US tech czar warns China is only two years behind in semiconductor and chip design

[Skye Jacobs]

TL;DR: White House technology adviser David Sacks has raised concerns that China is rapidly narrowing the gap with the United States in semiconductor design, estimating the difference is now just one and a half to two years. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Sacks said Chinese companies, especially Huawei, have become adept at finding ways around US restrictions on advanced chip technology.

According to Sacks, Huawei is making swift progress in chip design and could soon begin exporting its hardware, although the company still faces challenges in producing high-end GPUs.

Huawei's momentum is visible in the Chinese market, where it is preparing to ramp up shipments of its new 910C AI chip to domestic customers. This chip, which integrates two of Huawei's previous 910B processors, is expected to deliver performance comparable to Nvidia's H100, one of the leading AI chips globally.

While this approach does not represent a technological breakthrough, it effectively doubles computational power and memory, offering Chinese firms a viable alternative as US export restrictions tighten.

Sacks warned that if Huawei and other Chinese firms succeed in bringing their products to the global market, American companies could face much stiffer competition in AI hardware and related technologies.

He also cautioned that overly strict US export controls could backfire. Limiting American chip sales too aggressively, he argued, might allow rivals to catch up and erode the US lead – especially if the United States misses opportunities to establish its technology as the global standard.

This concern, Sacks said, was one reason the Trump administration decided to drop a Biden-era rule that restricted GPU exports and required special licenses for some international buyers.

While Sacks acknowledged the importance of keeping the most advanced US chips out of China, he stressed that export controls should not hinder sales to allied countries that are willing to comply with American security requirements. He emphasized that the administration's goal is to make the US technology stack the preferred choice worldwide, giving American companies the largest possible share of the international market.

Sacks's comments come as Huawei's founder recently admitted the company's GPUs remain a generation behind the top US products. However, with many AI applications not requiring the latest hardware, Sacks suggested that Huawei could still become a formidable competitor if it can offer powerful, affordable products and build a strong ecosystem around them.

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US tech czar warns China is only two years behind in semiconductor and chip design

 

[noel24]

Not that I like communist-like dictatorships, but where is this obsession with Chinese tech comes from?
US and Western world are sitting on one hand while masturbating with the other, while Chinese just buying stuff and learning.
It's the same situation We went through with Japanese cars and electronics, and then with South Korean cars and electronics.
Just start taxing big corpos and spend that money on technology grants. And abandon the thought that Chinese follow Free Trade Organisation rules. Cut them off, but quietly, not with a great halo, fake reasons.

 

[HotToz]

Just as I once assumed that the restrictions imposed on China would backfire — pushing the country to develop its own solutions, both in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography and chip design — I now believe that the United States will not be able to maintain its dominance in global hardware sales. This is because its products will be significantly more expensive compared to Chinese devices and equipment.

When the public has the option to choose between two devices with the same performance and features, but one is considerably more affordable, it’s only logical to choose the more accessible option. It’s a simple matter of market economics.

 

[Thatsdisgusting]

Only two years behind

So, where's my RTY 4090, lebowski? Where is it, 250$\piece?!

 

[NumberNine]

They're doing everything they possibly can to prevent China from selling VRAM to Americans at prices that Nvidia cannot match.

This would circumvent the current HBM and VRAM control scheme, breaking exploitive pricing and gutting their profits.

They know they can't afford to compete.

 

[Megalomaniac]

Not that I like communist-like dictatorships, but where is this obsession with Chinese tech comes from?
US and Western world are sitting on one hand while masturbating with the other, while Chinese just buying stuff and learning.
It's the same situation We went through with Japanese cars and electronics, and then with South Korean cars and electronics.
Just start taxing big corpos and spend that money on technology grants. And abandon the thought that Chinese follow Free Trade Organisation rules. Cut them off, but quietly, not with a great halo, fake reasons.

The American Neocons KNOW that the two countries standing in their way of global domination are China and Russia. It's old news. Some argue that the proxy war in Ukraine is wearing Russia down but others argue that the Ukraine-Russian war and even the Israel-Iran war are there to wear down China as well.

China absolutely will achieve dominance in AI/semiconductors and blow past Nvidia. Even Jensen Huang has said so.

China's dominance mostly comes from a highly educated population between ages 20 and 45 which is larger than America's entire population (350,000,000). There is no way to sanction China as America does to its less powerful, non-nuclear armed victims. China has power throughout Asia, Africa and South America already.

All America will do is ultimately isolate itself. America may end up like North Korea.

BRICS is the future.

 

[Megalomaniac]

China 2 years behind?

Chances are, they're already ahead.

China has demonstrated its ability to manufacture at scale with Electric Vehicles, aircraft, consumer electronics and just about everywhere else. I'm not afraid of China like the Neocons are. I recognize that there's no way to hold them back and that they will force America to compete in a way that they never wanted to.

China has been allowing America to live a quality of life that American productivity doesn't justify.

Trump's trade war failed before it started.

 

[Str8Shot]

Not that I like communist-like dictatorships, but where is this obsession with Chinese tech comes from?
US and Western world are sitting on one hand while masturbating with the other, while Chinese just buying stuff and learning.
It's the same situation We went through with Japanese cars and electronics, and then with South Korean cars and electronics.
Just start taxing big corpos and spend that money on technology grants. And abandon the thought that Chinese follow Free Trade Organisation rules. Cut them off, but quietly, not with a great halo, fake reasons.

It is the basis of this self-inflicted rat-race we’re in, propagated by propaganda through media, videogames, and the same in those “rogue” countries against us. It’s a deliberate plan to keep the MIC going, because ultimately, all competition ends in war: if we can outcompete them, we’ll invade them is the motto.

 

[BuckarooBonzaii]

One thing about China, when things are thrown against them, they continue as if nothing happens and don't complain like what the West does. They're still determine to defeat the West which gives them the determination.

 

[SRB]

They're doing everything they possibly can to prevent China from selling VRAM to Americans at prices that Nvidia cannot match.

This would circumvent the current HBM and VRAM control scheme, breaking exploitive pricing and gutting their profits.

They know they can't afford to compete.

Boy, do you have Nvidia's sales model wrong.....the hell with the Chinese selling the vram. Last I checked, Nvidia does not, nor have they ever, made VRAM or HBM. They put it out for bid, get a contract to purchase far below anything AMD, Intel, Qualcom, et. al. can buy it for, and then sell it paired with their chips as a "matched set" for far more then they pay for it. You don't want to pay for their ram, you don't get any Blackwell, Hopper, etc.

As far as the tech goes, I've been hearing for years that China will pass us any time now. The problem is, there is only so far stealing what other people are doing will get you. Once you run out of other people's ideas, you're on your own. If they were even close, Jensen would be screaming to shut down their tech pipeline, because they would be cutting into his margins. The fact that he wants to sell, sell, sell, to China should tell you that Nvidia is in no danger of being replace by China any time soon.

 

[toooooot]

If he was an honest man, he would instead say "me and my bros are solely responsible for China being only 2 years behind USA. You just wait, in 5 years we will make sure it is 2 years ahead of us!"

 

[toooooot]

The problem is, there is only so far stealing what other people are doing will get you. Once you run out of other people's ideas, you're on your own

Valid argument.

 

[Axeia]

BRICS is the future.

Let's see.
[ B ]razil - Scores pretty poorly on the corruption index, #100 out of #180 countries
[ R ]ussia - Has a aging population problem that has increased in severity due to losing by some estimates 1 million men not to mention those that fled the country. Economic predictions once the war economy are very very dire. Also shown to have a massive corruption problem resulting in military equipment not being maintained. Ruled by a dictator that has been in power for over a decade now.
[ I ]ndia - Actually promising, massive population and in a state where things can pretty much only get better. However famously headstrong when it actually comes to resigning itself to anything (it likes to just take the best deals from whatever side)
[ C ]hina - Extremely impressive growth but the 1 child policy, combined with wealth stored as 'real estate' their economy is like a timebomb. They're strong now and in the near future but after that thinks are looking dire. Very popular with the old people who saw massive economic growth, rather unpopular with the youth due to the chinese job market amongst other things.
[ S ]outh Africa - From what I've seen there's many promising people there and they'd have the potential to grow as fast as China if it didn't have corruption problems leading to things like the powernet dropping out almost daily hampering economic growth.

The BRICS+ members have a lot of similar problems. It's supposed to be sort of an alternative to the G7 (and to a lesser degree the EU and even lesser degree NATO) hoping to break up the USD hegemon[e]y. But all of its members have big problems and their bonds don't run very deep. India for example is looking to buy US and EU defense equipment instead of Russian. China and India also have had a clash over a a territorial dispute as recent as 2020.

 

[Axeia]

White House technology adviser David Sacks has raised concerns that China is rapidly narrowing the gap with the United States in semiconductor design

Those last two words are important - design.
Don't think that's the the hard part. Sure, they don't have an Intel, AMD, NVIDIA or Broadcom (or Mediatek - although they're eying up Taiwan) but there's quite a few companies designing high end chips. Xiaomi and Hauwei would be key players there for China I suppose.

On production they're quite a bit further behind afaik. SMIC is on 7nm supposedly but with a yield 'below 50%' (I see some sites stating 40%) - and partially state owned so I wouldn't be surprised if those numbers in reality would be lower still (China likes to save face by overstating things). All the 'nm' stuff is nonsense nowadays anyway. Looking at power draw etc I think their 7nm might be somewhere around Intels/TSMCS 10nm processes (2016 tech) which has yield rates of at least 80% (94%+ even). SMICs upcoming 5nm process seems to have roughly half the yields of 7nm.
So yeah, design they might be pretty close but manufacturing they're still quite a bit behind.

Although I never really got the 'concern' before . Stuff like rockets and even state of the art jets don't exactly run bleeding edge designs and aren't usually all that power constrained. China's domestic chip industry for that would be a-okay. Heck if anything the chips I'd expect to find in a missile are probably similar to the stuff you find on typical Chinese microcontrollers like the ESP32 (which is produced on TSMC 40nm even).
Now that AI is becoming a thing, yeah... modern production processes are definitely a plus. But then the yields don't matter that much either, the military throws money at things like they need to get rid of it.

 

[TooQik]

The fact that he [Jensen] wants to sell, sell, sell, to China should tell you that Nvidia is in no danger of being replace by China any time soon.

I think it's quite the opposite, Nvidia needs to sell as much product as they can into China while they still have the upper hand, because they know China will eventually be able to produce similar technology at a lower price point, and effectively cut out future sales to the area.

 

[Megalomaniac]

Let's see.
[ B ]razil - Scores pretty poorly on the corruption index, #100 out of #180 countries
[ R ]ussia - Has a aging population problem that has increased in severity due to losing by some estimates 1 million men not to mention those that fled the country. Economic predictions once the war economy are very very dire. Also shown to have a massive corruption problem resulting in military equipment not being maintained. Ruled by a dictator that has been in power for over a decade now.
[ I ]ndia - Actually promising, massive population and in a state where things can pretty much only get better. However famously headstrong when it actually comes to resigning itself to anything (it likes to just take the best deals from whatever side)
[ C ]hina - Extremely impressive growth but the 1 child policy, combined with wealth stored as 'real estate' their economy is like a timebomb. They're strong now and in the near future but after that thinks are looking dire. Very popular with the old people who saw massive economic growth, rather unpopular with the youth due to the chinese job market amongst other things.
[ S ]outh Africa - From what I've seen there's many promising people there and they'd have the potential to grow as fast as China if it didn't have corruption problems leading to things like the powernet dropping out almost daily hampering economic growth.

The BRICS+ members have a lot of similar problems. It's supposed to be sort of an alternative to the G7 (and to a lesser degree the EU and even lesser degree NATO) hoping to break up the USD hegemon[e]y. But all of its members have big problems and their bonds don't run very deep. India for example is looking to buy US and EU defense equipment instead of Russian. China and India also have had a clash over a a territorial dispute as recent as 2020.

Let's see:
China's one child policy was a setback, but the wealthiest Chinese will just prey on Southeast Asian females to make their families. The leftover women in China 剩女 will simply wither away. China's tech and manufacturing dominance is undisputed.

South Africa's only problem is a history of racism and apartheid. China will ultimately help them, Brazil, Russia and India shrug off the effects of American and European racism. China is the future. And that's why the neocons are terrified. And they should be.

 

[DukeJukem]

China has been allowing America to live a quality of life that American productivity doesn't justify.

Are you implying americans live a nice quality life while having garbage productivity? If so idk what "quality" of life you're referring to unless it's trash tier quality. the only thing "good" about america anymore is the fact you don't have to worry about getting stabbed/robbed around every corner and being able to post almost anything you want on the internet without having the autorities showing up at your door.

otherwise everything is trash. the roads are trash, the cars are trash, the food is trash, the quality of goods is trash, minimum wage vs minimum cost of living "comfortably" is trash, interest rates are trash, healthcare options are trash, being taxed while seeing nothing physical for it aside from roads taking 10 years to fix is trash, construction of anything in general takes forever while china assembles an entire bridge in 3 days...which is trash, college is trash unless you're on a scholarship, relationships are trash, the megacorps that spawned inside of this country that are currently ruining a lot of things for consumers are trash and even if I've missed something, to top it all off, everyone hates each other, which is trash.

this country sucks. I would've rather spawned on a small island with enough food to feed me for life with literally nobody else there while being free of diabetes and celiac disease than live here lol. nobody cares about you in the united states unless you have money, which is trash. perhaps you'll luck out and get state funded health insurance to keep yourself alive through all of this garbage lol.

 

[GeoffreyA]

[ S ]outh Africa - From what I've seen there's many promising people there and they'd have the potential to grow as fast as China if it didn't have corruption problems leading to things like the powernet dropping out almost daily hampering economic growth.

The BRICS+ members have a lot of similar problems. It's supposed to be sort of an alternative to the G7 (and to a lesser degree the EU and even lesser degree NATO) hoping to break up the USD hegemon[e]y. But all of its members have big problems and their bonds don't run very deep. India for example is looking to buy US and EU defense equipment instead of Russian. China and India also have had a clash over a a territorial dispute as recent as 2020.

Amazon EC2, for example, was built right here in South Africa. As for our power cuts, termed "loadshedding," it hasn't been a problem for over a year.

In the Global South, we see clearly that this is a big world with various people, something that seems to escape the US, except in a false threatening light, and the West to a lesser extent. The quicker countries can embrace multilateralism, the quicker everyone can get along better; but many are still living under 19th-century mentality, and some are tenaciously clutching on to declining hegemony.

 

[OortCloud]

In the past I might have thought this a bad thing, but looking at the current US 'regime' I'm far from sure anymore.
Also, the awful monopolistic behaviour of AMD, Intel and especially Nvidia (and TSMC) has ratcheted silicon prices up so high a bit of competition will definitely be a good thing.

 

[Theinsanegamer]

Who would have guessed that a nationalist government focusing on independece would accelerate quicker then a country consistently being torn apart by people who hate themselves and their fellow citizens?

Wow. Amazing development!

If he was an honest man, he would instead say "me and my bros are solely responsible for China being only 2 years behind USA. You just wait, in 5 years we will make sure it is 2 years ahead of us!"

This has been going on far longer then Orange Bad Man. Decades of exporting our manufacturing and technology while allowing them to send boatloads of students to learn from our universities and corporations is what helped build this, along with an intense desire to supersede the US in every aspect. Political leaders, Corporations, and the public helped fuel this in their desire to maintain their status quo of greed and hedonism.

It was only a matter of time.

Are you implying americans live a nice quality life while having garbage productivity? If so idk what "quality" of life you're referring to unless it's trash tier quality. the only thing "good" about america anymore is the fact you don't have to worry about getting stabbed/robbed around every corner and being able to post almost anything you want on the internet without having the autorities showing up at your door.

otherwise everything is trash. the roads are trash, the cars are trash, the food is trash, the quality of goods is trash, minimum wage vs minimum cost of living "comfortably" is trash, interest rates are trash, healthcare options are trash, being taxed while seeing nothing physical for it aside from roads taking 10 years to fix is trash, construction of anything in general takes forever while china assembles an entire bridge in 3 days...which is trash, college is trash unless you're on a scholarship, relationships are trash, the megacorps that spawned inside of this country that are currently ruining a lot of things for consumers are trash and even if I've missed something, to top it all off, everyone hates each other, which is trash.

this country sucks. I would've rather spawned on a small island with enough food to feed me for life with literally nobody else there while being free of diabetes and celiac disease than live here lol. nobody cares about you in the united states unless you have money, which is trash. perhaps you'll luck out and get state funded health insurance to keep yourself alive through all of this garbage lol.

This country "sucks", yet you're still here complaining. Curious. Nothing is stopping you from leaving, if the rest of the world is so much better. Why do you continue to live in the trash heap?

Of course then you'd have to admit that the reddit tier "America sucks everywhere else is so much better" is some bizzaro world cope from internet dwellers sitting in their mothers basements. Every country has problems, but if America was so awful, it wouldn't be seeing net migration from every country on earth save Australia. If immigrants that cant speak english can succeed in living upper class lifestyles, its not the country thats the problem.

Believe it or not, if you're not a lazybones, America has a pretty good quality of life. Even if you ARE a lazybones, between section 8 and food stamps and endless welfare programs, until very recently you could suckle upon the government's teat and live a life of lazy excess.

In the past I might have thought this a bad thing, but looking at the current US 'regime' I'm far from sure anymore.
Also, the awful monopolistic behaviour of AMD, Intel and especially Nvidia (and TSMC) has ratcheted silicon prices up so high a bit of competition will definitely be a good thing.

Imagine glazing Xi's tyranny because you're upset your preferred candidate isnt in power.

 

[Megalomaniac]

It was only a matter of time.
This country "sucks", yet you're still here complaining. Curious. Nothing is stopping you from leaving, if the rest of the world is so much better. Why do you continue to live in the trash heap?

That reply always makes me laugh. America literally just bombed Iran last night in a clear violation ot the War Powers Act and International law.

Go somewhere else?

Where would anyone be safe from the American terrorists?

 

[SRB]

I think it's quite the opposite, Nvidia needs to sell as much product as they can into China while they still have the upper hand, because they know China will eventually be able to produce similar technology at a lower price point, and effectively cut out future sales to the area.

I think this thinking is an outgrowth of a few different lines of thinking that can best be described as the "America is not worthy" crowd. Leaving the fact that many on here are rooting for America to be "knocked down a peg", the idea that China is a powerhouse and a juggernaut that cannot be stopped is largely based solely on Chinese press releases and propaganda.

Deepseek was the end of the Nvidia monopoly because it ran on cheaper hardware. That lasted until it was discovered it was mostly RUN on Nvidia hardware. Next Huawei was going to mop the floor with their new "home grown" chips. Until it was discovered that TSMC was suckered into making them, not China. Then, a couple of weeks ago, a couple of Chinese hyperscalers tested Huawei's latest and greatest, and found that they overheated badly. They loudly announce the good news and bury the bad news.

I'm not saying China is not a threat. The have the best IP stealing organization ever seen. The have a massive workforce of drones in service to the party (what many people think is going on here). And they have enough resources to bankroll anything the wish (at least for now, since U.S. consumers are the ones throwing money at them). Add in that China sees themselves as the future leaders of the world, and, unlike the west, are not impatient, and are going to keep at is for as long as it takes, is cause for concern. But, they still have many, many roadblocks to passing us. It's always amazed me that we have Intel and Samsung having difficulty making chips with some of the best engineers, but China only needs a couple of years?

 

[kira setsu]

I think this thinking is an outgrowth of a few different lines of thinking that can best be described as the "America is not worthy" crowd. Leaving the fact that many on here are rooting for America to be "knocked down a peg", the idea that China is a powerhouse and a juggernaut that cannot be stopped is largely based solely on Chinese press releases and propaganda.

Deepseek was the end of the Nvidia monopoly because it ran on cheaper hardware. That lasted until it was discovered it was mostly RUN on Nvidia hardware. Next Huawei was going to mop the floor with their new "home grown" chips. Until it was discovered that TSMC was suckered into making them, not China. Then, a couple of weeks ago, a couple of Chinese hyperscalers tested Huawei's latest and greatest, and found that they overheated badly. They loudly announce the good news and bury the bad news.

I'm not saying China is not a threat. The have the best IP stealing organization ever seen. The have a massive workforce of drones in service to the party (what many people think is going on here). And they have enough resources to bankroll anything the wish (at least for now, since U.S. consumers are the ones throwing money at them). Add in that China sees themselves as the future leaders of the world, and, unlike the west, are not impatient, and are going to keep at is for as long as it takes, is cause for concern. But, they still have many, many roadblocks to passing us. It's always amazed me that we have Intel and Samsung having difficulty making chips with some of the best engineers, but China only needs a couple of years?

All China has to do is keep a steady pace and us americans will be in its back window.

were our own worst enemy at this point, everyday we make another move that just handicaps us in some way.

that's all I'll say or else it'll just become a meandering rant.

 

[maxxcool7421]

Not that I like communist-like dictatorships, but where is this obsession with Chinese tech comes from?
US and Western world are sitting on one hand while masturbating with the other, while Chinese just buying stuff and learning.
It's the same situation We went through with Japanese cars and electronics, and then with South Korean cars and electronics.
Just start taxing big corpos and spend that money on technology grants. And abandon the thought that Chinese follow Free Trade Organisation rules. Cut them off, but quietly, not with a great halo, fake reasons.

Your CHATGTP needs to learn better formatting and pacing ...

 

[Beerfloat]

China is a terrible country for its own citizens and for the rest of the world. Anyone who has the opportunity takes their family out of there.

But the US is in a sad period at the moment, and in no state to counter China's rise. We're way too preoccupied with navelgazing and feeling sorry for ourselves. The reelection of the least competent President ever with his nightmare cabinet of clowns selected for good hair is the kind of decadence we can not afford.

There's no shame in looking at what other countries are doing to achieve way better outcomes in such areas like quality of life, health, education, equality and productivity. American exceptionalism does not mean we can just stop trying to improve ourselves. We need to stop blaming poor people and our allies for our woes and man the eff up.