Chinese chipmaker YMTC is asking American employees to leave the company

NikoBB

Posts: 107   +66
Unfortunately, history has thought us otherwise. Chinese will invade Taiwan, only matter of time, and USofA would be just a bystander, or best case do as they do in Ukraine, however, Chinese are much more brutal then the Ruskies and would not allow it. USA only dared to attack countries that are much weaker than any other respectful power like Russia/China. I mean Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, Syria didn't stand a chance against NATO. Then again, Vietnam gave them a run for their money, but was reversed situation, Chinese and Ruskies were helping North Vietnamese back then. Also, recent pull out of Afghanistan was a total fiasco.

What we should be afraid of is that Chinese will develop their own technologies for manufacturing semiconductors at almost the same level as the West, but would be good enough and reliable for their own purposes. Ecosystems will be built around RISC V that is open source and will step away from Wintel as many are doing it already. Once they do, they'll drop us like a Plymouth hooker knickers when a big ship docks in....they don't need us, and they'll demand to stop using USD as a trade currency. This is only the beginning I'm afraid
A dark age is approaching for humanity. Because "democracy" is in decline, or rather, their civilian stratum is in decline. And totalitarian states are still stable enough to peck at them from all sides, almost with impunity, because. their population is slavishly submissive to all the hardships that their ruling layer puts on them (and as mobilization in Russia showed, they are even ready to easily, without a fight, because of fear, civic cowardice, give their own lives in the name of Russian kleptocracy). If the same thing that happened with the USSR does not happen (and now there are much fewer prerequisites for this, taking into account the digital opportunities (which the West gave them) of control (and mass zombies) by the authorities of the population in totalitarian countries), then the West has practically no means opposition, except to go on the defensive for 40-50 years and restore order in their societies by restoring civil rights and freedoms and ensuring the implementation of the Constitutions. Which is obviously unrealistic today, in view of the fact that most Western societies are already reactionary (the turning point for this was missed 30 years ago - immediately after the collapse of the USSR) and does not want to pay their debts (especially the younger generations to work with increased returns for the old generations that have gained loans over the past 50 years (when the credit pump began to win in the Cold War) and offer the young people to work much more productively for them (old generations), without promising any improvements in life, which the young people a priori perceive with hostility, I.e. in the West, a tough war of a generation began - the old debtor and the new ones, who are transferred their debts at the state level (and not just private ones)). So the world will spiral down. Things are getting worse in the West, in totalitarian countries like Russia and China there will be an almost feudal system with slavery, but in a new digital way. People in the West, if they manage to avoid the same slide into a fascist and slave-owning system, will simply have a hard time, but these are the little things of life, against the backdrop of the horror that will be in totalitarian countries ...

I think at this stage. all mankind, from the point of view of scientific and technical progress, lost outright. There will be no breakthroughs in the near future, because. resources for science and technology will rapidly decrease (and the pressure of the number of people will only increase). Recently, Intel has already become a loss-making company.

If you manage to stabilize the "perimeter" of some developed civil society (as a state or an alliance) surrounded by totalitarian ones and it has sufficient resources, then it will again (inevitably) win the scientific and technical competition against totalitarians. If there are no resources, then humanity will plunge into the dark ages and only the very distant surviving heirs of today's generations will apparently see the light at the end of the tunnel...
 
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donnieD

Posts: 27   +25
If you manage to stabilize the "perimeter" of some developed civil society (as a state or an alliance) surrounded by totalitarian ones and it has sufficient resources, then it will again (inevitably) win the scientific and technical competition against totalitarians. If there are no resources, then humanity will plunge into the dark ages and only the very distant surviving heirs of today's generations will apparently see the light at the end of the tunnel...

And we thought movie Idiocracy was a comedy, it turned out to be a documentary of the future....
 

Avro Arrow

Posts: 3,396   +4,412
Unfortunately, history has thought us otherwise. Chinese will invade Taiwan, only matter of time, and USofA would be just a bystander, or best case do as they do in Ukraine
No, this would be different because the Taiwan is ALLIED to the USA and Ukraine wasn't. The USA would DEFINITELY intervene, especially considering that Taiwan is the technology engine of the West.
USA only dared to attack countries that are much weaker than any other respectful power like Russia/China. I mean Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, Syria didn't stand a chance against NATO.
This is true but the USA has A LOT invested in Taiwan and will not tolerate China just taking it.
Then again, Vietnam gave them a run for their money
That was just badly run by the Americans from the get-go. Their leadership was incompetent and corrupted by palms being greased by the defence sector. I mean really, designing the F-4 without a cannon?
, but was reversed situation, Chinese and Ruskies were helping North Vietnamese back then. Also, recent pull out of Afghanistan was a total fiasco.
Ask the Russians how well things went for them in Afghanistan (or Ukraine for that matter). Whenever a country expects that it will steamroll the enemy, they often have lost before the fighting begins because it never works out that way in the real world.
What we should be afraid of is that Chinese will develop their own technologies for manufacturing semiconductors at almost the same level as the West, but would be good enough and reliable for their own purposes.
Tell you what. Never buy something made in China again and you won't be supporting them. If the USA and China were actually this close to war (they're not), then they wouldn't still be massive trading partners.
Ecosystems will be built around RISC V that is open source and will step away from Wintel as many are doing it already. Once they do, they'll drop us like a Plymouth hooker knickers when a big ship docks in....they don't need us, and they'll demand to stop using USD as a trade currency. This is only the beginning I'm afraid
What I'm most afraid of is that the USA's government has become so corrupt and inept. I mean, seriously, have you seen the piece of garbage called the F-35? The costs are outrageous and they're pieces of feces. Things like THAT threaten the West more than China does.
 

donnieD

Posts: 27   +25
No, this would be different because the Taiwan is ALLIED to the USA and Ukraine wasn't. The USA would DEFINITELY intervene, especially considering that Taiwan is the technology engine of the West.

This is true but the USA has A LOT invested in Taiwan and will not tolerate China just taking it.
USofA is inapt to lead multi region wars anymore, not anymore the superpower that once was. Taiwan is "formally" China according to UN and so is Hong Kong (yet another embarrassment from British government). So quite a slippery slope if USofA is to help them.

That was just badly run by the Americans from the get-go. Their leadership was incompetent and corrupted by palms being greased by the defence sector. I mean really, designing the F-4 without a cannon?

Ask the Russians how well things went for them in Afghanistan (or Ukraine for that matter). Whenever a country expects that it will steamroll the enemy, they often have lost before the fighting begins because it never works out that way in the real world.
All of them made mistakes in wars, everyone broke their teeth in Afghanistan throughout history, and yet, nobody learnt from it. Unfortunately, people died unnecessarily due to bad decisions from governments/intelligence.

Tell you what. Never buy something made in China again and you won't be supporting them. If the USA and China were actually this close to war (they're not), then they wouldn't still be massive trading partners.
Have you tried? How much is any device/appliance/car we have or bought past 20 years not Chinese? I would gladly do it, but impossible to any of us mere mortals here. Even those ill fated F-35s have Chinese made parts in them.

What I'm most afraid of is that the USA's government has become so corrupt and inept. I mean, seriously, have you seen the piece of garbage called the F-35? The costs are outrageous and they're pieces of feces. Things like THAT threaten the West more than China does.
Yeah, we bought 138 of them for RAF, B versions and are stationed on aircraft carriers. Even with Ugly Kid Joe you still have a government in some shape or form, UK has become a utter laughing stock.
 

NikoBB

Posts: 107   +66
No, this would be different because the Taiwan is ALLIED to the USA and Ukraine wasn't.
This is deceit. The USA and England were guarantors at the signing of the Budapest Memorandum in the 90s. Otherwise, the Ukrainians would not have given away 3,000 nuclear warheads and would now be a nuclear power, around which everyone would walk at attention.

And the most disgusting thing is that Russia was the guarantor.

That is why the United States and England, feeling a key, at least moral responsibility, are forced to spend the main resources, unlike the European allies, who generally do not care about Ukraine, which shows their true level of assistance in comparison with the GDP of the European Union vs. US GDP.

The Ukrainians were either naive or their authorities were criminal (which is most likely, I.e. corrupt) when they entered into this pact in the 90s.
In principle, given the fact that they have several of the largest nuclear power plants in Europe and that they definitely have specialists in nuclear weapons, it is very strange that they have not made a nuclear bomb again in 8 years since 2014. That is why in Russia they are often mocked as the Failed State. They failed to pull themselves together and concentrate on the main goal and its fulfillment for the whole 8 years at that time. And here, too, the complete dependence on the West and the United States, in the first place, played a role, which, deliberately, did not allow them to do this and at the key moment cowardly did not close the sky for Russia, fearing the threat of the use of nuclear weapons. I am sure that Putin would have immediately backed down and not attacked. As well as with the public threat directly voiced before February 24 to use nuclear weapons to protect Ukraine. Whoever is the lesser coward wins here. The United States and England turned out to be cowards, or they deliberately provoked a war in order to divert the attention of the population from the start of hyperinflation due to the fault of the financial mafia and the covid scam (there have already been mass attempts in the press to directly justify officials and doctors and calls for trying on the parties, I.e. those who did this, understand that they all face criminal prosecution and punishment if they do not receive an amnesty from those whom they illegally restricted their rights).

And now it’s impossible to return hundreds of thousands of dead people (both in Ukraine and with the Covid scam, and there are millions and millions of ruined lives and destinies) in no way, just like stopping the war - that’s why many Ukrainians have lost their relatives, and this is a guaranteed blood feud and a war to the bitter end the end, to the last drop of blood, otherwise a wild civil war will begin in Ukraine, and then the "dirty" bomb may end up in the USA or Europe in revenge ...

Imagine that a bandit came to your house, killed your wife and daughter, settled in one room of your house and now demands to conclude a peace treaty with him on his terms? What are you going to do?

As for Taiwan, I think it's still possible, we need to do everything differently. Just remove from there everyone who does not want to live under the yoke of totalitarians from mainland China, and move all production to the maximum. But Xi understands perfectly well that after that, he will essentially not need Taiwan. the key moment when it is still possible to put the West into a stupor by cutting out TSMC and a number of enterprises that have no analogues in the world will be missed within 2-3 years. Well, the very old Chinese in Taiwan (including the founder of TSMC) are of course extremely unpleasant to give up territory and flee, but this is the best bloodless scenario for the West if Xi does not deliberately attack earlier. And everything is moving fast towards that. And then the West may have 2 fronts, and in both cases the enemy is also armed with nuclear weapons and it can only be defeated by the collapse of society and the beginning of unrest on their territory and nothing else. It has long been impossible to defeat Russia and China by military means.
 

Theinsanegamer

Posts: 3,960   +7,019
This is how US got their technology....I'll tell you one more thing : there are no "gender studies" in China. God luck Americans.
This is also how we found out the Third Riche was full of shat, and that most of their *wunder weapons* were pipe dream approved by Goering when he wasnt gorging himself on eclairs. Being a Nazi "scientist" meant getting out of the draft, larger food rations, and protection fromt he bombings, so unsurprisingly EVERYONE wanted to do it, and most were in no way qualified to be scientists.

Of course, these projects were approved by the Beauracracy, which approved things on a whim. For every Werner von Braun, there were 100 Horton brothers. Same thing happened to German commanders hired by NATO after WWII, which is how the british found out that the German officer corp was bereft of talent, and were some of the whiniest high maintenance snowflakes of all time. They were maintained by the british mostly to keep the soviets on their toes rather then any sort of tactical brilliance.
 

Theinsanegamer

Posts: 3,960   +7,019
USofA is inapt to lead multi region wars anymore, not anymore the superpower that once was. Taiwan is "formally" China according to UN and so is Hong Kong (yet another embarrassment from British government). So quite a slippery slope if USofA is to help them.
The fact that america's carrier fleet dwarfs the rst of the world's combined says otherwise. For info on how the army fights when they dont want to play city builder, look no further then the gulf war.

Needless to say, china's unstablized tank guns and stealth planes with cross sections the size of barn doors pose little threat now. And given that the chinese weapons today are built on the back of old soviet designs, and what we've seen in ukraine, it's doubtful that any taiwanese invasion would work, china would likely run out of ships before managing to land at this point.
 

NikoBB

Posts: 107   +66
This is also how we found out the Third Riche was full of shat, and that most of their *wunder weapons* were pipe dream approved by Goering when he wasnt gorging himself on eclairs. Being a Nazi "scientist" meant getting out of the draft, larger food rations, and protection fromt he bombings, so unsurprisingly EVERYONE wanted to do it, and most were in no way qualified to be scientists.

Of course, these projects were approved by the Beauracracy, which approved things on a whim. For every Werner von Braun, there were 100 Horton brothers. Same thing happened to German commanders hired by NATO after WWII, which is how the british found out that the German officer corp was bereft of talent, and were some of the whiniest high maintenance snowflakes of all time. They were maintained by the british mostly to keep the soviets on their toes rather then any sort of tactical brilliance.
The Germans, judging by some surviving data, could, in principle, create a nuclear bomb if the war dragged on for another 3 years, and the United States did not have time by 1945, they simply did not have enough money and brains (because most of them fled, totalitarians always, in 100% of cases they lose the battle for the brains, but the brains are a long-range, strategic gain, but you need to be able to dodge and not lose in a critical tactical episode). And what would happen to the world then, it is better not to think.
But now the situation is much more dangerous (it is practically a dead end, in terms of global conflict, on our only planet). All opponents have nuclear weapons, and the United States (Western Alliance) does not have a "silver bullet" against it today, apparently, what nuclear weapons were like in 1945 in the world. And what can now be outplaying nuclear weapons? Super AI, real? So the West will obviously not have it for a very long time and which will suddenly offer a radical and effective solution to the problem of the presence of nuclear weapons in opponents, although I admit that now the best supercomputers are calculating possible scenarios for the development of a further conflict, in the hope of finding one where it is possible to manage and neatly win without going to nuclear war. Who knows what scientists and the best analysts/experts are working on... Yes, and Super AI itself is extremely dangerous - we can no longer talk about the survival of the Western Alliance, but about the entire human civilization. Therefore, in the event of a real defeat in a conventional war and a fiasco of the ruling class (and not Putin or Xi at all - the courtiers will quickly replace them if necessary) and Russia and China may well lead to fatal consequences for the West. No need to climb into hell into an empty place where you can simply leave like a king. And Taiwan is clearly not the place to shed rivers of blood there, especially since no one has attacked it yet. Where better to take out all the valuable personnel (people are more important than factories!) And all who do not mind living there. There is quite a place for them in the West. Well, who doesn't want to, let them stay like in Hong Kong. But just do not repeat the mistakes of Afghanistan and do it in an emergency manner, but take them out now in dense groups. At first, not the most critical for the infrastructure and then gradually the most critical. And let Xi choke on already meaningless territory, because. without people (brains) it is worth nothing. It's bad to run away from problems, but Taiwan is not such a big country that rivers of blood should be shed for it. Ukraine is another matter. It's right at the borders of Europe and it's critical. Taiwan is not even of any strategic interest, given the closest allies of South Korea and Japan for China. It's purely a matter of prestige for Xi and maintaining totalitarian power. As about now for Putin's clique. You just need to learn from the mistakes of the past and not allow rivers of blood (and they are not there yet at all) where they can be avoided without real strategic losses, leave with your head held high, and not like Afghanistan or Vietnam.

The task of the Western Alliance, if it itself, inside, is still able to deal with its own internal social and mental problems, is now to go on the defensive. And do not try to beat in vain where the waste of valuable resources is meaningless. Like last time, try to develop a much better civil society and get breakthroughs in science and technology so that the nuclear weapons of the totalitarians either cease to play a critical role or they themselves fall apart inside themselves, unable to withstand the yoke of internal problems, as happened with the USSR. Those. the military path at the moment is clearly a dead end. The only question is when the human potential will end in Ukraine. There or sooner the patience of the population of Russia will end. Approximately like the population of China, and they will finally want radical change. On the other hand, we have the example of North Korea, which has existed for 70 years and has not yet collapsed due to internal problems. But we must take into account that Russia and China are most likely secretly helping her, all these years. But who will help Russia and China themselves? Iran? This bird is not of that level. And no one else. India? This is an interesting question and discourse, although technologically and scientifically it does not represent anything special yet, and it is far even from the level of China. Those. in the event of a silent defense conflict of the Western Alliance, India will eventually have to take a clear side or it will also be behind the fence of the Western Alliance. There are many people, but little sense...

And only if the ruling elites of China and Russia go completely mad (including the vertical layer of control up to nuclear weapons), we can expect Armageddon. But why should it be brought closer from China by leaps and bounds, when the most valuable thing that the West has for a qualitative restructuring to a better, most productive society for science and technology is time, it takes a lot of time.
 

NikoBB

Posts: 107   +66
I think right at this time, the Biden administration (and not himself) is intensively negotiating a real transfer of Taiwan to China in exchange for Ukraine and Xi's intervention in order to stage a palace coup in Russia behind Putin's back, with the participation of the Russian power-holding stratum interested in stabilizing the situation, that is, they are also secretly negotiating. Because this is the last chance to stop the third world war and fix the borders of the blocks. All Taiwanese who want will be taken to the Western world and given favorable conditions for assimilation. They will agree with the Russian kleptocracy and some new leader, no longer interfering in their affairs, but also cutting off their access to Western life (they will have to put up with this), and all Western firms and specialists will gradually leave China and the two "camps" will develop completely separate with a respite for another 40-60 years in the new Cold War.
So YMTC, like other Chinese companies, will continue to rely only on their own strength - Western specialists and technologies will no longer be available, except for industrial espionage and attempts to repeat all this latest developments. Students from China will apparently also be cut off oxygen to study in the United States.

Well, good luck to the West in the development of civil society, if possible, in 30 years, although it will be extremely difficult to stabilize society without slipping into an authoritarian regime.