Data shows Steam wishlists have weak correlation with actual sales

[Daniel Sims]

The takeaway: Developers usually ask interested players to wishlist their games on Steam before launch, believing that high wishlist numbers impact visibility and, eventually, commercial success. However, studies over the past several years indicate that other factors are far more important.

Comparisons between the number of Steam users who wishlist games and the number who purchase them during launch week show little correlation. Although garnering wishlists can be beneficial, user reception within and outside Steam is far more impactful.

GameDiscoverCo, a newsletter by Simon Carless, a former developer and one of the heads of GDC, has been surveying developers since 2020 to understand the connection between wishlist numbers and sales. Valve states that wishlists have little effect on a game's visibility and commercial sales, and the data appears to support this.

Surveys from 2020, 2021, 2024, and this year indicate that the conversion rate between pre-launch wishlists and first-week sales averages roughly 36%, with a median of about 20%. However, performance between titles can vary by 1,000 to 2,000%. Many games achieve high wishlist numbers that don't translate into sales, while others sell primarily to customers who did not wishlist them.

Separating titles by categories, such as genre and price, revealed that cheaper games and adult titles consistently have slightly higher wishlist conversion rates. Low prices obviously make the decision to purchase a game easier, and adult titles likely sell to dedicated niche audiences.

However, the games with the highest sales compared to wishlists performed well due to other factors, such as pre-launch hype and positive reception following release. AAA games with large advertising campaigns, like Monster Hunter Wilds, tend to see conversion rates slightly below or above 100%. Meanwhile, popular sports titles, such as NBA 2K26 or EA Sports FC 25, exceeded 400%, indicating that most buyers did not wishlist them.

Viral hits sold the most compared to wishlist numbers. For example, Peak sold over 1 million copies in its first week despite being on only 36,797 players' wishlists – a conversion rate of nearly 3,000%. The highest performer from this year's survey was Revenge on Gold Diggers, an FMV dating simulator that drew enough controversy to catch the attention of mainstream news outlets, such as the BBC.

Valve says that wishlists primarily serve to notify interested customers of a game's release and discounts. However, Steam charts the most wishlisted games, and wishlists impact which titles appear in the "popular upcoming" section on the front page, though their precise effect remains unclear.

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Data shows Steam wishlists have weak correlation with actual sales

 

[DrSuess]

Not a surprise. I know a few people with Ferraris and Rolexes on their wishlist, I doesn't mean they will every buy one, that is what makes it wishlist.

 

[hazphan]

"Valve says that wishlists primarily serve to notify interested customers of a game's release and discounts."

Yes. I use steam wishlists for the traditional reason, but more often I add a game to my wishlist to simply be notified of it's release date or when there is a discount. I'll also mention that I add games to my wishlist not necessarily for myself, but to inform friends and family that have showed interest when the game is released or discounted. Another reason I wishlist is to keep an eye on a game and monitor reviews, especially important for early access games.

 

[RudyBob]

I hate the wish list. I dropped two games in it years ago and every week I get a notice they are on sale. I could remove them if it was easy. I'm just complaining

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Nothing else to really add.

Yeah a wishlist is a wishlist and I have plenty of games on there that have been there for years while I wait for them to hit my go price.

Other times I see a game I may be interested in and just add it to the wishlist so it doesn't disappear into the vast library of stuff on Steam but without any real intention to buy it.

 

[lonetac]

I wishlist games I am interested in so I get notifications when it goes on sale. Most I dont end up buying though.

 

[m4a4]

That's fine. It keeps people informed as to what's going on with the game. And it replaces preorders for me (if I'm inclined to buy a game full price at launch after checking reviews).

Sometimes we just don't want to buy them yet. And sometimes it's a "maybe after I play my backlog, this might be worth looking into" thing.

 

[human7]

I once had over 250 items on my wishlist before I started cleaning it up, now it's "only" 150 items (still have more cleanup to do, not to mention probably 50 games I already own that haven't gotten around to yet). There's a lot of cool stuff out there, but I just have to cull it since there's not enough hours in the day. I will watch the cutscenes of games I find interesting enough but don't have the time to dedicate to.

 

[GoldenGoat]

I hate the wish list. I dropped two games in it years ago and every week I get a notice they are on sale. I could remove them if it was easy. I'm just complaining

The emails are kind of crap too because they don't tell you the game title in the text. They just try to include a picture, but many people block pictures for privacy reasons. So they can't even tell what's on sale from the email.

 

[vicsrealms]

I only use the wish list to keep an eye on games that might interest me, games that came out and I want to keep an eye on (wait for them to remove Denuvo, and fix the bug ridden game), and games that I am waiting to reach 50%+ sales.