They won't be able to hold Kiev for long. Street fighting and guerrilla attacks will be too much for them.
Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal suspend Russian operations in response to Ukraine invasion
- Thread starter Jimmy2x
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I have to wonder how much more they will have for Kiev. As of this morning, they have launched almost 700 missiles. They are still having to concentrate in the far east of Ukraine and are shelling them hard. Also, they have lost more to Ukraine raids.
But anyway, I just can't see how Russia cares about civilian casualties.
Twice now they have agreed to a cease fire, and both times paused only long enough to start bombing the civilian escape corridors. There, they were targeting civilians.
Remember, it was originally only going to take a few days to capture all of Ukraine. I very much doubt now if Russia can even capture Kiev. They have already lost some hold on airports. They had to resort to commercial GPS, they are scavenging US built commercial planes for parts, and did you see the video of Russian troops stealing food from Ukrainian grocery stores?
Supply lines for the Russian Army already seem like a distant memory.
Last, Ukraine has taken back Chuhuiv. One of the first cities lost early on, and very near Russia's border.
Ukraine ‘takes back city from Russia and kills two high-ranking commanders’
Ukraine's defence officials claim they have retaken control of the eastern city of Chuhuiv.
metro.co.uk
Ukrainian forces retake control of northeastern town, Ukrainian official say
Ukrainian forces have retaken control of the town of Chuhuiv in northeastern Ukraine, presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych told a briefing on Monday.
www.reuters.com
Last edited:
In the first days more than 1k strategic military points (mostly air defense systems, airports etc it seems) of Ukraine were destroyed but Russians didn't use very heavy air bombardment after that, this was what I meant. I doubt they planned to invade whole country within days but they probably anticipated that Zelenskiy would give up quickly.I have to wonder how much more they will have for Kiev. As of this morning, they have launched almost 700 missiles. They are still having to concentrate in the far east of Ukraine and are shelling them hard. Also, they have lost more to Ukraine raids.
But anyway, I just can't see how Russia cares about civilian casualties.
Twice now they have agreed to a cease fire, and both times paused only long enough to start bombing the civilian escape corridors. There, they were targeting civilians.
Remember, it was originally only going to take a few days to capture all of Ukraine. I very much doubt now if Russia can even capture Kiev. They have already lost some hold on airports. They had to resort to commercial GPS, they are scavenging US built commercial planes for parts, and did you see the video of Russian troops stealing food from Ukrainian grocery stores?
Supply lines for the Russian Army already seem like a distant memory.
Last, Ukraine has taken back Chuhuiv. One of the first cities lost early on, and very near Russia's border.
Ukraine ‘takes back city from Russia and kills two high-ranking commanders’
Ukraine's defence officials claim they have retaken control of the eastern city of Chuhuiv.
Ukrainian forces retake control of northeastern town, Ukrainian official say
Ukrainian forces have retaken control of the town of Chuhuiv in northeastern Ukraine, presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych told a briefing on Monday.
By the way, as I see it, a very important goal for Russians was to capture the cities near black sea.
Let's not fool ourselves, they won't stop till Zelenskiy steps down and a puppet administration is established.
kiwigraeme
Posts: 1,993 +1,404
We don't even know what the Russians destroyed - whether dummies etc.
You forget 2 things - one I learn as a 8 year old who had lots of fights at school till I was 15 - It does not matter if someone is stronger, more skilled etc - you can still win if they have fear - and they can not handle getting hurt - use to laugh at people who said they fought better drunk - that simply means you are not a fighter - I had just enough fear in a fight - I didn't worry about a broken nose , lost teeth etc - I used my opponents fear and calmly cut them down - TBf it helped big time I fought my older brothers and their friends for fun - some of them threw me around like ragdoll
- I had no fear of the biggest highschool gang of bullies - they could beat the **** out of me - but they knew I would get them one by one - one of them ran to that gang for protection - when straight for him - he just bolted - POS smirk to fearUkraine does not have numbers ( well they kind of do ) - but they have home town advantage . they are a much higher trained army - they are getting excellent tactic wins.
Lastly they want to win - they know life under Russian heel is no life.
Many Russian soldiers are scared conscripts - trying to earn money for their family . They see they have been abandon , used as canon fodder , lied to , bodies left unhonoured , unburied . They are tired , cold , hungry , little sleep - sitting ducks - Many people in armies never kill - It takes a lot of training to make some humans kill . Lots of British , Americans in WW2 chose sometimes not to fire guns at humans. Is not easy to kill someone up close - feet on the ground - ta ta ta ta goes the AK47 fired randomly at nothing - actually fired a AK47 in Pakistan - was accurate enough - very easy gun to use - as no recoil - small bullets - don't care for guns - but a woman tourist I was with wanted someone to share the cost - They make a ripoffs there - Not stupid gave us the real ones
kiwigraeme
Posts: 1,993 +1,404
Two interesting articles pre war by high ranking Russians
[HEADING=2]Ex Red army general and current opposition figure Leonid Ivashov's warning to putin before the war[/HEADING]
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/search?q=flair_name:"Russian Protest"&restrict_sr=1
Silver-haired Red Army general Leonid Ivashov, “Out of fifteen republics of the USSR, Ukraine had given us more headache than any other.”
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov spoke out vocally against hypothetical Russia's war with Ukraine. As the chairman of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, the general who’s known for his pro-Soviet and patriotic views, had written and signed an open letter addressed to president Putin and citizens of Russia.
He sat down for an interview with a host of the liberal radio station Echo of Moscow to assess risks and consequences of a military invasion, blamed the escalation on President Putin, and demanded his resignation.
I’m posting highlights from the interview with the focus on the military aspects below.
“My open letter was an anti-war statement. It expressed collective opinion of the retired army officers and generals, members of All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, and after our discussion, as the chairman, I signed the letter.
“We at the Assembly have received a wealth of military experience and first class military higher education.
“We acknowledge that preparations for a war with Ukraine have been well under way including diplomatic negotiations, with groupings of troops massed on the border. In such conditions, one gun shot might provoke a conflict with ensuing dire consequences. If extensive military actions begin, tens of thousands of young men will die.
“I served as a military diplomat and sat behind the table with Nato and European top brass, and I can tell you that people who want a war the least are generals, while politicians can easily start it over for the sake of for example winning re-elections. Politicians don’t hold any responsibility and shift all the blame on to the military. And when there’s a victory, politicians own it.”
“In the 1990s, we observed Nato’s planned military exercises and reacted by conducting our own planned military exercises, manoeuvres, missile lunches, etc.
“All that didn’t pose any critical dangers. Our military and civil leadership should have been taking initiative into their own hands, and without any hysterical ultimatum like “give us answer tomorrow. Fulfil our demands right away.”
“As the head of International Military Cooperation Department, I persuaded Minister of Defence to prepare a collective plan of European Security. It was well received although Americans and the English blocked it.
“Nonetheless, we pressed on, step by step, to deescalate the level of tensions. Our European colleagues always responded well to our suggestions and we found solutions to problems together. War is, as they say, the last resort.
“We have discussed at the assembly why Putin is triggering the last resort and arrived at the only plausible conclusion: Russia is going through a systemic crises that the leadership cannot put a check on. In every sphere of economy - healthcare, culture, education, etc - everywhere is degradation and collapse.
“My personal impression is that Putin is tired of Russia. And he wants to be finished with it, because a large-scale war would result in the disappearance of Russia as an integral, big country.
“As a civilisation it was over for us after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. After this escapade, we’ll be finished as a country.
“It won’t be a blitzkrieg, a walk in the park. This will be a mass-scale war with tens of thousands of killed and maimed soldiers on both sides.
“Even if we conquer Kiev, we’ll have to dig in and build garrisons and fight partisan movements. We’ll have to use our entire nation’s energies and resources to keep some semblance of order in Ukraine. It is savagery. Absolute savagery.
“And what for? For the sake of decades of military confrontation? Of course, some parties in the West would feel joyful. Gas won’t flow from Russia, and it will never be a competitor again. It will be an awful geopolitical catastrophe. And that’s the reason why we took a stand against it.
“I repeat, there’s no critical situation. I can't name a single European country that wants a war between Russia and Ukraine. And even Americans who wouldn’t find Ukraine on the map will protest and there will be a public resonance if just a dozen American soldiers die in this war. So I don’t see anyone who actively wants this war.
“To me the West has always been an opponent and a rival, but I was surprised how they reacted to our ultimatum. They didn’t escalate the situation, but offered a negotiating process.
“Instead, our ultimatum has united the entire Western world against us. And not only the West. India has just rejected to purchase 1700 Russian tanks, which will spell the end of our tank industry exports.
“There’s an easy way to stop it. Putin calls Zelensky and offers to meet in a neutral country and talk. The other option that can stop the war is public outcry.
“And I don’t mean those so-called experts on TV who talk about taking over Ukraine in ten days, or a few hours. I suggest that the senior leadership’s, bankers’ and business elite’s and talk shows hosts’ children take assault rifles in their own hands and join the front chain of the attack. Only then those people would play an active role in stopping this war not to get their children in body bags.
“Mass media shouldn’t be the instrument of war, the role they have performed since 2014 when instead of using kindness to resolve our differences with Ukraine, they engaged in aggression to widen that chasm between us and anger each other. That spilled blood will separate us forever into enemies’ camps.
“Once we cross into Ukrainian territory, they will receive all the weapons that they need, and thousands of volunteers will join the army to fight.
“76.6% per center of our members, which includes retired police officers and special forces, share this opinion. Bottom line, our goal is to stop this bloody tragedy from happening.
“Assault troops are still massed on the border with Ukraine and Putin after his return from Beijing didn’t order to pull them back. That means that hostilities can start at any moment.
“Resignation of Putin will give Russia a small chance to keep Russia’s statehood going. It’s what we’re counting on.
“You have to understand one thing. When Putin was propelled to this scale of of power, he knew nothing. It’s only with time that he learned and was exploited by all sorts of individuals.
“Any man with regional managerial experience that will take his place, the first thing he’ll do is hire professionals. PROFESSIONALS. Professionals with proper education and experience. Yes, in a way that will be a ‘technical’ president, but he will surround himself with people who have professional knowledge.
“At this time, much depends on Putin. There needs to be a clear-minded person in his circle who will give it to him straight - ‘as a commander in chief and a mastermind of this war, you will carry full responsibility and go on international trial like those war criminals in Nuremberg.’
“We have to stop this absolutely unnecessary war.”
2nd article
russiandefpolicy.com
First guy was pretty much spot on first one 14th Feb
[HEADING=2]Ex Red army general and current opposition figure Leonid Ivashov's warning to putin before the war[/HEADING]
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/search?q=flair_name:"Russian Protest"&restrict_sr=1
Silver-haired Red Army general Leonid Ivashov, “Out of fifteen republics of the USSR, Ukraine had given us more headache than any other.”
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov spoke out vocally against hypothetical Russia's war with Ukraine. As the chairman of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, the general who’s known for his pro-Soviet and patriotic views, had written and signed an open letter addressed to president Putin and citizens of Russia.
He sat down for an interview with a host of the liberal radio station Echo of Moscow to assess risks and consequences of a military invasion, blamed the escalation on President Putin, and demanded his resignation.
I’m posting highlights from the interview with the focus on the military aspects below.
“My open letter was an anti-war statement. It expressed collective opinion of the retired army officers and generals, members of All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, and after our discussion, as the chairman, I signed the letter.
“We at the Assembly have received a wealth of military experience and first class military higher education.
“We acknowledge that preparations for a war with Ukraine have been well under way including diplomatic negotiations, with groupings of troops massed on the border. In such conditions, one gun shot might provoke a conflict with ensuing dire consequences. If extensive military actions begin, tens of thousands of young men will die.
“I served as a military diplomat and sat behind the table with Nato and European top brass, and I can tell you that people who want a war the least are generals, while politicians can easily start it over for the sake of for example winning re-elections. Politicians don’t hold any responsibility and shift all the blame on to the military. And when there’s a victory, politicians own it.”
“In the 1990s, we observed Nato’s planned military exercises and reacted by conducting our own planned military exercises, manoeuvres, missile lunches, etc.
“All that didn’t pose any critical dangers. Our military and civil leadership should have been taking initiative into their own hands, and without any hysterical ultimatum like “give us answer tomorrow. Fulfil our demands right away.”
“As the head of International Military Cooperation Department, I persuaded Minister of Defence to prepare a collective plan of European Security. It was well received although Americans and the English blocked it.
“Nonetheless, we pressed on, step by step, to deescalate the level of tensions. Our European colleagues always responded well to our suggestions and we found solutions to problems together. War is, as they say, the last resort.
“We have discussed at the assembly why Putin is triggering the last resort and arrived at the only plausible conclusion: Russia is going through a systemic crises that the leadership cannot put a check on. In every sphere of economy - healthcare, culture, education, etc - everywhere is degradation and collapse.
“My personal impression is that Putin is tired of Russia. And he wants to be finished with it, because a large-scale war would result in the disappearance of Russia as an integral, big country.
“As a civilisation it was over for us after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. After this escapade, we’ll be finished as a country.
“It won’t be a blitzkrieg, a walk in the park. This will be a mass-scale war with tens of thousands of killed and maimed soldiers on both sides.
“Even if we conquer Kiev, we’ll have to dig in and build garrisons and fight partisan movements. We’ll have to use our entire nation’s energies and resources to keep some semblance of order in Ukraine. It is savagery. Absolute savagery.
“And what for? For the sake of decades of military confrontation? Of course, some parties in the West would feel joyful. Gas won’t flow from Russia, and it will never be a competitor again. It will be an awful geopolitical catastrophe. And that’s the reason why we took a stand against it.
“I repeat, there’s no critical situation. I can't name a single European country that wants a war between Russia and Ukraine. And even Americans who wouldn’t find Ukraine on the map will protest and there will be a public resonance if just a dozen American soldiers die in this war. So I don’t see anyone who actively wants this war.
“To me the West has always been an opponent and a rival, but I was surprised how they reacted to our ultimatum. They didn’t escalate the situation, but offered a negotiating process.
“Instead, our ultimatum has united the entire Western world against us. And not only the West. India has just rejected to purchase 1700 Russian tanks, which will spell the end of our tank industry exports.
“There’s an easy way to stop it. Putin calls Zelensky and offers to meet in a neutral country and talk. The other option that can stop the war is public outcry.
“And I don’t mean those so-called experts on TV who talk about taking over Ukraine in ten days, or a few hours. I suggest that the senior leadership’s, bankers’ and business elite’s and talk shows hosts’ children take assault rifles in their own hands and join the front chain of the attack. Only then those people would play an active role in stopping this war not to get their children in body bags.
“Mass media shouldn’t be the instrument of war, the role they have performed since 2014 when instead of using kindness to resolve our differences with Ukraine, they engaged in aggression to widen that chasm between us and anger each other. That spilled blood will separate us forever into enemies’ camps.
“Once we cross into Ukrainian territory, they will receive all the weapons that they need, and thousands of volunteers will join the army to fight.
“76.6% per center of our members, which includes retired police officers and special forces, share this opinion. Bottom line, our goal is to stop this bloody tragedy from happening.
“Assault troops are still massed on the border with Ukraine and Putin after his return from Beijing didn’t order to pull them back. That means that hostilities can start at any moment.
“Resignation of Putin will give Russia a small chance to keep Russia’s statehood going. It’s what we’re counting on.
“You have to understand one thing. When Putin was propelled to this scale of of power, he knew nothing. It’s only with time that he learned and was exploited by all sorts of individuals.
“Any man with regional managerial experience that will take his place, the first thing he’ll do is hire professionals. PROFESSIONALS. Professionals with proper education and experience. Yes, in a way that will be a ‘technical’ president, but he will surround himself with people who have professional knowledge.
“At this time, much depends on Putin. There needs to be a clear-minded person in his circle who will give it to him straight - ‘as a commander in chief and a mastermind of this war, you will carry full responsibility and go on international trial like those war criminals in Nuremberg.’
“We have to stop this absolutely unnecessary war.”
2nd article
Mass Fire Strike on Ukraine
In NVO, Mikhail Khodarenok has written about how a possible Russian Army campaign in Ukraine won’t be any cake walk. Here’s a translation.
russiandefpolicy.com
First guy was pretty much spot on first one 14th Feb
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