Nvidia predicts graphics card supply issues will last "the vast majority" of 2022

[midian182]

Facepalm: Everyone from industry analysts to manufacturers has an opinion on when the global chip shortage will ease, with predictions ranging from the optimistic—sometime this year—to the depressing—2023. In its latest earnings call, Nvidia revealed its view, and it’s not good.

Speaking on the call, Jensen Huang explained that card shortages are expected to continue throughout most of 2022. “I would expect that we will see a supply constrained environment for the vast majority of next year is my guess at the moment,” said the Nvidia CEO. “A lot of that has to do with the demand being so great,” he added.

The previous quarter saw Nvidia’s revenue reach an all-time high of $6.5 billion, around half of which came from the gaming segment. The company revealed that 80% of the new Ampere products it shipped were Low Hash Rate (LHR) versions, suggesting gamers, not miners, snapped up most of the cards—though a recent hack can restore 70% of LHR cards’ unlocked hash rates. Additionally, the Crypto Mining Processor (CMP) line’s $266 million in sales fell short of Nvidia’s $400 million prediction.

Huang notes that millions of PC gamers are still itching to upgrade to one of the RTX 3000 series. “Ampere is off to an incredible start. It’s the best-selling GPU architecture in the history of our company,” Huang said. “And yet, we’ve only upgraded less than 20 percent of our total install base. So there’s another 80 percent of the world’s PC gaming market that we have yet to upgrade to RTX.”

Expect to see this sort of thing for a while

In addition to chip shortages, tariffs, high demand, and other manufacturing disruptions, scalpers and their bots remain a problem for those looking to upgrade. Retailers are taking steps to curtail the practice, but those looking to make a quick buck often find a way to circumvent these measures.

At the start of the year, analysts said the chip shortage would endure into 2022. Flex, the world’s third-biggest electronics contract manufacturer, said 2023 was a more realistic timeframe. More recently, we heard that chip delivery times had reached record levels of 20 weeks. It’s not all bad news if you're looking to buy a car, though; TSMC expects the auto industry chip shortage to subside in the coming months.

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https://www.techspot.com/news/90860-nvidia-predicts-gpu-supply-issues-last-vast-majority.html

 

[Dimitriid]

At this point it's just kind of sad that companies like Nvidia and AMD based their entire model on a handful of price fixing companies that are now screwing them out of generating healthier profits just so they can control the price of fabricating chips more closely.

The issue is that at this point this is already going to hurt the AAA gaming industry and secondary markets like the "Gamer/RGB" crap companies actually make decent margins on.

If you're seriously telling people they need to
1) Pay scalper prices or
2) Wait until 2023 for decent prices

To enable playing the latest and greatest games guess what? Sales for those will plummet. This could end up creating another videogame crash but this time just because people lose confidence in this companies if the best they can do is tell people "Pay inflated prices" or "Wait 2 years at least"

 

[NicktheWVAHick]

No surprises here. It’s just like every other industry. Our country’s dependency on foreign production of goods & services is now coming home to roost and we will pay a hefty price for it. Need a new car? Too bad. Your HVAC broken? Good luck. Dryer, freezer, washer, microwave on the fritz? Get out the washboard and go down to the riverbank. We are all screwed…..welcome to hell.

 

[VaRmeNsI]

When China invades Taiwan I'd push that date back to 2050 at least.

 

[Puiu]

TL;DR don't expect price cuts anytime soon

 

[0dium]

"Ampere is off to an incredible start. It’s the best-selling GPU architecture in the history of our company,” Huang said. “And yet, we’ve only upgraded less than 20 percent of our total install base."

In other words, most cards go to miners not gamers like they suggest. Also, CMP sales fell short because of their low resale value. Who would need those cards if crypto crash happens? I also wonder how their revenue would be impacted if market gets flooded with cheap second hand cards in case of complete crypto crash.

 

[Achaios]

Even worse, I read today at Videocartz.com that Nvidia 4K cards will be produced by TSMC and so will AMD's next gen cards *as well as* Intel's new discreet Arc GPUs.

We are gonna be in a situation where TSMC manufactures all discreet GPU chips in the world.

I think that this ridiculous situation with GPU shortages and pricing is very likely to last until 2032, not just "through 2022".

Meanwhile, the so-called "proof of stake" for ETH has been postponed once again just like it had in the past 5 years or so and nobody knows when or if it's going to be implemented.

Leatherman Jensen must be very happy.

 

[VitalyT]

Low blow from nVidia, who is contributing to the shortage.

 

[NightAntilli]

Even worse, I read today at Videocartz.com that Nvidia 4K cards will be produced by TSMC and so will AMD's next gen cards *as well as* Intel's new discreet Arc GPUs.

We are gonna be in a situation where TSMC manufactures all discreet GPU chips in the world.

I think that this ridiculous situation with GPU shortages and pricing is very likely to last until 2032, not just "through 2022".

2032? If you mean 2023, sure, maybe. But 2032?

Meanwhile, the so-called "proof of stake" for ETH has been postponed once again just like it had in the past 5 years or so and nobody knows when or if it's going to be implemented.

Even when it's implemented, mining will be slowly phased out, meaning it won't immediately stopped. The miners will still want to have profits and make use of their hardware though, so, they likely will simply switch to another crypto, possibly Ethereum Classic or Ravencoin.

Leatherman Jensen must be very happy.

He has been happy for a very long time, considering how gullible gamers are.

 

[Shadowboxer]

I find it amusing that people think prices will come down again. When this chip shortage is all over flagship GPUs will still cost over $1000. The best we will get is a less rubbish $200 option and that doesn’t interest me much. I’m prepared to just go and spend a lot of money when the day comes to upgrade my GPU. PC gaming has never exactly been cheap anyway. I own one console and that hardware cost less than just my SSD on its own..

 

[TheBigFatClown]

No surprises here. It’s just like every other industry. Our country’s dependency on foreign production of goods & services is now coming home to roost and we will pay a hefty price for it. Need a new car? Too bad. Your HVAC broken? Good luck. Dryer, freezer, washer, microwave on the fritz? Get out the washboard and go down to the riverbank. We are all screwed…..welcome to hell.

It's funny, especially your comments about the washer. Sometimes I wonder if the appliances we use actually make our lives better. Or do we just think they do. The amount of money spent every year on buying and repairing home appliances is huge I would guess. The washer I use right now has a 15 and 30 minute pre-soak button that I use a lot. But it would be just as easy to fill up a 20 gallon barrel with water and then add soap and clothing to do the same thing. The sun could dry the clothes in the summer. I rarely use microwaves to cook food. The only appliance I might miss is a refrigerator/freezer.

So nice of NVidia to go around making "predictions" since they are the ones making the money off of these overpriced toys.

I got a 1660ti in my laptop. That's good enough for years for my needs. So NVidia can burn for all I care. Figuratively speaking of course. Gotta be politically correct these days.

 

[DDG4005]

Are these people serious? So much for my hopes of getting new graphics iron for my PCs next year.

 

[Kosmoz]

And that's why I bought my XFX Merc RX 6700 XT for 660 euro with shipping included and it was the best deal I could get 2 weeks ago, or in the foreseeable future. I would have not payed more than that, though.

Anyone waiting for huge GPU availability with prices at MSRP or close to it, cryto dying, world instability being over and other fairy tales, they can wait for years...

We as conscious spending gamers are screwed forever at this point and I don't think Intel Arc will come to the rescue either.

If there was only one factor for this negative situation, it would have been easy to be corrected, but there are multiple ones and thus too many variables and uncertainty to actually be able to predict a positive outcome and when that will come, if ever.

 

[R00sT3R]

I lucked out on 6th August when Nvidia dropped some FE cards here in the UK and I managed to snag a 3080, the true Unicorn of GPU's, for the MSRP of £650.

 

[McMurdeR]

I lucked out on 6th August when Nvidia dropped some FE cards here in the UK and I managed to snag a 3080, the true Unicorn of GPU's, for the MSRP of £650.

Nice work. Scan is the retail partner - unfortunately they can't deliver to IRL due to Brexit. Otherwise I would have snagged one a couple of times.

 

[Cycloid Torus]

My Steam library says I can play new (to me) games with my existing GPU for the next 3 years without buying anything. Hmmmm, sounds like a plan.

 

[BadThad]

Man, this is bad! I keep feeling it will get worse before it gets better. For me the only good thing is it makes me feel better for dropping a mere $800 on an RX6800 many months ago. I plan on using it as long as possible!

Thanks for the article!

 

[Mr Majestyk]

Gee you mean they are now telling us exactly what the experts have been saying all along. It will be 2023 at the earliest before there's any respite. Oh well just means I pocket a lot of money as I won't be updating for a lot longer. First world problems anyway. Boohoo.

 

[Norsiiii]

Low blow from nVidia, who is contributing to the shortage.

How exactly are they contributing to the shortage? By making a great product that everyone wants and therefore causing higher market demand? Well...sure, I guess that's technically correct, but cannot possibly be considered a valid criticism - "How dare you make a great product that everyone wants! You must make your product worse, because the world's manufacturing capabilities can't make enough of your thing to sell it to everyone who wants to buy it!" Yeah, doesn't really work.

Or did you have something else in mind? Is it somehow Nvidia's fault that chip manufacturer's raw material costs have skyrocketed too? Or is it also Nvidia's fault that all the car manufacturers thought they could just cancel 12 months worth of orders before realizing they screwed up 6 months later and all tried to throw their orders back in at once after that production capacity had already been reassigned to other customers?

 

[VitalyT]

How exactly are they contributing to the shortage?

By spreading rumors that shortage will last, for one thing, instead of increasing production capacity.

 

[godrilla]

The backlog is 9 to 10 months long now my friend has yet to get a notification from EVGA which says he is still in que.
Currently the best chance of getting a gpu at MSRP is a prebuilt system like alienware especially if you can get it on sale and discounts. Consoles are experiencing similar shortages as well which as being scalped for higher than some medium level gaming pcs with rtx 3060s.

 

[Norsiiii]

By spreading rumors that shortage will last, for one thing, instead of increasing production capacity.

How does spreading rumors make any tangible difference to the balance of supply vs demand? Does spreading rumors cause demand to increase? No. Does spreading rumors cause supply to decrease? Nope. So what are you on about?

"instead of increasing production capacity"
You are of course aware that Nvidia has a production capacity of precisely zero chips per year, right? They do not produce any silicon, period. Never have, never will. How are you apparently not aware of this??

All of the fabs who actually make the world's silicon have been pegged at 100% capacity for the last 12 months, and they are all trying to scale up their production as fast as possible, however, building new chip fabs is a process that takes a decade and costs into the 11 figures (yes, tens of BILLIONS to build a whole new chip fab)

How you can possibly figure that it's Nvidias fault is absolutely bewildering

 

[silversea]

You just need to look at Nvidia's profits and you can see who is really getting screwed here! it's a no brainer we are getting the short end of the stick by paying ridiculously high prices for GPU's, CPU's, and other related items, the big tech companies have us coming and going like a revolving door it just keeps going round-n-round unit they decide when to stop, that is whey I have not made my move to upgrade yet, I refuse to become a victim of what I call high tech strong-arming.

 

[Satish Mallya]

These might just be the market that Intel needs to establish itself as a player - they already have something in the works.


That said, Intel hasn't exactly been much good at graphics historically..