Smartphone sales predicted to fall 3% this year

midian182

Posts: 8,321   +103
Staff member
In brief: Despite new technologies such as folding phones, the smartphone market is predicted to decline by 3 percent this year. That’s the view of analyst firm CCS Insight, which has revised its initial prediction of 2 billion sales through 2019 down to 1.8 billion.

The slump has been blamed on familiar reasons: many smartphone owners are keeping their devices longer before upgrading; the weaker Chinese economy is having a negative effect; more people are choosing second-hand options, and flagship prices are skyrocketing.

In Western Europe, where sales have fallen 23 percent over the last six years, 35 percent of consumers said they would be keeping their current handset longer than their previous device. Only 13 percent of people said they would be upgrading faster than before.

“This trend has slammed the brakes on Western European markets, and we believe similar dynamics are now having a dramatic impact in the US, where we forecast sales will drop 9 percent in 2019,” said Marina Koytcheva, VP of forecasting.

CCS Insight has downgraded expectations in virtually every market. China is predicted to fall by nine percent, and while India is heading in the right direction, its sales are increasing by just five percent. The country is expected to show improved growth in the future, however, with sales reaching 400 million by 2023.

As many flagships are now priced over $1000, more consumers are cautious when it comes to buying a brand-new device, with the second-hand market becoming more of an appealing prospect.

One bright spot is 5G. While the technology might be in its infancy, CCS believes 220 million 5G-compatible phones will be sold next year. By 2023, that number is expected to have risen to 930 million, representing almost half of all phone sales.

“History has shown that the introduction of a new 'G' always helps to energize demand for new phones, and 5G will be no exception,” said Koytcheva.

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Uncle Al

Posts: 9,323   +8,512
You know, they package and distribute this kind of news like it is the end of the industry. They still sell one heck of a lot of phones, make significant profits and are in no danger of collapsing. Continued and constant growth is not possible and no businessman in his right mind hinges his business on that concept. A business that continues to make a profit is perfectly fine. If they occasionally have a growth spurt because of a new product or service, that's all good and well, but you don't set up your business to depend on that kind of growth ....
 

RedGuard

Posts: 127   +128
This is an accurate reflection because this year I have bought 3% less of 0 new devices.

I've already bought a new phone and will probably get another one in a month. That's what happens when you give your phone to somebody else and they drop it and the country you are in, if you don't want a 1000 euros Samsung or an Apple, it takes 3 weeks or more to get it.

I'm just glad I'm weeks away from leaving this hellhole forever.
 

Manrubio

Posts: 40   +11
This is an accurate reflection because this year I have bought 3% less of 0 new devices.

I've already bought a new phone and will probably get another one in a month. That's what happens when you give your phone to somebody else and they drop it and the country you are in, if you don't want a 1000 euros Samsung or an Apple, it takes 3 weeks or more to get it.

I'm just glad I'm weeks away from leaving this hellhole forever.
Where you at bro?
 

p51d007

Posts: 3,373   +3,042
Market saturation. Duh!
Now, the growth will be at a "typical" level. The Chinese/Indian & southern Asian markets have pretty much been flooded, which, were the last real open markets.
Perhaps NOW, instead of goofy gimmicks (how many cameras on the back??) they will now concentrate on REAL innovation, and, perhaps the insane markup in prices will start to relax and the price of this part of consumer electronics, will be like a lot of consumer electronics. With age & maturity, the price comes down.
 

QuantumPhysics

Posts: 6,308   +7,248
I personally use my iPhone XS Max 512GB as my video recorder.

I make 4K 60FPS videos for my Youtube and finalize them on the phone's iMovie app.

If I didn't need to use this phone that way, and I only used it "as a smartphone", I'd have never upgraded from the iPhone 7 Plus or 8 Plus. They had water resistance along with a great camera/recorder and were nowhere near as expensive as my iPhone X 256GB ($1250) or my XS Max ($1577).

As far as I'm concerned - and I can't be accused of being an apple hater - Apple's climax was the iPhone 6 Plus. Once they put a big screen on iPhone, it literally became perfect. The incremental upgrades only improved on that perfection, but only marginally.

There are lots of people out there content to stick with the 6, 7 or 8 Plus.

And when you think about it...why would I want to give up my fingerprint scanner?

Why would I want to give up my headphone jack if I didn't need to.

I understand making these things more water resistant, but they could have kept the headphone jack in at least one model.

All that said: people are tapped out. They are buying smartphones on credit cards. I personally buy on my Capital One Venture to accumulate over 1000 points in one shot. There has been NOTHING to justify upgrading from Galaxy 9 to 10 or XS MAX to whatever is coming beyond larger storage.

And these folding phones cost how much?

$1980?

$2600???

Both my house's mortgages don't exceed $1300 and you want me to spend twice that on a Hua Wei?

LOL NOPE.
 

QuantumPhysics

Posts: 6,308   +7,248
If you get a new phone every year or other year and you pay a premium everytime, your an !diot with an addiction.


For me, my smartphone is part of my business.

#1 It allows me to earn money (far more on Youtube than it cost for example).

#2 It allows me to consolidate all my email from various sources and my business.

#3 It allows me to stay in touch with my employees.

#4 It allows me to get tax write offs (anything I vlog is reported as 1099, so I can get tax write offs related to my cars, my vacations, etc).

There's nothing wrong with upgrading annually, so long as the phone is an appreciating asset or allows you to earn more than it's worth.
 

amstech

Posts: 2,651   +1,820
There's nothing wrong with upgrading annually, so long as the phone is an appreciating asset or allows you to earn more than it's worth.
I am not saying upgrading consistently is foolish for everyone, for some their phone is a very important and required asset for their position/requirements.
 

hahahanoobs

Posts: 4,675   +2,654
I buy used phones on Kijiji. Still rocking the LG G4, but looking at the new Motorola's for new OS and fingerprint reader on the cheap.