Perhaps recession was the wrong word, but consumer confidence feels relevant to me. I agree it's not about declines in jobs or GDP. It's about the higher prices everywhere you turn. I'm not an economist, but this is the theme I hear over and over in casual conversations and mainstream media.
I think it may be one of those things where the fear of a recession causes a recession when all is said and done.
The main issue with the economy is we're in a worker shortage; there's about 2 Million fewer people in the workforce then the pre-pandemic days. About half of those losses are boomers, the other half were largely the ones who died. This has lead to both shortages in production and increased worker wages, both of which will raise prices. Throw in food and oil shortages (both driven by the Ukraine situation, plus OPEC deciding its time to jack prices again) and you have the current state of affairs.
So the Fed is using about the only tool it has: Jack interest rates and drive down inflation. And as long as the labor market remains robust, there's really no reason for them to slow down. But the *fear* of a slowdown is causing the markets to get jittery, which reduces investment and may end up causing a recession as a result.
Regardless, the rising prices on basic goods/services are quite visible, and with CPUs chasing ever smaller performance gains, people question why they should upgrade now. Which in some way is reassuring; people instead could be upgrading now because of the expectation prices will be higher in the future, which becomes self-fulfilling.
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