Seagate will offer 18TB and 20TB HDDs next year

Humza

TechSpot Staff
Staff member

Even though its hard drives don't seem to fare particularly well in Backblazes' reliability tests, Seagate appears to be on track for the rollout of its large capacity hard drives.

With a 16TB HDD launched earlier this year, in both enterprise and consumer versions, the company now looks forward to introducing an 18TB model by early 2020, that's reportedly based on the same 9-platter platform as the current generation.

"We are preparing to ship 18 TB drives in the first half of calendar year 2020 to maintain our industry capacity leadership," said Seagate CEO Dave Mosley. The company will also bring its first 'Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording' or HAMR-based drive in the second half of next year, starting with a 20TB model.

The technology will enable Seagate to achieve "at least 20% areal density CAGR over the next decade." while the company's MACH.2 dual actuator solution, which brought in its first revenue in the September quarter, will see increased adoption across upcoming models to provide fast access and scale drive capacity without affecting performance.

A further look at Seagate's roadmap shows disk drives with 30TB capacities arriving somewhere in late 2023, while a 50TB model could appear on the market by 2026.

Western Digital is also prepping its MAMR-based high capacity disk drives, and Seagate expects to beat WD to market before the latter starts volume shipment of their own 18TB and 20TB models.

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VitalyT

Russ-Puss
I've got news for Seagate's pipe-dream. There won't be any 50TB HDD in 2026. The entire HDD market will be almost non-existent at that point.

In 2026, SSD-s on PCI-Express v6 will be a common place, with average read/write speeds of about 20 - 30GB/s, and capacities well over 10GB. Nobody is gonna want storage devices that are 100 times slower, even if they are offered for free.

It's only 2019, and we already have 2TB M.2 drives for under $400 that can do 5GB/s. In the coming months, 4TB ones are joining in, with another price dive.
 
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p51d007

TS Evangelist
Other than less expensive HDD's for server farms, I don't see the "need" especially in the consumer
market. SSD's, NvMe's are taking over that market.
 

Plutoisaplanet

TS Addict
I've got news for Seagate's pipe-dream. There won't be any 50TB HDD in 2026. The entire HDD market will be almost non-existent at that point.

In 2026, SSD-s on PCI-Express v6 will be a common place, with average read/write speeds of about 20 - 30GB/s, and capacities well over 10GB. Nobody is gonna want storage devices that are 100 times slower, even if they are offered for free.

It's only 2019, and we already have 2TB M.2 drives for under $400 that can do 5GB/s. In the coming months, 4TB ones are joining in, with another price dive.
You say that, yet companies continue to use tape drives to this day. As a matter of fact there are 20TB tape drives you can buy today from IBM.
 

Squid Surprise

TS Evangelist
I've got news for Seagate's pipe-dream. There won't be any 50TB HDD in 2026. The entire HDD market will be almost non-existent at that point.

In 2026, SSD-s on PCI-Express v6 will be a common place, with average read/write speeds of about 20 - 30GB/s, and capacities well over 10GB. Nobody is gonna want storage devices that are 100 times slower, even if they are offered for free.

It's only 2019, and we already have 2TB M.2 drives for under $400 that can do 5GB/s. In the coming months, 4TB ones are joining in, with another price dive.
lol... maybe not for personal use... but enterprises will certainly still be using them... as a previous poster already stated, some companies are still using tape drives!

I'm glad that you think you're smarter than the CEOs of all these corporations - obviously they don't know what they're doing...
 
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Uncle Al

TS Evangelist
Doubtful that the market for these drives will dry up anytime soon until and unless the SSD's can match the size and cost .... which is doubtful at this point in time .....
 
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Evernessince

地獄らしい人間動物園
I've got news for Seagate's pipe-dream. There won't be any 50TB HDD in 2026. The entire HDD market will be almost non-existent at that point.

In 2026, SSD-s on PCI-Express v6 will be a common place, with average read/write speeds of about 20 - 30GB/s, and capacities well over 10GB. Nobody is gonna want storage devices that are 100 times slower, even if they are offered for free.

It's only 2019, and we already have 2TB M.2 drives for under $400 that can do 5GB/s. In the coming months, 4TB ones are joining in, with another price dive.

At this point increasing the speed further won't attract more people to use SSDs for mass storage. Price is the issue. They are still more then 8 times as expensive. Until they cut that to less then 2 times, I don't see everyone making the switch. Honestly it's a lot cheaper just to use mostly HDDs and have an SSD as a cache drive.
 
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arrowflash

TS Booster
I've got news for Seagate's pipe-dream. There won't be any 50TB HDD in 2026. The entire HDD market will be almost non-existent at that point.

In 2026, SSD-s on PCI-Express v6 will be a common place, with average read/write speeds of about 20 - 30GB/s, and capacities well over 10GB. Nobody is gonna want storage devices that are 100 times slower, even if they are offered for free.

It's only 2019, and we already have 2TB M.2 drives for under $400 that can do 5GB/s. In the coming months, 4TB ones are joining in, with another price dive.
I disagree, HDDs will still have a much, much lower $/GB cost for a long time. Even if SSDs are becoming standard even in low cost PCs, people who need to backup and archive massive amounts of data and aren't running some datacenter, will still keep buying HDDs. Especially for offline archival, unless manufacturers and engineers sort out the long-term data retention issues with powered down SSDs.
 
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20 TB NVMe SSD: 10x $250 2TB HP EX950 = $2500
20 TB HDD: 2x $200 10TB Seagate = $400

Drives of all types fail so you need duplicate backups.

So $5000 for SSD vs. $800 for HDD backups. I'll take $800 for HDD, which of course is what I've done. I would much rather build a $4200 gaming rig with that difference than utterly waste it on a superfast SSD *backup*.
 

AMDIA

TS Rookie
I've got news for Seagate's pipe-dream. There won't be any 50TB HDD in 2026. The entire HDD market will be almost non-existent at that point.

In 2026, SSD-s on PCI-Express v6 will be a common place, with average read/write speeds of about 20 - 30GB/s, and capacities well over 10GB. Nobody is gonna want storage devices that are 100 times slower, even if they are offered for free.

It's only 2019, and we already have 2TB M.2 drives for under $400 that can do 5GB/s. In the coming months, 4TB ones are joining in, with another price dive.
Not really, movies can play instantly on a HDD. so avid movie collectors will find this useful and not see any kind of wait time to play. Also many older games and especially the emulator scene would benefit from such a huge storage space and still load games within seconds. Archiving other media like magazines, comics, books etc. will all be just as fast to open. HDD still have their place I feel for some time yet.
 

Danny101

TS Guru
The ever increasing need for more data ensures that hard drives will be around for quite a while. If they could get the speed up that would be nice.
 

Bohefus

TS Rookie
I've got news for Seagate's pipe-dream. There won't be any 50TB HDD in 2026. The entire HDD market will be almost non-existent at that point.

In 2026, SSD-s on PCI-Express v6 will be a common place, with average read/write speeds of about 20 - 30GB/s, and capacities well over 10GB. Nobody is gonna want storage devices that are 100 times slower, even if they are offered for free.

It's only 2019, and we already have 2TB M.2 drives for under $400 that can do 5GB/s. In the coming months, 4TB ones are joining in, with another price dive.
May be right but there's still a market for hard drive storage. The per gb cost on hard drives is still much cheaper than going to solid state and sometimes it's just not necessary to have super fast backup storage.
 

VitalyT

Russ-Puss
To all who opposed my earlier post. I'm sorry to say, you guys do not appreciate how fast the SSD industry is developing. In 7 years (2026) it will eliminate by then obsolete HDD market.

Some replies are just outright stupid...
20 TB HDD: 2x $200 10TB Seagate = $400
By 2026, a 20TB SSD will be under $400.
 
To all who opposed my earlier post. I'm sorry to say, you guys do not appreciate how fast the SSD industry is developing. In 7 years (2026) it will eliminate by then obsolete HDD market.

Some replies are just outright stupid...


By 2026, a 20TB SSD will be under $400.
Lol, nice attack.

Today, you can get a 12 TB HD for $180. That's now down to $300 for 20TB. Keep guessing about imaginary SSD prices in 2026 vs HDD prices.
 

Danny101

TS Guru
To all who opposed my earlier post. I'm sorry to say, you guys do not appreciate how fast the SSD industry is developing. In 7 years (2026) it will eliminate by then obsolete HDD market.

Some replies are just outright stupid...


By 2026, a 20TB SSD will be under $400.
Maybe, maybe not, but 20TB HDD's aren't really directed toward the average consumer. I'm an enthusiast, gamer, and power user and I still can't see myself ever needing that much storage. Certainly not in the near future. Businesses, small or large, work off of margins and the lowly HDD is often enough performance without breaking the bank.
 

arrowflash

TS Booster
To all who opposed my earlier post. I'm sorry to say, you guys do not appreciate how fast the SSD industry is developing. In 7 years (2026) it will eliminate by then obsolete HDD market.

Some replies are just outright stupid...

By 2026, a 20TB SSD will be under $400.
I hope you're right and we are wrong, but given the current progression of $/GB on SSDs I think 20TB under $400 in 7 years is a bit too optimistic. I can see 10TB SSDs under $400 in 2026 though. 20 TB, maybe by 2030. This is not the 1990s / early 2000s anymore, Moore's Law has slowed down significantly in all areas.

That's, of course, assuming there isn't another natural disaster or fire in some Asian manufacturing plant that all storage manufacturers will use as an excuse to hike up prices and keep them pretty much frozen for 3 or 4 years along with tech progression, because that has never happened before...

And like I said, as long as manufacturers don't sort out the data retention issues with powered down SSDs (it has improved, but it's still a problem), HDDs will remain the sole option for offline archival purposes (other than backup dedicated media such as tapes and optical disks, of course - but HDDs are a lot cheaper and more practical for regular users and small businesses).

As for the person you replied to, they were obviously talking about current prices and needs, not speculating how things might be like 7 years down the road...
 

Bohefus

TS Rookie
To all who opposed my earlier post. I'm sorry to say, you guys do not appreciate how fast the SSD industry is developing. In 7 years (2026) it will eliminate by then obsolete HDD market.

Some replies are just outright stupid...


By 2026, a 20TB SSD will be under $400.
You may be right but you are just speculating ... None of the replies I read were "stupid" IMHO
 
Maybe, maybe not, but 20TB HDD's aren't really directed toward the average consumer. I'm an enthusiast, gamer, and power user and I still can't see myself ever needing that much storage. Certainly not in the near future. Businesses, small or large, work off of margins and the lowly HDD is often enough performance without breaking the bank.
Games are ballooning in size, I have 2TB SSDs in 2 machines used for boot and games storage and that free space is dwindling faster than anticipated. In 7 years 20TB is not out of the question for regular use, especially if SSDs really do come down in price as drastically as some people hope.

Of course if (affordable) internet speeds and cloud storage expand faster, then all this local storage may cease to become an issue.
 

Danny101

TS Guru
Games are ballooning in size, I have 2TB SSDs in 2 machines used for boot and games storage and that free space is dwindling faster than anticipated. In 7 years 20TB is not out of the question for regular use, especially if SSDs really do come down in price as drastically as some people hope.

Of course if (affordable) internet speeds and cloud storage expand faster, then all this local storage may cease to become an issue.
Possibly. I usually play only a few games in a year. My game library is rather small I suppose in comparison to the average gamer. So many games in a genre are so similar that the only difference I see is a different coat of paint. Movies are the same way. I watch a movie today with different characters as it's playing I would think to myself "I've seen this plot before. Yeah! 20 years ago!" Not much new under the sun.