Phone sales predicted to hit ten-year low, but 5G will spearhead recovery in 2021

midian182

Posts: 5,667   +43
Staff member

Analysts at CCS Insight believe that global demand for mobile phones in 2020 will be almost a quarter of a billion units lower than in 2019, representing a 13 percent YoY decline. They expect just 1.57 billion devices will be sold this year, the lowest in ten years.

It’s noted that while life is starting to return to normal in China and manufacturing ramps up in the country, the rest of the world is under lockdown. With shops closed, people stuck indoors, and jobs at risk, demand for handsets is expected to be very weak over the coming months. The decline will be significant in the second quarter, with global sales expected to be 29 percent lower than in Q2 2019.

“Data from China gives us a good indication of the effect that lockdowns and consumer uncertainty have on demand for phones. In January and February 2020, sales volume fell 44% from the same period in 2019. Early data from other countries that have introduced strict measures to fight the pandemic suggests similar declines,” writes Marina Koytcheva, vice president of forecasting at CCS Insight.

It’s expected that demand for mobile phones will remain low throughout the second half of the year, even when life, hopefully, returns to relative normality, with the usually strong Christmas quarter predicted to see 3 percent lower YoY sales.

While 2020 looks like it will be a grim one for phone makers, demand is expected grow by 12 percent in 2021 as the economy recovers, people make delayed purchases, and 5G becomes more widespread. CSS believes 2022 will be even better, with growth reaching 13 percent to almost 2 billion phones.

5G is a bright spot in the phone market right now. Despite the Covid-19 restrictions, it’s predicted that sales of 5G-enabled devices will reach 210 million units in 2020, ten times more than last year. As the handsets drop in price, they’re expected to spearhead the market’s recovery next year, and will account for 58 percent of all devices sold in 2024.

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Uncle Al

Posts: 6,925   +5,212
The projected recovery might be premature. Like the Spanish Flu, this virus promises to be a multi-year event with ebbs and tidies. How much this affects businesses keeping in operation has yet to be seen and if unemployment does the same, there simply may not be enough ready cash for people to continue to upgrade their phones on a regular basis unless the industry does some drastic cuts in prices ... only time will tell.
 
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QuantumPhysics

Posts: 2,647   +2,267
I woke up this morning, jumped on my phone and paid both my mortgages.

A whole lot of people won’t be able to do that.

A whole lot of people won’t even be able to pay their rent.

A whole lot of people can’t afford anything right now except on their credit cards.

I truly believe the priority won’t be buying $1000 smartphones, tablets or computers for a while.

We are most likely going to enter a period of Stagflation.

High unemployment.
High underemployment.
High inflation in the form of high cost of living.
And recession: ie people not wasting money on 5G tech because they are afraid to spend or simply don’t have money.

Thousands of people are about to be removed from the market by Covid19.

The world is changing forever right now.
 

amstech

Posts: 2,617   +1,788
Lots of stuff going around about 5G and radiation, people knocking down towers and what not.
 

p51d007

Posts: 2,364   +1,626
LOL, they think people will be spending money on crap like overpriced cell phones?
Not hardly! Even if this crap stops by the end of May, it will take 6-12 months IF THAT
to get things back on track. AND that is if they can come up with an effective vaccine
to combat this version of a corona virus.
 

Mr Majestyk

Posts: 358   +290
LOL, they think people will be spending money on crap like overpriced cell phones?
Not hardly! Even if this crap stops by the end of May, it will take 6-12 months IF THAT
to get things back on track. AND that is if they can come up with an effective vaccine
to combat this version of a corona virus.
It won’t stop by June, the third world will soon explode in numbers and they will have no chance of containing it. Watch Indonesia especially, they are basically doing nothing and you have 270 million mostly living in poverty. This global recession will be far worse than the GFC and many businesses will not survive. Many people won’t have a job to go back to. It could take a decade to recover from this.
 

wiyosaya

Posts: 5,119   +3,208
I would love to get some of whatever it is that these analysts are smoking especially when it comes to 5G predictions.