Weekend Open Forum: Technology predictions for 2013

By on December 21, 2012, 6:39 PM

Earlier this week, IBM shared what it expects to see over the next five years in technology, with several scientists predicting that computers will become more intelligent and human-like. Although we're not daring enough to gaze half a decade into the future, we thought it'd be fun to see what everyone thinks will unfold over the next year.

To kick things off, we've included predictions from most of our staff along with widgets so you can rate them. Naturally, we also want to hear your technology predictions for 2013 in the comments.

  

We'll hear more about augmented reality and wearable computing devices as companies eye the post-smartphone market.

 
  

Apple will start offering more video content through Apple TV. No TV set. No revolutionary set-top box, yet. The latter will be introduced eventually in partnership with cable operators but won't be ready for 2013.

 
 

Windows 8 will succeed on desktops, flourish with touch-enabled laptops but utterly fail on pure tablets.

 
  

AMD will beat Nvidia to the punch, releasing its Radeon HD 8000 series in early 2013. Months later, it will disappoint early adopters by slashing prices and releasing overclocked cards to remain relevant -- sound familiar?

 
  

I believe 2013 will bring a greater emphasis on the smartphone as the tablet trend begins to slowly fade. Larger handsets like the Galaxy Note II are already proving that a handset can accomplish most tasks that a tablet is capable of. More powerful mobile processors will only accelerate this movement.

 
 

My prediction for 2013 is that digital camera manufacturers will finally stop the decade-long megapixel race and start advertising what really matters: sensor sizes and lenses.

 
  

There will be brand-name WQHD (2560x1440ish) desktop monitors under $500 in 2013.

 

Image via Chris Whetzel




User Comments: 52

Got something to say? Post a comment
Guest said:

Microsoft will go to keyholder market and release an extension for Windows 8, on keyholder will be remote button, the Start Button and if you push that will call the Windows 8 secret Start Menu on the Screen. 2.99$

Burty117 Burty117, TechSpot Chancellor, said:

I Predict that we will have an announcement for a revolutionary breakthrough in battery technology, but nothing will come of it for 5 years + ...

TomSEA TomSEA, TechSpot Chancellor, said:

Julio's just trying to stir the pot...

cliffordcooley cliffordcooley, TechSpot Paladin, said:

I predict that while walking/driving and texting becomes even more of a problem, technology will shift to speech recognition and phones that read your text messages for you.

JC713 JC713 said:

I Predict that we will have an announcement for a revolutionary breakthrough in battery technology, but nothing will come of it for 5 years + ...

the story of all tech lol. I think the flexible display will flourish, and the Galaxy S4--if it has a flexible display-- will compete further with the iPhone.

1 person liked this | Guest said:

I predict that Apple will release another iteration of it's crap people will rush to buy, Microsoft will continue to try to push Windows 8, even though Windows 7 is clearly better unless you're using an all-in-one, and lastly that electronics will get a little smaller, and probably a little cheaper, though not by near as much as it's getting cheaper to make them.

Oh wait, all that crap's pretty obvious.

NTAPRO NTAPRO said:

I can predict that people will complain about Apple's products but apple will not care

oh wait

Why is it that megapixels don't really matter and why is the sensor more important? I've always wanted a camera

Guest said:

I can predict the end of world !!!

;)

5 people like this | TS-56336 TS-56336 said:

PC Gaming will rule in 2013, beating next-gen consoles to the floor.

Guest said:

I predict new iPhone (maybe iPhone 5S) released by apple, and of course apple tv :D

Staff
Per Hansson Per Hansson, TS Server Guru, said:

Why is it that megapixels don't really matter and why is the sensor more important? I've always wanted a camera

This little blog has some technical details on it: http://6mpixel.org/en/

It comes down to the fact that increasing the megapixel count results in pixel bleeding, that is the sensor can't make out what type of light is hitting each sensor on the CCD. This results in very poor photographs, especially in low-light conditions.

It's akin to increasing the voltage to a processor when overclocking it, as long as the frequency scales linearly with voltage everything works quite well. But after a while you hit a wall where voltage increases more than frequency: the excess voltage is converted to heat and indeed the reason is it bleeds over from one transistor to the next (This results in a BSOD or data corruption)

Intel realized this a decade ago and scratched the Pentium 4 in favor of the older Pentium 3 that had by then evolved into the "Core" architecture which we use still today.

You could compare the small point and shoot cameras of today to Pentium 4 CPU's: brute force to look good on paper (More GHZ equals better in consumer minds, nevermind that the Pentium 3 at 1.3Ghz can beat a Pentium 4 at 2Ghz in many benchmarks...)

The equivalent to the "Core" architecture is DSLR cameras and also the new "Four Thirds" camera systems utilizing large sensors in small camera bodies.

Staff
Julio Franco Julio Franco, TechSpot Editor, said:

Looks like I'm losing, we'll see a year from now when we repeat the feature

misor misor said:

Due to sony financial troubles, I predict that the next console after playstation 4 and xbox720 (or whatever) will be called playstation x, a joint production of microsoft and sony.

the project will kickstart late in 2013 under a mou.

console gamers rejoice!

red1776 red1776, Omnipotent Ruler of the Universe, said:

@ Rick, Great minds and so forth. I said the same thing last week:

Exactly. as Intel is demonstrating there is a lot of life left in Moore's law. My money is on the introduction of super high res/multi-monitor/ low cost setups to make 2560 the standard. Overall the GPU industry (sales) have bucked the economic trend since the economy tanked. I don't think they will let it go without at least am attempt at a trend changer. $300 2560's? 3x1080P with stand for $ 400?

[link]

Guest said:

Wireless charging?

Guest said:

Smarter smart stuff... smarter dumb stuff...dumber smart stuff, too.

Sub-mini iPad/Nexus strapped to wrist.

Algae Bio-crude will get established as a viable & economic energy source, but wind will blow out.

LED lighting will become truly competitive, and really begin replacing CFLs and halogens.

Fewer folks will have the education necessary to get the jobs that still exist.

Kahn Academy et al. will reach more people worldwide and expensive sources for education will attack the where/what/how of what they offer.

Groasis waterboxx will be established as a viable method for greening the desert, sequestering huge amounts of CO2.

The EPA will be identified as a source of Global Warming - not due to hot air, but due to past success in removing particulate matter from the atmosphere.

klepto12 klepto12, TechSpot Paladin, said:

Why is it that megapixels don't really matter and why is the sensor more important? I've always wanted a camera

This little blog has some technical details on it: http://6mpixel.org/en/

It comes down to the fact that increasing the megapixel count results in pixel bleeding, that is the sensor can't make out what type of light is hitting each sensor on the CCD. This results in very poor photographs, especially in low-light conditions.

It's akin to increasing the voltage to a processor when overclocking it, as long as the frequency scales linearly with voltage everything works quite well. But after a while you hit a wall where voltage increases more than frequency: the excess voltage is converted to heat and indeed the reason is it bleeds over from one transistor to the next (This results in a BSOD or data corruption)

Intel realized this a decade ago and scratched the Pentium 4 in favor of the older Pentium 3 that had by then evolved into the "Core" architecture which we use still today.

You could compare the small point and shoot cameras of today to Pentium 4 CPU's: brute force to look good on paper (More GHZ equals better in consumer minds, nevermind that the Pentium 3 at 1.3Ghz can beat a Pentium 4 at 2Ghz in many benchmarks...)

The equivalent to the "Core" architecture is DSLR cameras and also the new "Four Thirds" camera systems utilizing large sensors in small camera bodies.

You do realize that intel actually used the mobile cpus as there base for core? why would they use pentium 3? look up your facts man.

H3llion H3llion, TechSpot Paladin, said:

China Overtaking US in Scientific Research.

Solar flares are disrupting the Earth's magnetosphere

3D technologies are widespread

Highly flexible touch sensors are appearing in a range of gadgets

Full-body scanners are mandatory in US airports

Direct high-speed rail from London to Frankfurt and Amsterdam

14 nanometre chips enter mass production

Source: [link]

cliffordcooley cliffordcooley, TechSpot Paladin, said:

You do realize that intel actually used the mobile cpus as there base for core? why would they use pentium 3? look up your facts man.
I think Per was referring to Intel abandoning the P4 slot architecture in favor of the older P3 socket architecture. And if I'm not mistaken wasn't the mobile design a spin-off from the P3 architect?

captaincranky captaincranky, TechSpot Addict, said:

Why is it that megapixels don't really matter and why is the sensor more important? I've always wanted a camera
Part of it is a mechanical issue of, "angle of acceptance". As you decrease the size of the individual pixel, the light must be closer and closer to a true right angle to enter it.

This is an effect you could interpret in a monitor or TV also. As the size of a TN panel decreases, the acceptable viewing angle decreases, and IMO, fairly dramatically. (Other panels obviously suffer this effect as well). But, you can view a 40" TV from just about any angle and get the same result. (Different panel tech, plus way more pixel size).

The second issue is noise, and the S/N ratio tends to get better as the pixel size increases. The inverse is true, in that it requires better tech and construction, to get rid of the noise in smaller sensor units. Likely improvement in the firmware as well.

A present there is a market upsurge in "full frame DSLR" offerings. "Full frame" is considered to be having a sensor the same size as a 35mm negative, or 24 X 36mm. These are what have been considered "pro cameras" for years.

Ironically, "digital lenses" have been developed to compensate for the smaller sensors and light entry angle. ("Digital lenses", if designed properly, bend the output to the sensor back to straight, after the image production has been completed). Unfortunately, these lenses are designed for smaller sensors, and their, "coverage circle" falls far short of the 35mm frame size. Now, the pendulum will swing back towards to the older format 35mm coverage circle designs. I suppose the moral here is, I hope everybody held onto their old 35 mm lenses, you're liable to be needing them.

tonylukac said:

I'm waiting for cheap touch screen monitors. That will be more reason to use my dual boot windows 8 desktops. Ironically, one motherboard is now failing since I upgraded to win 8.

captaincranky captaincranky, TechSpot Addict, said:

...[ ]... Ironically, one motherboard is now failing since I upgraded to win 8.
Maybe it's committing a slow, dramatized suicide in protest to the Windows 8....:eek:

NTAPRO NTAPRO said:

Oh I see. I guess I'll wait a little while longer to pick up a camera then.

Is anyone else having weird notifications? I've been noticing this for a while now:

captaincranky captaincranky, TechSpot Addict, said:

Oh I see. I guess I'll wait a little while longer to pick up a camera then.

Is anyone else having weird notifications? I've been noticing this for a while now:

It's one of those so called, "known issues". Here's the thread: [link] I do a lot of "post post" editing. I wonder if the system is picking that up. Although, a posting to a thread you're merely following usually provokes a minimum of 2 alert entries. To clarify, the captioned numerical count of alerts is correct, but there are always multiple entries in the text portion..

cliffordcooley cliffordcooley, TechSpot Paladin, said:

I do a lot of "post post" editing. I wonder if the system is picking that up.
Thats part of it. I noticed I was getting notifications everytime someone edited a comment with one of my quotes in it. I also noticed that if I temporarily ignore the notification and use the backup button the same notification will sometimes increment +1.

ET3D, TechSpot Paladin, said:

Maybe not in 2013, but people will start realising that a 7" "phone" is actually a tablet. No, probably not.

Archean Archean, TechSpot Paladin, said:

On flexible screens:

I am not sure I really need a 'bendy' phone TBH.

On Julio's prediction:

Not sure about succession on desktop 'only', as except from 'negative' perception of its touch friendly UI, there is absolutely nothing to dislike it. On the touch side, it is ahead in someways compared to competition. MS needs to 'modernize' office's UI for touchscreens, 2013 is not yet there IMHO. But it is something which can be fixed given what little time they may have bought themselves.

On Klepto's comments:

Intel's 'P6' architecture served as the reference for development of Core architecture, P6 family included P2/3, Pentium Pro, Mobile Pentrium/II/III etc.

I think 2013 will be the year Intel 'may' start to make inroads into mobile segment, with the roll out of their <=10W SoCs (Haswell). Perhaps by the time Broadwell rolls out (2014), they will be very near to competition in terms of power/performance equation.

captaincranky captaincranky, TechSpot Addict, said:

I predict that very soon, people will become so infatuated with computer toy tablets, they will forsake all other aspects of their lives, and begin to stare endlessly at their own reflections in the shiny screen, long after the batteries have gone dead. Perhaps even long after they've been killed in a traffic accident, caused by them staring at the screen.

In a future enlightened world, perhaps we will be able to accept and embrace "good riddance", as a socially acceptable tombstone epitaph, and bury the dearly departed's f***ing iPad with them.

I really wish the people of Pompeii had had iPads. It would be great fun to dig them up and find out they didn't even try to run from the volcano, they were too busy playing "Angy Birds", or some other such s***.:oops:

(Aw shecks, y'all know I'm jus' kiddin', don't cha)?

1 person liked this | cliffordcooley cliffordcooley, TechSpot Paladin, said:

I really wish the people of Pompeii had had iPads. It would be great fun to dig them up and find out they didn't even try to run from the volcano, they were too busy playing "Angy Birds", or some other such s***.:oops:

(Aw shecks, y'all know I'm jus' kiddin', don't cha)?

I wonder if the captain of the Titanic had an ipad? lol

captaincranky captaincranky, TechSpot Addict, said:

I wonder if the captain of the Titanic had an ipad? lol
I suspect he probably did, and was taking a picture of the iceberg while simultaneously trying to set as wallpaper when he hit it.

Just think, an "unsinkable ship", and an "unbreakable" iPad, what cold possibly go wrong there...?

Staff
Per Hansson Per Hansson, TS Server Guru, said:

Intel realized this a decade ago and scratched the Pentium 4 in favor of the older Pentium 3 that had by then evolved into the "Core" architecture which we use still today.

You do realize that intel actually used the mobile cpus as there base for core? why would they use pentium 3? look up your facts man.

Uhh, maybe before trying to teach someone to look up their facts you should do the same first? [link]

"The Pentium M represented a new and radical departure for Intel, as it was not a low-power version of the desktop-oriented Pentium 4, but instead a heavily modified version of the Pentium III Tualatin design (itself based on the Pentium Pro core design)."

Guest said:

I predict in 2013 we can make big robots as in this movie :p

[video embed]

klepto12 klepto12, TechSpot Paladin, said:

Intel realized this a decade ago and scratched the Pentium 4 in favor of the older Pentium 3 that had by then evolved into the "Core" architecture which we use still today.

You do realize that intel actually used the mobile cpus as there base for core? why would they use pentium 3? look up your facts man.

Uhh, maybe before trying to teach someone to look up their facts you should do the same first? [link]

"The Pentium M represented a new and radical departure for Intel, as it was not a low-power version of the desktop-oriented Pentium 4, but instead a heavily modified version of the Pentium III Tualatin design (itself based on the Pentium Pro core design)."

lol ok The Intel Core micro-architecture (previously known as the Next-Generation Micro-Architecture, or NGMA) is a multi-core processor micro-architecture unveiled by Intel in Q1 2006. It is based around an updated version of the Yonah core and could be considered the latest iteration of the P6 microarchitecture, which traces its history back to the Pentium Pro introduced in 1995.The Core microarchitecture was designed by Israel's Intel Israel (IDC) team that previously designed the Pentium M mobile processor.[1]

The first processors that used this architecture were code-named Merom, Conroe, and Woodcrest; Merom is for mobile computing, Conroe is for desktop systems, and Woodcrest is for servers and workstations.

Yonah was the code name for (the core of) Intel's first generation of 65 nm process mobile microprocessors, based on the Banias/Dothan-core Pentium M microarchitecture. SIMD performance has been improved through the addition of SSE3 instructions and improvements to SSE and SSE2 implementations, while integer performance decreased slightly due to higher latency cache. Additionally, Yonah includes support for the NX bit.

captaincranky captaincranky, TechSpot Addict, said:

I predict in 2013 we can make big robots as in this movie :p

So what you're saying is the "Transformers" aren't real? Thanks a lot buddy, you just ruined my Christmas.

I think you're wrong though, Santa can't possibly haul that many packages with a sleigh and "eight tiny reindeer".

Lurker101 said:

So what you're saying is the "Transformers" aren't real? Thanks a lot buddy, you just ruined my Christmas.

Actually, they are real

soldier1969 soldier1969 said:

Windows 8 will become more of a failure. Next gen consoles will be announced but wont go on sale until 2014 and already be outdated by current PC standards. Flexible rollable cell screens will be released (Galaxy S4/Note 3) Batteries for laptops break the 8-10 hr barrier doubling in longevity same for cells phones. 27-30 inch screens for PC will become the norm. 1080p will start to become stale as higher res tablets/laptops will become the norm. Still waiting for a 30 inch led 2560 x 1600 display or 4K for under 2 grand.

soldier1969 soldier1969 said:

Due to sony financial troubles, I predict that the next console after playstation 4 and xbox720 (or whatever) will be called playstation x, a joint production of microsoft and sony.

the project will kickstart late in 2013 under a mou.

console gamers rejoice!

Choke. consoles really?

madboyv1, TechSpot Paladin, said:

Why is it that megapixels don't really matter and why is the sensor more important? I've always wanted a camera
Part of it is a mechanical issue of, "angle of acceptance". As you decrease the size of the individual pixel, the light must be closer and closer to a true right angle to enter it.

This is an effect you could interpret in a monitor or TV also. As the size of a TN panel decreases, the acceptable viewing angle decreases, and IMO, fairly dramatically. (Other panels obviously suffer this effect as well). But, you can view a 40" TV from just about any angle and get the same result. (Different panel tech, plus way more pixel size).

The second issue is noise, and the S/N ratio tends to get better as the pixel size increases. The inverse is true, in that it requires better tech and construction, to get rid of the noise in smaller sensor units. Likely improvement in the firmware as well.

A present there is a market upsurge in "full frame DSLR" offerings. "Full frame" is considered to be having a sensor the same size as a 35mm negative, or 24 X 36mm. These are what have been considered "pro cameras" for years.

Ironically, "digital lenses" have been developed to compensate for the smaller sensors and light entry angle. ("Digital lenses", if designed properly, bend the output to the sensor back to straight, after the image production has been completed). Unfortunately, these lenses are designed for smaller sensors, and their, "coverage circle" falls far short of the 35mm frame size. Now, the pendulum will swing back towards to the older format 35mm coverage circle designs. I suppose the moral here is, I hope everybody held onto their old 35 mm lenses, you're liable to be needing them.

Pretty much spot on. The layman explanation I use is that for a given number of pixels, the larger the sensor the better light sensitivity each individual pixel has, as well as better sharpness and color rendition (assuming post processing and focus are equal). It's why my old D70 (let alone my D700) produces much higher quality images at a smaller resolution than someones 8,10,16 MP phone camera and in most cases, point and shoots in the same range. This is much more apparent when comparing different technology and design; the 5D Mark II is absolutely amazing in its 21MP goodness over my D700, but I also like my 8fps continuous release and slightly better focusing so when it comes to dSLRs, it's more about features and intent than image size.

For the sake of everyone using their phones for their snapshots, I sure hope Hansson is right; I'm tired of seeing blobs for photos on people's instagram, facebook profiles, what have you. For those of us already with pro-sumer to professional dSLR bodies, we're not affected so much.

misor misor said:

Choke. consoles really?

the last time I heard it, playstation, xbox, and wii are still popular.

(it's my prediction, like it or not. )

Burty117 Burty117, TechSpot Chancellor, said:

Choke. consoles really?

the last time I heard it, playstation, xbox, and wii are still popular.

(it's my prediction, like it or not. )

But not as popular as the PC

Archean Archean, TechSpot Paladin, said:

But not as popular as the PC

Correct, but I guess this is generally true for 'enthusiasts'.

1 person liked this | Pan Wah said:

I predict that the entire cast of Top Gear (UK) (including "redundant Stig" will be killed in a freak accident on the M40, involving a "Top Gear Challenge" featuring the first three self-driving cars to be licensed in the UK.

Burty117 Burty117, TechSpot Chancellor, said:

I predict that the entire cast of Top Gear (UK) (including "redundant Stig" will be killed in a freak accident on the M40, involving a "Top Gear Challenge" featuring the first three self-driving cars to be licensed in the UK.

I can see it being one of the funniest episodes they've ever done!

Guest said:

Nvidia will release new graphic tech for 4x the power of the 600 series.. I.e. Maxwell...

3-4 gigs of mem on the card be the norm on the high end.. Terga 4 will be out with LOTs of graphics cores for mobiles devices..

Guest said:

"I predict that the entire cast of Top Gear (UK) (including "redundant Stig") will be killed in a freak accident on the M40, involving a "Top Gear Challenge" featuring the first three self-driving cars to be licensed in the UK."

Now, that's what I called epic LoL :D Yep, no doubt, it'll be the funniest episode ever..

Guest said:

Julio, you are losing because your prediction is partially incorrect - Windows8 will be a flop just like Windows ME and Vista were, on all platforms. Yes, M$ will boast about the sales figures but those will merely be the pre-installed instances on new computers and the rare few upgrades (where people got suckered in by preview versions and low price). Nobody in their right mind will buy a boxed version of Win8 while Win7 is still available.

Archean Archean, TechSpot Paladin, said:

@Pan Wah & @Burty117

Self driving cars made by Google

Although this sort of situation would be far more likely to happen in Fifth Gear, considering their 'free' sort of format.

captaincranky captaincranky, TechSpot Addict, said:

Julio, you are losing because your prediction is partially incorrect - Windows8 will be a flop just like Windows ME and Vista were, on all platforms. Yes, M$ will boast about the sales figures but those will merely be the pre-installed instances on new computers and the rare few upgrades (where people got suckered in by preview versions and low price). Nobody in their right mind will buy a boxed version of Win8 while Win7 is still available.
Here, here! Now listen to my tale of woe and disgrace.

Last weekend I missed an opportunity to buy "Windows 7 Home Premium 64 bit", from Newegg @ $79.95.

I was unable to purchase it, since I needed a system drive for a computer which I've been collecting parts for, to build for myself today. (Dear Lord, I hope it boots. If not, won't that be a huge lump of coal in my stocking. The fact I doubt I'm on anyone's "nice list", let alone Santa's, just adds to the massive anxiety level).

Anyway, I bought a WD "Velociaptor" (600 GB) that New egg had on sale for $110.00. Luckily I do have a copy of Win 7 Pro (64) to use in the machine.

Accordingly, this sad state of affairs will leave me with no bragging rights with respect to boot times, and no TV "bandwagon propaganda" Windows 8 TV commercials to identify with. (And don't get me started moaning how I don't have a "Surface" tablet to rub iPad owner's noses in).

What's a poor aging pundit to do? THIS>>>>(captaincranky rollseyes, flips bird, and says," bah humbug to all, and don't try to ruin my night"

(You can try to imagine smileys for that last line, our current selection of emoticons can't adequately capture my sentiments) Meahwhile I'll try to imagine Santa with an 8 inch diameter section of chimney flue pipe stuck up his "backpack"..:eek:

Oh, and by the way, "Merry Christmas"!

In a feeble and meager attempt to keep this on topic, my technological prediction is this; "I won't adopt Windows 8 or SSDs anytime in the foreseeable future, let alone as soon as 2013"....:p

misor misor said:

But not as popular as the PC

yup, I completely agree with you.

my prediction is a long shot anyway... as if microsoft and sony would collaborate... :rollseyes

Guest said:

Predict that the gesture control interface will overtake the touch interface via the Leap Motion.

TorturedChaos, TechSpot Chancellor, said:

I don't know if I will see it EVER but I would love to see some short of major break through in battery technology that ACTUALLY works and makes it to the market at a reasonable price :P.

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