That was a good read, the 2 of you made some good points
Thanks- we aim to please.
You'll note that sometimes the signal to noise ratio tends to take a dive in graphics "discussions", so I'm not entirely sure how much benefit is derived.
An example: Our Guests original premise...
3) Performance increase on average of 50-100% vs. previous high-end. GK104 is unlikely to beat GTX580 by an average of 50%
...but by his own argument...
That makes no sense. GTX285 is a refresh of GTX280. Therefore, on a generational timeline it's only fair to compare GTX480 vs. GTX280
...he should be comparing the GTX 680 with the GTX 480 - since the GTX 580 is a....
refresh.
I'm not convinced in any case that average frames-per-second is the only metric that "performance" should be judged by. The overriding factors (for gaming cards) should be game playability (single and multi GPU), driver optimization, and for some people, thermal, acoustic, and power usage characteristics (some might argue performance/$, performance/watt...depends on which metric favours their preferred brand at the time if the forums are to be believed)
I am willing to bet those early days 2000-2005 are going to make a comback with the new consoles
& card refreshes being every 6 months.
If/when there are refreshes at that rate then the new card series would likely amount to some new box art and some higher numbered digits. The present cycle I think is still likely to be linked to a yearly cycle - at least for a while. Both AMD and Nvidia need to recoup their investment on each series- and neither seem predisposed to accelerate their timelines. TSMC (the foundry for both AMD and Nvidia GPU's) looks to continue 28nm for complex chips through to early 2014 (with production moving from 300mm wafers to 450mm) which means that transistor densities -and the constraints that brings, will limit any significant gains.
As the majority of computer users buy pre-builts from OEM's and neither know, nor care about anything other than "
does it work" and "
bigger number means better, right?", I'm sure we'll see the usual slightly tweaked -or outright renamed- cards on a fairly regular basis, but architectual changes should hold steady (
AMD's next series isn't slated to enter production this year for example)