DRAM prices soar as hyperscalers pay 50% more for only partial orders

[Shawn Knight]

The big picture: The AI boom is driving DRAM demand to record highs, and the market is struggling to keep up. According to a new report from DigiTimes, leading cloud service providers in the US and China have agreed to pay top dollar on orders that are only being partially filled.

In September, an anonymous source outlined Samsung's plans to raise DRAM and NAND flash prices in the fourth quarter of 2025. It is now late October, and the situation has seemingly played out much like the source said it would.

Per DigiTimes, some major hyperscalers agreed to fourth quarter contract price increases of up to 50 percent over what they'd been previously paying for DRAM – an increase of 30 percent more than most expected to be paying in Q4. Given the markup, you would expect prompt delivery but that apparently has not been the case.

According to the publication, buyers are only receiving around 70 percent of the server memory they ordered, and the situation could get worse before it gets better. Tom's Hardware notes that memory makers are preparing for out of stock situations by the end of the year. Should that come to fruition, the trickle-down effect could force some hyperscalers to slow their AI expansion efforts.

Keep in mind that this only applies to major cloud service providers with deep pockets. For smaller players and OEMs, the situation is even worse. Tom's notes that order fulfillment rates for lower-priority customers is closer to 35-40 percent. To meet demand, smaller players will likely end up having to pay even more or sit on the sidelines and wait until supply improves.

On the retail side, not much has changed as it relates to DDR5 versus DDR4. The older tech is being phased out, resulting in higher spot prices compared to the newer tech. A quick check of DRAM Exchange reveals a daily high of $28.00 for DDR4 16Gb (2Gx8) versus $20.00 for DDR5 16G (2Gx8).

Image credit: Charlie Belvin, Athena Sandrini

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DRAM prices soar as hyperscalers pay 50% more for only partial orders

 

[yRaz]

I can't wait until the AI boom goes bust and this stuff floods the market for pennies on the dollar. I'll be able to replace every server in my rack with parts from hyperscalers that are going through liquidation. I can't wait, it'll be like owning a part of history.

 

[Kirby1]

I can't wait until the AI boom goes bust and this stuff floods the market for pennies on the dollar. I'll be able to replace every server in my rack with parts from hyperscalers that are going through liquidation. I can't wait, it'll be like owning a part of history.

If there is a burst, it will be all the small companies trying to do niche things with AI that will go down, not the AI market as a whole. Unless AI were to turn out to by all hype and little of what people think it is capable when paired with reasonably functional humanoid robots or things still yet to come simply never come, AI will persist as a major factor in the market and probably still the largest factor, it will just be among fewer and bigger companies as the little guy gets squeezed out.

The dot-com bubble didn't kill of the market for the internet, it just killed off all the small market players while the ones who survived got huge.

 

[yRaz]

If there is a burst, it will be all the small companies trying to do niche things with AI that will go down, not the AI market as a whole. Unless AI were to turn out to by all hype and little of what people think it is capable when paired with reasonably functional humanoid robots or things still yet to come simply never come, AI will persist as a major factor in the market and probably still the largest factor, it will just be among fewer and bigger companies as the little guy gets squeezed out.

The dot-com bubble didn't kill of the market for the internet, it just killed off all the small market players while the ones who survived got huge.

There are similarities, but the dotcom revolution was different in a number of ways. The thing is that there is too much money flowing around and all these companies are massively over leveraged. The data center scale AI is actually the worst of all of them, it'll likely be the small guys that survived because they didn't spend $100billion on GPUs. Most of the AI that I play around with and find interesting on GitHub is stuff that could be made on 4, 5090s in a thread ripper machines for ~$25,000. Heck, so much of this is memory dependant that you see some really interesting things happening with the APU in Strix halo. The GPU in them is about as powerful as 4060 but can be configured to have up to 128GB of LPDRR5x 9000 as VRAM for $2k.

I see AI as something that can be like a personal assistant and can carry out various tasks for you. I don't think AI will necessarily replace jobs, but I think everyone having a personal assistant micramaging their life for them will make the world more productive. Once you have the model developed, actually running it isn't that difficult. In the same way we have appliances, I see local AI running on your home similar to having an AC unit installed or a hot water tank. You can integrate it into the cost of the home for a few thousand dollars or make your own.

I don't see this AI dystopian future taking everyone's jobs that everyone keeps talking about. I do see hyperscale level AI data centers becoming more niche in the future. There will be a handful of good models out there, think of it like car shopping. You pick one out you like and then can tune it to whatever you want it to do for you. You can already do that now in a very hackish way, but it's fun to do as a techie.

The thing is that so much of the AI out there right now that's available to use is already open source and free. Now that it's out there you are going to have a very difficult time taking it out of the open source communities hands. sure, you'll have closed source AIs, but there will be a Linux or AI models pop up.

Anyway, tangent over. I can't wait to buy me some used server hardware in the great Private Equity Liquidation of AI

 

[godrilla]

Crazy how 3 years ago Microcenter was giving away free 32 gig gskill ddr5 6 ghz cl30 kits with 7700x now that same kit is around $200 if not more.

 

[Billybobjoey]

I just picked up a crucial 32gb kit of DDR5 6000MTs CL36 for ~$145 since it had jumped up to ~$180 the day before at other retailers. It's absolutely ridiculous. Figured I might as well get it before it jumps up again.

 

[godrilla]

Black Friday deal at Lenovo with 64 gigs of ram , a 5090 and a 285k for $3399. Coupon: T7POWER50
FYI

https://www.lenovo.com/us/en/p/desktops/legion-desktops/legion-t-series-towers/legion-tower-7i-gen-10/90y80000us?orgRef=android-app%253A%252F%252Fcom.google.android.gm%252F&clickid=yGBSm6TENxycWJ-VyrXTLWvZUkpUJaSx33uQQA0&irgwc=1&afsrc=1&PID=1442478&acid=ww%3Aaffiliate%3Abv0as6&cid=us%3Aaffiliate%3Acxsaam

Also Corsair 32 gig ddr5 6 ghz rgb kit cl 36 still available at $122 @ Amazon.

https://a.co/d/0kQfibF

 

[Billybobjoey]

Also Corsair 32 gig ddr5 6 ghz rgb kit cl 36 still available at $122 @ Amazon.

https://a.co/d/0kQfibF

Dang, I would have cancelled my crucial order and saved a little money but it's already out of stock not even 6 hours later. Thanks anyways!

 

[godrilla]

Dang, I would have cancelled my crucial order and saved a little money but it's already out of stock not even 6 hours later. Thanks anyways!

my pleasure.

https://a.co/d/14n8Pk4 Kingston cl 30 at 135$
Check Pcpartpicker it still has low hanging fruit.