Meta could make billions from TikTok ban, but the app's future remains uncertain

[midian182]

In brief: News that TikTok could escape the US ban that will be introduced on Sunday has brought joy to the millions of people who use the app in the US. But it's unlikely that rival platforms, especially Meta, will be celebrating. It's estimated that Mark Zuckerberg's firm would bring in up to $3.38 billion from freed up ad revenue should TikTok disappear from app stores.

On January 19, the day before Donald Trump is inaugurated, TikTok will be banned in the US as it has failed to divest its US operations. The ban is the result of a bill introduced last year designed to "protect the national security of the United States from the threat posed by foreign adversary controlled applications."

If the ban does come into effect and TikTok is removed from the Google Play and Apple App stores, its updates stop being rolled out for US users, or the US app is shut down altogether, one of the biggest beneficiaries will be Meta's social networks.

According to eMarketer (via Business Insider), TikTok generated $12.34 billion in US ad revenue in 2024. If the ban leads to the company losing 50% to 70% of said ad revenue, that leaves $6.17 billion to $8.64 billion worth of ads looking for a new platform.

The analysts forecast that Meta could see its ad revenue increase anywhere between $2.46 billion and $3.38 billion as a result of a TikTok ban. It could also give Meta's earnings per share a boost of up to 9%. YouTube and Snapchat would also benefit financially.

Their opinions on banning TikTok likely differ

US TikTok users are preparing for the worst. Many are jumping over to another Chinese social media app, RedNote, which you can download safely and securely right here. There's also been a 216% increase in the number of people learning Mandarin on the Duolingo language-learning app.

There is some good news for the TikTok faithful. While the Supreme Court is expected to uphold the ban, Trump recently said he is "considering" signing an executive order shortly after he takes office that would suspend enforcement of the law for 60 to 90 days.

Another piece of news that should cheer up TikTok users comes from NBC. It claims that the outgoing Biden administration does not plan to levy billions of dollars in fines against companies that allow access to TikTok in the US, deferring implementation of the law to the Trump administration.

Senators Ed Markey, Cory Booker, and Ron Wyden, all of whom voted for the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act last year, are also pushing for an extension to the ban's deadline. That would give TikTok time to find a way to keep its US operations afloat – assuming Trump doesn't convince Congress to repeal the law – even if it means selling its US business to Elon Musk.

Possibly the most telling sign that there's hope for TikTok is Meta's and Snap's share prices, which fell yesterday amid reports of the app potentially being saved.

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Meta could make billions from TikTok ban, but the app's future remains uncertain

 

[The Talking Tech]

I don't use TikTok, but it should not be sold neither removed from the U.S. even if China's government is behind the app, the Chinese won't stop there, they could use any of the other hundred Apps they produce including Temu to manage to get information from American consumers.

So what we need is better Cyber Security and less paranoia.

 

[VariableSpike]

I don't use TikTok, but it should not be sold neither removed from the U.S. even if China's government is behind the app, the Chinese won't stop there, they could use any of the other hundred Apps they produce including Temu to manage to get information from American consumers.

So what we need is better Cyber Security and less paranoia.

I mean, people have jumped onto rednote, an app that is much more connected to the Chinese Government and where people in China use it at the same time (hence the whole craze for learning mandarin and memes around interacrions between americans and Chinese people and breaking down barriers), so I feel its just had a streisand effect for those people to go "no, I don't want you to ban this place, and if you do, I will find one exactly like it", and like you said, the CCP can just pick a new popular app to mine data from if they want, it all reeks of irony anyway when most certainly the NSA, CIA, FBI and such are sniffing through data if US companies, so the whole principle should be to not have anyone spying on you not just China because its easy to say "China bad" (which it is, Xi is a dictator, the people have no democracy, there's oppression of minorities and state enforced group think, and the idiocy of comminism (actual communism, not the usual US "anything remotely left is commie") but this just seems to be an easy target for the US government to gain populism points with certain audiences)

 

[The Talking Tech]

I mean, people have jumped onto rednote, an app that is much more connected to the Chinese Government and where people in China use it at the same time (hence the whole craze for learning mandarin and memes around interacrions between americans and Chinese people and breaking down barriers), so I feel its just had a streisand effect for those people to go "no, I don't want you to ban this place, and if you do, I will find one exactly like it", and like you said, the CCP can just pick a new popular app to mine data from if they want, it all reeks of irony anyway when most certainly the NSA, CIA, FBI and such are sniffing through data if US companies, so the whole principle should be to not have anyone spying on you not just China because its easy to say "China bad" (which it is, Xi is a dictator, the people have no democracy, there's oppression of minorities and state enforced group think, and the idiocy of comminism (actual communism, not the usual US "anything remotely left is commie") but this just seems to be an easy target for the US government to gain populism points with certain audiences)

Agree...You absolutely nailed it.

 

[GABulldog]

As much as the data here is collected and sold by US businesses, China really don't need TikTok to collect data.

 

[passingposeidon]

I mean, people have jumped onto rednote, an app that is much more connected to the Chinese Government and where people in China use it at the same time (hence the whole craze for learning mandarin and memes around interacrions between americans and Chinese people and breaking down barriers), so I feel its just had a streisand effect for those people to go "no, I don't want you to ban this place, and if you do, I will find one exactly like it", and like you said, the CCP can just pick a new popular app to mine data from if they want, it all reeks of irony anyway when most certainly the NSA, CIA, FBI and such are sniffing through data if US companies, so the whole principle should be to not have anyone spying on you not just China because its easy to say "China bad" (which it is, Xi is a dictator, the people have no democracy, there's oppression of minorities and state enforced group think, and the idiocy of comminism (actual communism, not the usual US "anything remotely left is commie") but this just seems to be an easy target for the US government to gain populism points with certain audiences)

Ultimately however this is about the US government wanting to protect its own citizens from what they perceive as an outside threat. I think that it is in the interest of US citizens to be protected - the same as any country. It's one thing to have your own government spying on you (for the gain of your own country - in theory), but it's another to have the largest foreign power gathering information on you, to your own detriment.

The whole 'data mining' thing is another story, and should all these US institutions be doing the same thing to their own citizens? Well, ostensibly, if that data is used to protect their citizens (I.e. from terrorist attacks), that seems reasonable. However there is a boundary there which is obviously multi-faceted and complex and there's a whole host of rebuttals to my point that are very valid. It's complicated.

 

[FaTaL]

Meta could make billions from TikTok ban, but the app's future remains uncertain

LOL LMFAO hahahhahah. No.
Meta hasn't even come CLOSE to replicating TikToks algorithm...and they never will.

 

[FaTaL]

I mean, people have jumped onto rednote, an app that is much more connected to the Chinese Government and where people in China use it at the same time (hence the whole craze for learning mandarin and memes around interacrions between americans and Chinese people and breaking down barriers), so I feel its just had a streisand effect for those people to go "no, I don't want you to ban this place, and if you do, I will find one exactly like it", and like you said, the CCP can just pick a new popular app to mine data from if they want, it all reeks of irony anyway when most certainly the NSA, CIA, FBI and such are sniffing through data if US companies, so the whole principle should be to not have anyone spying on you not just China because its easy to say "China bad" (which it is, Xi is a dictator, the people have no democracy, there's oppression of minorities and state enforced group think, and the idiocy of comminism (actual communism, not the usual US "anything remotely left is commie") but this just seems to be an easy target for the US government to gain populism points with certain audiences)

dont believe all this rednote hype. Most of it is crap. I'm betting less than 5% of US TikTok users will actually migrate to Rednote.

 

[Win7user]

Anyone using anything Meta (Facebook) or China Google are just looking for trouble. I'm not chained to any social media platform, or corrupt search engine (or other G products) like China Google...I'll use GAB social media platform. I kinda like it when what I post, gets posted, and not labeled spam, or outright deleted, because someone doesn't like what I've posted!