Nvidia could slash GeForce RTX 50 production by up to 40% next year

[Daniel Sims]

Rumor mill: Analysts and other sources anticipate that memory shortages stemming from the AI boom could disrupt supplies of numerous hardware products beginning next year. AMD is expected to introduce modest GPU price hikes, while Nvidia may significantly reduce production of certain graphics card models.

According to unconfirmed reports from Board Channels, Nvidia is considering cutting production of RTX 50 series GPUs by 30 to 40% during the first half of 2026. The decision is likely driven by memory shortages, which could make some cards nearly as difficult to find as they were at launch.

Another outlet, Benchlife, partially corroborated this information. Although it did not specify the scale of the adjustments, its sources claim the cuts would target the RTX 5070 Ti and 5060 Ti. It's also worth noting that both rumors originate from Asian sources, which may not necessarily reflect global market conditions and could be limited primarily to mainland China.

If accurate, these reports would align with earlier rumors that AMD and Nvidia might discontinue some budget and mid-range graphics cards due to VRAM shortages. Memory accounts for a large portion of the bill of materials for lower-priced GPUs, and both the RTX 5070 Ti and 5060 Ti are 16GB cards.

Nvidia's decision to use cutting-edge GDDR7 memory for the RTX 50 series contributed to supply constraints and inflated prices at launch in early 2025. Although the GPUs are currently available at relatively low prices, availability is expected to worsen next year – making this holiday season a good time to upgrade.

Driven by AI demand, planned data centers have absorbed most of the backlogged DRAM and NAND from manufacturers such as Samsung and SK Hynix, with shortages projected to last through 2027 or 2028. As a result, upcoming smartphones and laptops may ship with less RAM than previous models, the Nintendo Switch 2 could see a price increase, and Micron/Crucial has exited the consumer RAM business after three decades.

In the graphics card market, AMD is expected to pass higher memory costs on to consumers, possibly beginning in January. Additionally, Nvidia may delay or even cancel the RTX 50 Super series, which was expected to launch in 2026 with 18GB of VRAM for the RTX 5070 and 24GB for the 5070 Ti and 5080.

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Nvidia could slash GeForce RTX 50 production by up to 40% next year

 

[BbN48]

Things aren't looking good for those waiting for the higher vram Super gpus.

 

[Rapob]

Yes they will, because RTX 6000 launches in Q4 to compete proper against RDNA 5 / UDNA on 2-3nm TSMC.

5000 never really needed a SUPER refresh. 5000 was already a 4000 SUPER-SUPER refresh. 4000 to 5000 is the worst generationel jump ever. Same node as well. 4080 to 5080 is laughable. Even 4070 Ti/Ti SUPER is very close to 5070 Ti. Only somewhat decent jump is 5090 but its extremely expensive and powerhungry.

Nvidia should have launched 5000 series with those rumoured +50% VRAM we saw with the 5000 SUPER rumours but they did not. Now I am sure we won't see 5000 SUPER at all. Makes little sense to release them now.

Would make far more sense to just release even more expensive 6000 series with those 50% more VRAM. Hopefully a true next gen release, unlike 5000 series (and Radeon 9000 series for that matter), meaning 2-3nm TSMC.

6060 12GB
6070 16GB
6070 Ti 20-24GB
6080 24GB
6090 32GB

Nvidia don't care 6000 series won't sell like hotcakes. As they will continue seilling 5000 series. They should just offer a true generational leap with plenty of VRAM instead and people who cares, will splash regardless of price, which will go down eventually anyway. Overlapping is the way to go in this day and age.

Nvidia did that for generations now.

2000 series sold after 3000 series came out.
3000 sold after 4000 came out.
4000 sold after 5000 came out.
5000 will sell after 6000 comes out.

Mixing different nodes/processes means higher output. Also, no need to rush out entry level GPUs because last gen GPUs will fill that spot.

 

[yRaz]

Gonna work out real well for them when AI sales crash. All the money pouring into AI right now? Just about everyone sees it as cheaper to develop their own chips than it is to do business with nVidia. NV has CUDA, a very useful system but nothing that throwing money at the problem can't solve. Now that everyone has shown they're willing to throw limitless amounts of cash at the problem then CUDA starts looking a whole lot less valuable

 

[Rapob]

Gonna work out real well for them when AI sales crash. All the money pouring into AI right now? Just about everyone sees it as cheaper to develop their own chips than it is to do business with nVidia. NV has CUDA, a very useful system but nothing that throwing money at the problem can't solve. Now that everyone has shown they're willing to throw limitless amounts of cash at the problem then CUDA starts looking a whole lot less valuable

Nvidias entire backend solution is the reason they are sought after. Not CUDA alone.
AMD can deliver the AI hardware, yet can't deliver a full working package.

It all depends what the companies buying the hardware is going to use.
If there was a good and solid alternative to Nvidia, stock would reflect it instantly.

AI sales are not crashing anytime soon, I think AI sales peak right now actually. AI hardware sales will go slowly down starting from next year. Especially with RAM prices exploding.

AI bubble won't really burst. I think it will go slow and steady the opposite way again. Sales won't stop from day to day. Demand will just lessen over time, meaning stock will slowly drop. Nvidia stock already dropped 5% in a few days. It will probably go up again. Stock has been up and down for months now. The days of rapid increases are already over. I sold out of my AI stocks in Q1-Q2 this year. I think ship has sailed.

I absolutely don't believe Nvidia will hit 7-8 trillion market cap in a few years, like some people still hyping AI says. Tons of big banks, holdings and big investors already sold their Nvidia stocks or a big bunch of them. Steadily but surely seeking other markets. Tech stocks are almost like crypto right now. Too risky. Yes you can still make money, but you might as easily loose money.

 

[scoffer]

The circle-jerk financing will explode eventually. Oracle will be the first casualty in my humble opinion. Even those 'modern-day players' at Blackrock will tire of the whole game eventually.

 

[PierreJG]

Well, I don't really follow rumors. Dropping prices by 30-40% is highly unlikely or scrapping the mid tier cards will also not make sense. Would you prefer selling 1 high tier card or 10 mid tier cards? 75% gamers can't afford or want to spend the money for a high tier card. Price to performance the xx90 series never made sense. Here the xx80 is almost twice as cheap than the xx90 series.

Don't get me wrong, I am not anti xx90 series as there is a market for them but it is small compared to mid cards. AMD and Nvidia prices did drop here quite a lot, specially Nvidia Cards are well priced at the moment. Will see how memory shortage change that as our retailers already overprice GPUs

 

[BogdanR]

What happens currently in the industry is mind boggling, let’s take CoreWeave, a former crypto company turned AI whose IPO was a cool 22 billion but produces currently 0.

Simply said Nvidia is CoreWeave’s supplier of chips and one of its major investors, meaning CoreWeave is using Nvidia’s money to buy Nvidia’s chips and then renting them right back to Nvidia. OpenAI is also a major CoreWeave investor and has close financial partnerships with both Nvidia and Microsoft.

This circular firing squad arrangement is currently common in the industry and has a strong 2008 whiff about it.

 

[yRaz]

What happens currently in the industry is mind boggling, let’s take CoreWeave, a former crypto company turned AI whose IPO was a cool 22 billion but produces currently 0.

Simply said Nvidia is CoreWeave’s supplier of chips and one of its major investors, meaning CoreWeave is using Nvidia’s money to buy Nvidia’s chips and then renting them right back to Nvidia. OpenAI is also a major CoreWeave investor and has close financial partnerships with both Nvidia and Microsoft.

This circular firing squad arrangement is currently common in the industry and has a strong 2008 whiff about it.

Chasing short term profits worked out real well for the auto industry. They only sold high margin vehicles and raised prices, now there lots are full. Even Ferrari is having issues and you used to have to be on a wait list for years. These AI GPUs won't be able to be repurposed and they're essentially worthless the moment their sold. Noone has found a way to make money with the yet

 

[antiproduct]

I guess Nvidia is tired of seeing their cards come down to MSRP prices.

 

[BogdanR]

Ferrari and Patek Philipe are one thing, the SVPs financed AI “revolution” is another thing altogether.
You are right nonetheless. At least Ferrari produced something you can, in a (rather large) pinch, use as a winter beater commute vehicle.