Global PC market sees 15 percent revenue boost despite notebook shipment downturn

Polycount

Posts: 3,011   +589
Staff member
In context: Since the start of 2020, PC sales have been steadily increasing, largely thanks to growth spurred by the Covid-19 pandemic. With millions of consumers working from home, demand for both personal and work computers has skyrocketed. However, that trend is finally starting to slow and even reverse -- somewhat, anyway.

As of Q1 2022, global shipments for desktops and notebooks have fallen by three percent, down from Q1 2021's all-time high of 82.4 million. This year, that number has dropped to around 80.1 million. HP took the biggest hit in this regard, shipping about 15.8 million units in Q1 2022 versus the 19.2 million they managed to move the previous year.

Lenovo is next in line, with shipments dropping by around two million year-over-year (going from 20.3m to 18.3m). Other major PC and laptop vendors, including Dell, Apple, Asus, and "Others," all saw minor shipment upticks but these were not substantial enough to offset the broader decline brought on by HP and Lenovo's poorer relative performance.

There are several potential reasons for these changes but tech research firm Canalys says rising short-term prices (brought on by the conflict in Ukraine, among other issues) and natural growth slow-downs as the world adapts to life amidst a global pandemic are two major contributors. The ongoing chip shortage certainly doesn't help, either, with component supply failing to meet demand, thus driving prices up further and pushing consumers into a "wait-and-see" mindset.

With all of those roadblocks in mind, Canalys still feels the PC industry as a whole will remain strong throughout the rest of the year; at least in the enterprise and IT sectors. As the research firm notes, over 50 percent of active devices are "more than four years old," meaning a widespread "device refresh" will likely happen sooner rather than later.

Indeed, despite shipments falling in the notebook sector, the PC industry enjoyed overall revenue growth of over 15 percent this past year, hitting $70 billion in total. This is partially thanks to a 12 percent increase in desktop shipments, though sales for such machines still pale in comparison to their notebook counterparts: the former make up 16.8 million of total shipments, versus the latter's 63.2 million.

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Achaios

Posts: 384   +1,056
QUOTE
rising short-term prices (brought on by the conflict in Ukraine, among other issues)
UNQUOTE

GPU prices here have gone up anywhere from +30 to +150 EUROS after the big price drop that happened in the end of March, that is in less than 15 days.

Mining must be picking up or they just found a new excuse to increase prices, the "war".

QUOTE
over 50 percent of active devices are "more than four years old," meaning a widespread "device refresh" will likely happen sooner rather than later.
UNQUOTE

This is so wrong, I will never replace my current 10-year old Haswell system nor my Skylake laptop unless either breaks down or fails.

Not in this market.
 

Squid Surprise

Posts: 5,335   +4,980
Mining must be picking up or they just found a new excuse to increase prices, the "war".

This is so wrong, I will never replace my current 10-year old Haswell system nor my Skylake laptop unless either breaks down or fails.
Well, even if you simply label it an "excuse", the war in Ukraine is very real - and it has severely impacted various pricing...

And while YOU might not be upgrading your PC... the average person most likely will.
 

MasterMace

Posts: 220   +173
What if I told you... Laptop sales have never been an indicator of the health of the PC market? Most of its sales are cheap products that break after a few years, and the primary customer who drove those sales switched to tablets.
 

Squid Surprise

Posts: 5,335   +4,980
What if I told you... Laptop sales have never been an indicator of the health of the PC market? Most of its sales are cheap products that break after a few years, and the primary customer who drove those sales switched to tablets.
Most think that laptop sales will surpass PC sales easily... and continue to do so for many years to come...

 

MasterMace

Posts: 220   +173
Most think that laptop sales will surpass PC sales easily... and continue to do so for many years to come...

Why don't you go back and re-read my comment, and you'll see I didn't say otherwise.

Just as low-end phone sales aren't an indicator of the health of the smartphone industry, laptops are also not an indicator of the health of the PC market. It doesn't matter if you sell a billion units and generated 4x the sales.
 

Squid Surprise

Posts: 5,335   +4,980
Why don't you go back and re-read my comment, and you'll see I didn't say otherwise.

Just as low-end phone sales aren't an indicator of the health of the smartphone industry, laptops are also not an indicator of the health of the PC market. It doesn't matter if you sell a billion units and generated 4x the sales.
I see you didn't read my article either... reply again when you do...
 

Squid Surprise

Posts: 5,335   +4,980
You linked (poorly) a year old article from an analyst who has no insight on the industry, and the majority of her articles are about how AI is changing the [insert trendy word here]
I see you missed the point... there are numerous similar articles that will tell you the same thing... that mobile PCs (AKA tablets and laptops) will be replacing MOST of what the PC does...

PC sales INCLUDE laptops - or should - and thus laptop sales WILL be an indicator of PC sales since that's what they actually are.
 

Aceseven

Posts: 315   +398
QUOTE
rising short-term prices (brought on by the conflict in Ukraine, among other issues)
UNQUOTE

GPU prices here have gone up anywhere from +30 to +150 EUROS after the big price drop that happened in the end of March, that is in less than 15 days.

Mining must be picking up or they just found a new excuse to increase prices, the "war".

QUOTE
over 50 percent of active devices are "more than four years old," meaning a widespread "device refresh" will likely happen sooner rather than later.
UNQUOTE

This is so wrong, I will never replace my current 10-year old Haswell system nor my Skylake laptop unless either breaks down or fails.

Not in this market.
The only part thats really troublesome to get is the GPU, and thats not an issue if you have cash to blow, or no patience, everything else is ready and waiting on shelves.

replaced my old 3770k last weekend with a 5800x and although its still paired with my 980ti the results are insane, I dont mind waiting a few weeks or months now on a decent priced gpu now
 

MasterMace

Posts: 220   +173
I see you missed the point... there are numerous similar articles that will tell you the same thing... that mobile PCs (AKA tablets and laptops) will be replacing MOST of what the PC does...

PC sales INCLUDE laptops - or should - and thus laptop sales WILL be an indicator of PC sales since that's what they actually are.
Except the market you're referring to is the Low-End PC market. These are PCs that do not require heavy computing to perform the tasks for which they were designed. Mobile computing also includes smartphones and phablets. You can find articles over many years showing the causation. When you research the Low-End PC market, you'll see the trends in the market have tablets, low-end laptops, and low-end desktops cannibalizing each other. One goes up the other(s) go down. Low-end desktops are consistently down. The past 2 years low-end desktops were flat, which compared to previous years is a huge improvement, but as the years continue they will once again fall.

2021 - Tablet sales stagnated 3.2% YoY from IDC
Statista even refers to the 'Tablets, laptops & PCs sales' as "Hardware"
IDC reported that Microsoft, Apple, and others have referred to detachable tablets as the market they are focusing on. They recognize the market is the same, and that the hybrid model is what the market wants, with even Nintendo recognizing that market demand when they made the Switch. Originally they referred to the devices as "hybrid", and "2-in-1" at CES 2011

2012-2017 - similarly, PCMag sourcing data from IDC:
00vyczagzvAdiqm1sVpNDfo-2.fit_lim.size_1600x900.v1569484309.jpg


Laptop sales go up, tablets go down. Tablets go up, laptops go down.
The sudden increase of sales in 2020 and 2021 of low-end PCs is entirely due to replacing older devices early because of the pandemic
Statista shows the lifespan of tablets was increasing to over 7 years old until 2020 when people suddenly spent more time using them and wanted to upgrade their old devices. The industry projections that this drop to less than 5 years old are will continue are likely going to be proven wrong, barring some other similar disaster.
Similarly, the sudden jump in low-end laptop sales will likely taper off and return to the previous average lifespans.

But the reason I'm mentioning that laptops don't show the health of the PC market is because, above the low-end, the PC market has been strong

Per Jon Peddie Research (JPR) - even before covid - the PC market has been healthily growing. Year over year, GPU, CPU, prebuilt - all of it has been growing, and is projected to grow.

peddie.jpg