 1 coin each guess what, they can't, more than 21 million millionaires.

3) You realise they keep printing money right. GO look at a graph of how farany gov dollar has come. THey all go down the graph. Look at gold and BTC, only up. Would be dumb to trust the dollar can continue it's path unless you think 98% of citizens are ok with working for nothing (basically slave labor).

4) Least credibility? The people who say there is no credibility don't understand it. The credibility comes from the fact that YOU, yourself controls it, no one else. No Gov can tax it off you, no bank can charge you transaction fees or freeze your account. The fact that you have all the power is where the credibility is. As more and more people try to get a coin, it'll keep pushing higher. And guess what, as the recession is around the corner, everyone will flock to gold and BTC. Since BTC is easier to use (can send anywhere in seconds overseas) then the people who understand it and know what to do will buy that, obviously the older you are the more likely you'll buy gold instead.

Like I said, let's chat at the end of the year and see where it is then. It is already at the half way point from the ATH. Won't take long to crack the 20k mark. :)
 

Porkous

Posts: 109   +27
The same thinking got people back in 2017 to subscribe to all those scenarios and noise, the same that seems to be parroted all the time even right now; throwing the fizzling hot potato to the next person, and so on.
 
Last edited: