Russia's invasion of Ukraine puts a damper on dream of cheaper electric cars

[nanoguy]

Why it matters: The most optimistic forecasts from the auto industry suggest EVs will reach price parity with cars powered by internal combustion engines sometime in the next three years. However, surging prices for raw materials are dampening those expectations, especially in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The electrification of the auto industry may be facing more challenges than expected in the near future. Automakers have already had to deal with a shortage of chips as well as increased prices for various materials, and now the dream of more affordable electric cars is starting to fade even more.

According to an analysis done by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence on the state of the supply chain, prices for materials like nickel, lithium, and other essential materials for making electric vehicles have surged in recent years and is already having an impact on the adoption rate. This means that it will take longer than expected for companies to achieve cost parity between electric vehicles and the internal combustion engine offerings that currently dominate the overall market.

Image source: Deloitte

While lithium-ion battery cost has fallen dramatically over the last three decades, this year could see a reversal of that trend. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only worsened the rising material costs of making electronics and batteries, as many in the industry fear a disruption in the supply of materials like platinum, palladium, nickel, copper, and aluminum coming from the two countries. Chinese suppliers are looking at this as a major opportunity as prices in the region have remained relatively stable, but the local auto industry may soon grapple with the same price inflation for EVs.

The average selling price for EVs in the US was around $63,000, or 35 percent higher than the overall industry average. Last year, Tesla increased the pricing of its base model cars even as it recorded a healthy profit. The much-needed network of EV charging stations may have been expanding in various regions, but several studies performed by market research firms seem to indicate consumers aren’t willing to pay more upfront for an EV despite lower maintenance and operating costs.

Permalink to story.

https://www.techspot.com/news/93671-russia-invasion-ukraine-puts-damper-dream-cheaper-electric.html

 

[Squid Surprise]

"The much-needed network of EV charging stations may have been expanding in various regions, but several studies performed by market research firms seem to indicate consumers aren’t willing to pay more upfront for an EV despite lower maintenance and operating costs."

The main reason I wouldn't buy one is I would still need another car for any "road trips"... as there are simply not enough charging stations - nor is it feasible to wait hours at a station to "fill up".

When it takes the same amount of time to fully charge my car from "empty" as it does to fill up a gas tank - and charging stations are as plentiful as gas stations.... then we are talking

 

[m4a4]

The much-needed network of EV charging stations may have been expanding in various regions, but several studies performed by market research firms seem to indicate consumers aren’t willing to pay more upfront for an EV despite lower maintenance and operating costs.

I mean, until battery tech gets much better, EV's currently have the biggest long term maintenance cost (replace old/dying batteries).
ICE vehicles do need a lot of smaller short term maintenance, and (if you don't take care of it) maybe a long term "fix/replace ICE", but that long term is usually nowhere near the price of a new battery pack. And at the least, you can go used (I don't think there's a cheaper option for EV's right now).

 

[wiyosaya]

I mean, until battery tech gets much better, EV's currently have the biggest long term maintenance cost (replace old/dying batteries).
ICE vehicles do need a lot of smaller short term maintenance, and (if you don't take care of it) maybe a long term "fix/replace ICE", but that long term is usually nowhere near the price of a new battery pack. And at the least, you can go used (I don't think there's a cheaper option for EV's right now).

While technically not an EV, per se, If I have my 06 Prius long enough to need a new traction battery (people have had them go far in excess of 200K miles), I'll do it myself. It is not that hard to do, and I have enough knowledge where it would not be that difficult for me to do myself.

EDIT: I think people really do not understand just how long traction batteries last. Not to mention, battery technology is constantly improving.

 

[p51d007]

Here's another issue that most don't take into consideration. MOST of Europe would easily fit into the land area of the USA. South Korea, Japan would fit within pretty much California.
You get off a boat from England to France, hop in a car and you can pretty much drive to Poland in one day.
Heck, if you drive from Arizona to Lousaina through Texas, it can take a couple of days.
In other words, EV's for a lot of Americans, just won't work because this nation is SPREAD OUT.
You would need two vehicles. An EV for around town, and ICE for long trips. Not to mention the extended time it takes to charge. Oh, lets don't forget the power grid either. Unless we "nuke up" and build a few, wind/solar is just not going to work in replacing coal plants. When there is a demand, a coal & nuclear plant can generate more power when needed. Not so much with wind/solar.

 

[koblongata]

I mean, until battery tech gets much better, EV's currently have the biggest long term maintenance cost (replace old/dying batteries).
ICE vehicles do need a lot of smaller short term maintenance, and (if you don't take care of it) maybe a long term "fix/replace ICE", but that long term is usually nowhere near the price of a new battery pack. And at the least, you can go used (I don't think there's a cheaper option for EV's right now).

No, before the Tesla dies, it already saved you enough money to buy a whole new Tesla...

 

[wiyosaya]

Here's another issue that most don't take into consideration. MOST of Europe would easily fit into the land area of the USA. South Korea, Japan would fit within pretty much California.
You get off a boat from England to France, hop in a car and you can pretty much drive to Poland in one day.
Heck, if you drive from Arizona to Lousaina through Texas, it can take a couple of days.
In other words, EV's for a lot of Americans, just won't work because this nation is SPREAD OUT.
You would need two vehicles. An EV for around town, and ICE for long trips.

I don't disagree with this, although, a PHEV would certainly serve the same purpose as having a dedicated ICE.

Oh, lets don't forget the power grid either. Unless we "nuke up" and build a few, wind/solar is just not going to work in replacing coal plants. When there is a demand, a coal & nuclear plant can generate more power when needed. Not so much with wind/solar.

Back in 2007 already, a study by a leading US National laboratory stated

For the United States as a whole, 84% of U.S. cars, pickup trucks
and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) could be suppor ted by the existing infrastr ucture, although the local percentages vary by region.

IMO, many people remain unaware of this and continue to state things such as what you stated above - even though that, according to study, is not needed.
If you want to read the whole report it is publicly available here - https://energyenvironment.pnnl.gov/ei/pdf/PHEV_Feasibility_Analysis_Part1.pdf

 

[yRaz]

While technically not an EV, per se, If I have my 06 Prius long enough to need a new traction battery (people have had them go far in excess of 200K miles), I'll do it myself. It is not that hard to do, and I have enough knowledge where it would not be that difficult for me to do myself.

EDIT: I think people really do not understand just how long traction batteries last. Not to mention, battery technology is constantly improving.

I helped my friend swap out the batteries in his Prius, it wasn't hard it just took awhile. WEAR GLOVES, 350 VOLTS OF DC DOES NOT FEEL GOOD!!!! I still have a scar on my thumb where it burned my fingernail off.

I mean, until battery tech gets much better, EV's currently have the biggest long term maintenance cost (replace old/dying batteries).
ICE vehicles do need a lot of smaller short term maintenance, and (if you don't take care of it) maybe a long term "fix/replace ICE", but that long term is usually nowhere near the price of a new battery pack. And at the least, you can go used (I don't think there's a cheaper option for EV's right now).

I'm a big fan of plug in hybrids. My roommate has a RAV4 Prime and he never uses gas when driving around town but he travels a lot for work. Only time he uses gas is when he travels out of town.

I can see how full electric cars can make sense for a lot of people but you have to look what I'm going to call "road trip" culture in the US. I love traveling and am VERY aware of the price of gas but so much of what I do from hobbies and recreation to work, I can't make a full electric car work. Thursday last week I had to drive 154 miles each way in a single day for work and it was in a fairly remote area.

I'm going to put this in cost per mile instead of $/gallon(apologies for not using science units). If gas goes to $5 a gallon but I can keep my same cost per mile as when it was $2.50 then I'll be happy.

EVs are great but they will likely never be capable of what many people require out of a vehicle. Unless you can fit a 1000 mile range into a battery I don't ever see heavy industry going full electric. Also, in these remote locations, how do they expect earth movers and excavation equipment to work? We have fuel delivered to remote areas. What are we going to do, charge up dumptrucks with diesel powered generators? And often times the equipment is running 24/7 for weeks because of deadlines. Are we going to have to double the amount of equipment we have so we can swap them out and charge them 12 hour intervals?

 

[Sausagemeat]

Sorry the article doesn’t explain how the Russia Ukraine conflict is making the supply chains worse. If it’s the sanctions then shouldn’t those sanctions be removed?

To me this sounds like an excuse. We know governments won’t meet their adoption targets for EV’s so let’s blame the Russians?

 

[wiyosaya]

I helped my friend swap out the batteries in his Prius, it wasn't hard it just took awhile. WEAR GLOVES, 350 VOLTS OF DC DOES NOT FEEL GOOD!!!! I still have a scar on my thumb where it burned my fingernail off.

Thanks for the heads up. I doubt I'll have it that long. I'm planning on replacing it with a Prius Prime at some point in the not too distant future - well before the traction battery needs replacing.

I'm a big fan of plug in hybrids. My roommate has a RAV4 Prime and he never uses gas when driving around town but he travels a lot for work. Only time he uses gas is when he travels out of town.

A neighbor of mine has a Prius Prime. She apparently drove it something like 2K miles without visiting a gas station. I drive about 12mi/day. For the most part, I envision myself not visiting gas stations for a very long time - once I get it.

Even with my current Prius, in the summer, I visit a gas station about once every six weeks.

I can see how full electric cars can make sense for a lot of people but you have to look what I'm going to call "road trip" culture in the US. I love traveling and am VERY aware of the price of gas but so much of what I do from hobbies and recreation to work, I can't make a full electric car work. Thursday last week I had to drive 154 miles each way in a single day for work and it was in a fairly remote area.

I'm going to put this in cost per mile instead of $/gallon(apologies for not using science units). If gas goes to $5 a gallon but I can keep my same cost per mile as when it was $2.50 then I'll be happy.

I estimated that my Prius paid for itself long ago - especially when the price of gas was about what it is today.

EVs are great but they will likely never be capable of what many people require out of a vehicle. Unless you can fit a 1000 mile range into a battery I don't ever see heavy industry going full electric. Also, in these remote locations, how do they expect earth movers and excavation equipment to work? We have fuel delivered to remote areas. What are we going to do, charge up dumptrucks with diesel powered generators? And often times the equipment is running 24/7 for weeks because of deadlines. Are we going to have to double the amount of equipment we have so we can swap them out and charge them 12 hour intervals?

Never is a very long time, and with advancements like these https://techxplore.com/news/2022-01-cycle-lithium-sulfur-battery-quintuple-electric.html

Australian researchers announce lithium-sulfur battery breakthrough

Researchers from Australia’s Monash University have created a new generation of lithium-sulfur batteries to provide a cheaper, cleaner and faster-charging energy storage solution that outlasts lithium-ion alternatives and is rechargeable hundreds of times without failing.

www.pv-magazine.com

Exceptional lithium diffusion through porous aromatic framework (PAF) interlayers delivers high capacity and long-life lithium–sulfur batteries

Lithium–Sulfur (Li–S) batteries offer potential for significant energy density storage gains in concert with the use of sustainable electrode materials. Their cycling stability and slow charging kinetics need significant improvement for deployment in practical settings. Consequently, facilitated...

pubs.rsc.org

Things are moving faster than many people think.

Unfortunately, I am unable to put my hands on the link ATM, but I read that these Li-S battery developments are very easily adaptable to current manufacturing methods.

Maybe I am an optimist, but I think there is so much research going on that someone will overcome the problems in the not-so-distant future.

 

[wiyosaya]

Sorry the article doesn’t explain how the Russia Ukraine conflict is making the supply chains worse. If it’s the sanctions then shouldn’t those sanctions be removed?

To me this sounds like an excuse. We know governments won’t meet their adoption targets for EV’s so let’s blame the Russians?

If that contributes to Russia taking over who knows what next. I don't think so. Humanity will figure out a way around the problem. Typically, when under pressure, humans find a way.

 

[Plutoisaplanet]

I mean, until battery tech gets much better, EV's currently have the biggest long term maintenance cost (replace old/dying batteries).
ICE vehicles do need a lot of smaller short term maintenance, and (if you don't take care of it) maybe a long term "fix/replace ICE", but that long term is usually nowhere near the price of a new battery pack. And at the least, you can go used (I don't think there's a cheaper option for EV's right now).

Replacing the battery of an EV is really expensive ($15-30k for a Tesla), but the powertrain of an internal combustion vehicle involves much more than the ICE. You have the transmission, alternator/regulator, fuel pump, catalytic converter, ECU, and more. Most people will already have that in mind considering we've all owned gas cars our whole lives.

Typically a battery will last longer than 300k miles without issues and the motor lasts significantly longer if it ever fails. Plus, looking at battery prices today isn't quite accurate as the price is reducing over time and we're talking about new and future vehicle sales. And unlike an ICE, when there are battery issues it almost always makes the vehicle less useful but not undrivable (ie. reduced range by a chunk or reduced charging speed). This makes EVs reliable even if something goes wrong, and instead of replacing the whole battery, there are options to replace a single battery module for a lower price (probably $7k). This cost alone is recuperated by gas savings every 100k miles, and after 300k miles you've saved yourself enough money for a new battery.

So I would disagree the long term costs of an EV are less. In fact I'd say the opposite considering buying a new EV is somewhat expensive still and you're right that used EV aren't readily available/affordable yet. The other thing is range is a huge thing in the US, and while Tesla has excellent charging options for long-distance and other EVs have good options, there is still the charging time that'll deter many people.

 

[Sausagemeat]

If that contributes to Russia taking over who knows what next. I don't think so. Humanity will figure out a way around the problem. Typically, when under pressure, humans find a way.

Lol, Putin isn’t bent on world domination. He’s just fed up with US meddling and Nazi militant activity in a former Soviet Union state that contains millions of Russians. Do some actual research! It sounds like you’re a victim of the mainstream press. Currently Putin is stating he’s not even going to remove statehood from the Ukraine but he is threatening that if the sanctions continue he won’t return the Ukraine to statehood.

 

[Nobina]

ICE will remain relevant because people like them, simple as. The only reason why ICE will eventually die is because the government together with carmakers will do everything in their power to force you to go electric.

 

[Squid Surprise]

Currently Putin is stating he’s not even going to remove statehood from the Ukraine but he is threatening that if the sanctions continue he won’t return the Ukraine to statehood.

lol... he will appoint a figure-head dictator who will be beholden to Russia (aka Putin)... much like the Ukraine was before they ousted the Putin-puppet a few years back...

Ask the nations who had "statehood" under the iron curtain how useful that was back in the 1950s-1980s....

 

[Dimitriid]

Oh I am sure it has nothing to do with oil and gas prices hitting record high: No way this is a transparent attempt to capitalize on that isn't it?

Just outlaw new gas cars altogether already.

 

[wiyosaya]

Lol, Putin isn’t bent on world domination. He’s just fed up with US meddling and Nazi militant activity in a former Soviet Union state that contains millions of Russians. Do some actual research! It sounds like you’re a victim of the mainstream press. Currently Putin is stating he’s not even going to remove statehood from the Ukraine but he is threatening that if the sanctions continue he won’t return the Ukraine to statehood.

IMO, counting propaganda as actual press is rather disingenuous let alone using it in a misguided attempt to counter an opinion by another TS reader. Perhaps you can find some links that prove to us that the Ukraine is run by Nazi's, other than those Russian ones you are obviously referring to?

EDIT: I'll remind you that what you are suggesting has been done before to dire consequences. Take WWII and the world buying Japanese goods until the Japanese sent them back to the US at Pearl Harbor. But, you think we should relearn that lesson? Or are you just trying to get Trump to declare you "genius"?

 

[VaRmeNsI]

Russia has really given this green dystopianism a reality check.

 

[Ludak021]

Well, there is lithium in EU, but they can't dig it due to laws regulating the pollution. So they want to pollute less developed countries without a single care for pollution in developing contraries that would welcome extra money from digging lithium. You can see how lithium mines look like north of Australia (areas are basically uninhabitable). You can see these developing "big country, huge progress" effects they had in the past, and continue to have, in India for example. They just trap (without even wanting to, it's a "benefit" ) the whole country in a cycle, and once cycle is past, they point fingers to where they got rich and accuse those countries of polluting (by the very means they forced them to use that they cant transition from because they are left underdeveloped and basically poor, just as intended, to be ready for further exploitation).
So, to sum it up, mine lithium at home if you need more. People know about lithium mines and will protest them everywhere (maybe not in Ukraine if you bribe their oligarchs but I doubt it).
Pollute at home and speak about clean EVs , at home, while burning fossil fuels to produce electricity for charging those "clean" EVs.

 

[m4a4]

No, before the Tesla dies, it already saved you enough money to buy a whole new Tesla...

Replacing the battery of an EV is really expensive ($15-30k for a Tesla), but the powertrain of an internal combustion vehicle involves much more than the ICE. You have the transmission, alternator/regulator, fuel pump, catalytic converter, ECU, and more. Most people will already have that in mind considering we've all owned gas cars our whole lives.

Typically a battery will last longer than 300k miles without issues and the motor lasts significantly longer if it ever fails. Plus, looking at battery prices today isn't quite accurate as the price is reducing over time and we're talking about new and future vehicle sales. And unlike an ICE, when there are battery issues it almost always makes the vehicle less useful but not undrivable (ie. reduced range by a chunk or reduced charging speed). This makes EVs reliable even if something goes wrong, and instead of replacing the whole battery, there are options to replace a single battery module for a lower price (probably $7k). This cost alone is recuperated by gas savings every 100k miles, and after 300k miles you've saved yourself enough money for a new battery.

So I would disagree the long term costs of an EV are less. In fact I'd say the opposite considering buying a new EV is somewhat expensive still and you're right that used EV aren't readily available/affordable yet. The other thing is range is a huge thing in the US, and while Tesla has excellent charging options for long-distance and other EVs have good options, there is still the charging time that'll deter many people.

I was focusing more on maintenance, as one thing is a constant: Batteries will always lose health the more they're used, despite how well you take care of them (with current tech). For ICE, it varies a lot, but if you take care of it (and don't have a crappy vehicle) it will last quite a lot longer (in theory). The benefit of matured tech.
And then there are no great ways to replace the batteries without going through the dealer for the majority of people (as the Right To Repair for them is pretty lackluster), which multiplies the expense.

All of this would mainly be to explain the excerp I quoted.

As for operational costs, that varies quite a bit too (however, with the current gas price trend, the gap may be widening a fair bit).
Where I live, electricity isn't all that cheap (because politicians did a short term gain for long term pain), so I know that will also depend on where you live. If its where gas is heavily taxed, the long term savings might be more than enough...

But then there are also time costs. With current tech, electric definitely costs more (in charging and with planning your route)... if you want to also go that route

 

[emmzo]

Still nobody cares of hydrogen cars. Greener, much better mileage, could easily replace a gasoline car, fast charging, but no interest whatsoever in creating a network of hydrogen stations, at least very timidly here in Europe. I wonder why are EVs seen as the best next thing, when they have so many disadvantages? Maybe because the Japanese are so much advanced in hydrogen tech and Musk won't be able to keep up?

 

[Sausagemeat]

IMO, counting propaganda as actual press is rather disingenuous let alone using it in a misguided attempt to counter an opinion by another TS reader. Perhaps you can find some links that prove to us that the Ukraine is run by Nazi's, other than those Russian ones you are obviously referring to?

EDIT: I'll remind you that what you are suggesting has been done before to dire consequences. Take WWII and the world buying Japanese goods until the Japanese sent them back to the US at Pearl Harbor. But, you think we should relearn that lesson? Or are you just trying to get Trump to declare you "genius"?

Sure, it took 3 seconds to search it on YouTube, I hope Vice and the guardian are good enough sources for you but if not there are dozens of other outlets who have covered the Nazi integration with the Ukrainian government. You have to be extremely ignorant to claim this is propoganda. Aftually, you have to have your head literally buried in the sand

Claiming that Nazis aren’t working with the Ukrainian government is no less ignorant than claiming the world is flat.

Watch the BBC ignore the obvious Nazi comment made by this Ukrainian reporter;

Also no idea why you are mentioning Trump, he’s not the president anymore, obviously he still lives rent free in your head though..

 

[koblongata]

I was focusing more on maintenance, as one thing is a constant: Batteries will always lose health the more they're used, despite how well you take care of them (with current tech). For ICE, it varies a lot, but if you take care of it (and don't have a crappy vehicle) it will last quite a lot longer (in theory). The benefit of matured tech.
And then there are no great ways to replace the batteries without going through the dealer for the majority of people (as the Right To Repair for them is pretty lackluster), which multiplies the expense.

All of this would mainly be to explain the excerp I quoted.

As for operational costs, that varies quite a bit too (however, with the current gas price trend, the gap may be widening a fair bit).
Where I live, electricity isn't all that cheap (because politicians did a short term gain for long term pain), so I know that will also depend on where you live. If its where gas is heavily taxed, the long term savings might be more than enough...

But then there are also time costs. With current tech, electric definitely costs more (in charging and with planning your route)... if you want to also go that route

Tesla Police Vehicle Saves Westport Tens of Thousands of Dollars,

A look at Tesla battery degradation and replacement after 400,000 miles

 

[koblongata]

Sure, it took 3 seconds to search it on YouTube, I hope Vice and the guardian are good enough sources for you but if not there are dozens of other outlets who have covered the Nazi integration with the Ukrainian government. You have to be extremely ignorant to claim this is propoganda. Aftually, you have to have your head literally buried in the sand

Claiming that Nazis aren’t working with the Ukrainian government is no less ignorant than claiming the world is flat.

Watch the BBC ignore the obvious Nazi comment made by this Ukrainian reporter;

Also no idea why you are mentioning Trump, he’s not the president anymore, obviously he still lives rent free in your head though..

Hold an independence referendum again in Donbas is the only solution, hosted by a 3rd party, not by a Pro-Russian government.

 

[Mithan]

"The much-needed network of EV charging stations may have been expanding in various regions, but several studies performed by market research firms seem to indicate consumers aren’t willing to pay more upfront for an EV despite lower maintenance and operating costs."

The main reason I wouldn't buy one is I would still need another car for any "road trips"... as there are simply not enough charging stations - nor is it feasible to wait hours at a station to "fill up".

When it takes the same amount of time to fully charge my car from "empty" as it does to fill up a gas tank - and charging stations are as plentiful as gas stations.... then we are talking

Lower Operating costs, and then the battery needs replacing after 8 or 10 years, and its basically the same as the Gas vehicle operating costs.

What the government should do is allow gasoline engines to continue, but just put maximum size restrictions on the engine.

Anyways, we are probably headed for a huge oil shock over the next month or two due to Russian's war, especially if it goes on for a while. The best thing for Climate is $150/barrel oil.

Not good for consumers, but its good for the environment.