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Electric vehicles won't rule the road until at least 2040, says US government

By Himanshu Arora ยท 30 replies
Dec 23, 2013
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  1. According to the Department of Energy, gasoline powered vehicles will still make up for the vast majority of vehicles on the road even in the year 2040. The department's Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting in its 2014 Annual Energy...

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  2. VitalyT

    VitalyT Russ-Puss Posts: 4,478   +3,035

    It sounds like most of that EIA are heavily invested into the gasoline market, to make forecasts as ridiculous, or just as short-sighted as that Russian proverbial hedgehog in the mist...

    Those *****s are looking at bare statistics, without understanding where the technology is at the moment or where it will be in the near future.

    The same type of *****s who predict wide 4K U-HDTV adaptation for 2020, and the end of the world in 2012...
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2013
    Darth Shiv likes this.
  3. Skidmarksdeluxe

    Skidmarksdeluxe TS Evangelist Posts: 8,647   +3,286

    37 mpg is about 6.3 l/100 km. It doesn't sound all that great considering a lot of small cars get that and less at 100km/h right now. As for the price, a lot can happen to affect that between now and then and the way the price of electricity is soaring, maybe hydrogen power is a better alternative.
  4. MilwaukeeMike

    MilwaukeeMike TS Evangelist Posts: 3,160   +1,413

    There, I added the required 'government asterisk' that every statement from the govt should have. This will help explain up front the bogus logic in a hope that they won't be called liars down the line. Here's what the asterisk should say.

    *Subject to a few caveats. source (http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/08/29/545-miles-per-gallon-for-all-cars-by-2025-not-exactly)
    1) The government measures MPG differently than what you'd see on a car's window sticker. They use a non-standard test that leaves out things like accelerating and the occasional hill. We say 54, but it'll really be closer around 36 MPG.
    2) Auto-manufacturers are not really required to have all their cars be capable of 54 MPG, they just have to offer an average of 54 MPG across their whole fleet.
    3) The target of 54 MPG will be adjusted at the end of every year because it's unconstitutional for the US Govt to tell the auto makers what they have to make. Therefore if gas prices drop to like $2 a gallon and people demand more powerful cars, the standards will be adjusted.
    4) Auto makers can earn credits for selling electric vehicles and hybrids which they can use to offset higher mileage models like trucks and SUVs.

    Don't underestimate the fine print on these regulations. The last time they passed one of these, they made cars exempt from MPG regs that ran on E85 (85% ethanol, called FlexFuel vehicles). So basically auto makers could make what they want so long as drivers had the choice to fill up with extra expensive/hard to find/fast burning E85. The end result of those MPG regulations was that pretty much no one had to follow them.

    Just like everything else, auto makers are going to make what the consumers want no matter what the govt tries to do to guide them otherwise. Consumers get what they want, auto-makers can make what the consumers want, and the govt gets to look like they're important and doing something great. Everyone wins, hooray!
    davislane1 likes this.
  5. Any forecast of anything that reaches out more than a year is increasingly dubious. Full EVs will not capture a significant market share over gasoline/diesel and hybrids until they become as convenient and versatile as the competition. This might not happen for decades or it might happen tomorrow; trying to nail down a specific date doesn't accomplish much beyond making noise.
  6. cliffordcooley

    cliffordcooley TS Guardian Fighter Posts: 11,388   +5,015

    We will follow the money trail, where ever that may lead. We will move forward in this direction, regardless of what is in our best interest.
  7. I don't want an electric vehicle and hope that I will never be forced to buy one, so they can say 2100 and it'll be too soon for me. Getting 54 mpg from a V8 is gonna be interesting.
  8. MilwaukeeMike

    MilwaukeeMike TS Evangelist Posts: 3,160   +1,413

    To get an idea of how bass-akwards the govt is on this stuff... here's something I found on abcnews.com on the story...
    Now... you'd think maybe actually ACCOMPLISHING the MPG standards would be the big deal, and this guy would say something like 'This is the first step to a greener future', but no, just passing the law is the great accomplishment. Results are for suckers, right?
    cliffordcooley likes this.
  9. TomSEA

    TomSEA TechSpot Chancellor Posts: 3,124   +1,617

    We'll see what happens when Tesla comes out with their $40k sedan and they start selling like hot cakes. If it's one thing automakers hate, it's competition. They'll be forced to join in the affordable and quality electric manufacturing business or lose a considerable share to others.
    Darth Shiv likes this.
  10. GeforcerFX

    GeforcerFX TS Evangelist Posts: 875   +372

    Well I never saw electric cars taking over the market, if by electric car they mean only electric running off battery style. Some people need to be able to drive hundreds of miles at any time, gasoline hybrids or ethanol/bio-diesal hybrids are there solutions, still electric but using those fuels to create the electricity. I see there being a lot of different kinds of cars on the road by 2040 not just electric but by 2040 our battery tech will be better and hopefully nuclear fussion will have come along.
  11. captaincranky

    captaincranky TechSpot Addict Posts: 14,947   +3,993

    Isn't the quickest way to generate hydrogen, (& oxygen), through hydrolysis? You would need lots of electricity to accomplish that.

    I mean, it could turn into the same fiasco as methanol, with subsidies contributing to producing it a net loss.

    Then too, there's the issue of pressure containment. The bottles used for welding gases are thick walled, heavy, and need to be pressure tested every 5 years. (At least in my area).

    There's also the issue of how sophisticated the handling equipment needs to be for high pressure , potentially explosive mixes. Remember the space shuttle Challenger? That's the result of hydrogen and oxygen propellants. So, when you pull into a gas station and see a plastic bag over a pump nozzle that says, "out of order", think how much more risky squirting hydrogen at high pressure might have been.

    Disclaimer, I didn't do any research here. I could be talking out my a**! (Face it though, that's part of my charm).;)
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2013
  12. GeforcerFX

    GeforcerFX TS Evangelist Posts: 875   +372

    Well one of the by products of nuclear power is massive amounts of hydrogen. Yes its not the safest fuel to power cars, but its by far the cleanest.
  13. captaincranky

    captaincranky TechSpot Addict Posts: 14,947   +3,993

    Right! And since everybody wants to get rid of nukes, all you're doing is talking in circles.

    Besides give the time and precautions necessary to fuel with hydrogen, you aren't going to be able to pop into the corner gas station for five bucks worth on a whim.

    Notice I'm not disputing the cleanliness of it. I'm just saying that it might be impracticably clean.

    Note too, that forklifts that are required to run indoors, for decades have been using propane. But yeah, with those, ya gotta open a window..;)
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2013
  14. GeforcerFX

    GeforcerFX TS Evangelist Posts: 875   +372

    I wouldn't say anyone is abandoning nuclear energy, except Europe, the United States and China aren't. America just aprroved 5 reactor replacements that will be done by 2015 as well as another 15 by 2020. At the moment everyone (chine, USA, Russia) are working on generation IV reactors that can use "spent" fuel basically eliminating a lot of the costs associated with nuclear energy in the disposal of nuclear waste. I could see hydrogen being practical but only near coast lines. Like I said before I think the roads are going to be very diverse in 2040 not just gas and diesel like they are now.
  15. captaincranky

    captaincranky TechSpot Addict Posts: 14,947   +3,993

    Wow! Don't let Jackson Browne hear you say any of that.....:eek:
  16. EClyde

    EClyde TS Evangelist Posts: 1,832   +678

  17. The 2016 arrival of grapheme electrode lithium ion batteries will double the range of all electric cars, pushing the top Tesla model S over 500 miles and most EV over 200miles. The only gasoline that will be used in cars past 2028 would be for the onboard generator/ range extender. A kilowatt costs 10cents and gets you 3 miles, so that's 30 miles to the dollar, or about 90 miles for the price of a gallon of gas at $3.
    The piston engine is obsolete, and the technology to replace it is finally coming on stream, accelerated by the high price of oil.
    The only place you will find a V8 in 2040 will be a museum. :)
    ekg84 likes this.
  18. Jad Chaar

    Jad Chaar Elite Techno Geek Posts: 6,482   +978

    What about Hydrogen? Once we take away the need for precious metals, the cost will go way down. Also, natural gas can be an option, especially for trucks.
  19. GeforcerFX

    GeforcerFX TS Evangelist Posts: 875   +372

    shows you how young I am when I had to google him to see what your talking about :D

    True I think hydrogen would be good (if you havn't read my earlier posts), but would remain relatively expensive in certain places(away from sea or nuclear power). I think natural gas(including propane) and diesel powered electric trucks would be there future. The torque they get from electric motors is to good to pass up, but they need on board power generation units, batteries just won't cut it for them.
    Jad Chaar and captaincranky like this.
  20. Invading all those countries to steal their oil would all be for nothing if electric vehicles took over. There are videos of teenages on Youtube converting their fifteen year old cars to electric for less than nothing. Our government is controlled by corporations. There is just too much money in gasoline to allow electric vehicles to rule the road.
  21. captaincranky

    captaincranky TechSpot Addict Posts: 14,947   +3,993

    Dude, you must be huffing too much adhesive off the back of energy efficiency rating stickers in Best Buy's showroom. C'mon over to my place, it's about 16 cents @KwH.

    (Charges for the electricity itself, is about .10c a KwH, But with distribution, delivery, and what they used to call, "intangible charges", the price is bumped to closer to my number.

    You're not assuming electric companies are going to forgo the delivery charges, tax, and whatnot either, just because you're "green", are you? We've had "energy from renewable resources", pushing two decades, and that electricity, costs even more.

    (They just say 10 cents @KwH,, so they can get that crap out the door).
    Nah. We invade countries to steal oil, so we to run our now built in China Hum-Vees, to lend to Blackwater, for use in killing their civilians. Don't you know anything?:mad:
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2013
  22. Hopefully by then there is something a lot better than battery power.
  23. captaincranky

    captaincranky TechSpot Addict Posts: 14,947   +3,993

    BTW, Wow diesel electric? you just reinvented the locomotive. No, really.

    Actually there is, Overhead power lines! Just Google, "PRR GG1".

    Some additional food for thought: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrysler_Turbine_Car]

    Last edited: Dec 24, 2013
  24. Skidmarksdeluxe

    Skidmarksdeluxe TS Evangelist Posts: 8,647   +3,286

    Yeah, Safe containment in a motor vehicle will be a major hurdle to overcome. Remember the shuttle used 80's technology and we (or at least I) don't know how often new technologies were incorporated into it but there's only so much you can do before you have to start over with a clean sheet.
    Maybe hydrogen powered cars will never become mainstream but there's still a lot of research going on and could be some big breakthroughs (if motor vehicle industry doesn't take their safety cues from the Hindenberg).
  25. Jad Chaar

    Jad Chaar Elite Techno Geek Posts: 6,482   +978

    Yes, but that high cost comes from the precious metals used. They use platinum and gold in the fuel cell (I think in either the anode or cathode or PEM).

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