Budget smartphones are the next victim of the memory crisis

[midian182]

Crystal ball: Following predictions that the memory crisis is going to kill off sub-$500 PCs, we're now hearing that budget smartphones could face the same fate. According to Omdia, global shipments of smartphones priced below $400 will fall 22% this year, causing the overall market to decline 12% YoY.

Omdia writes that, due to the familiar issue of rising DRAM and NAND prices, mid-to-low-end smartphones are struggling with memory costs, leading to the 22% YoY decline. The problem is that phones in this segment are already built to such thin margins that there isn't much left to cut.

In the first quarter of 2026, memory accounted for nearly 60% of the total bill of materials (BOM) in sub-$400 smartphones. In devices priced below $99, that figure exceeded 64%.

Omdia says the memory cost share in the sub-$400 segment nearly doubled between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026, while even phones above $400 saw memory's share rise by more than 100%.

Vendors have tried to absorb the hit by trimming costs elsewhere, including display panels, sensors, and RF modules, where supply is still relatively plentiful. But that only works up to a point. Low-end phones are already designed around the tightest possible cost structures, which makes it difficult to offset higher DRAM and NAND prices without either raising retail prices or making the devices worse.

Zaker Li, principal analyst in Omdia's consumer team, said the situation will worsen as memory prices keep rising over the coming quarters.

Li added that companies including Transsion, Oppo, Vivo, Honor, and Xiaomi are being forced to significantly raise retail prices just to maintain thin profit margins.

Because people buying cheap phones usually see the price as the most important factor, a $150 handset becoming a $200 handset could be enough to kill demand. Omdia says vendors are therefore gradually retreating from the low-end segment this year.

Omdia expects smartphones priced above $400 to remain resilient and grow 5.7% in 2026, helped by vendors shifting their focus to higher-mid-range and high-end products, price increases pushing more devices into higher bands, and wealthier buyers being less likely to put off a purchase. However, the overall global market is still expected to decline by 12%.

It's not just budget phones facing extinction. Gartner predicted that the AI-driven memory crisis could wipe out sub-$500 PCs by 2028. The analysis firm also estimated that combined DRAM and SSD prices will rise 130% by the end of 2026, pushing PC prices up 17% and smartphone prices up 13% compared with 2025.

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Budget smartphones are the next victim of the memory crisis

 

[LordVile95]

Don’t really get budget smartphones. They’re just fast tracked ewaste

 

[Dreadcthulhu]

Don’t really get budget smartphones. They’re just fast tracked ewaste

My wife needed a new phone earlier this year (she cracked the screen on her old one) got her a 2024 Motorola G Stylus that was on sale for $190. And its great. Everything runs well (granted she uses it for basic message, web browsing, some pictures, and her fifty bajillion alarms and calendar reminders to keep herself on task lol), the full HD OLED screen is really nice, still has SD card slot & headphone jack, camera is adequate. She has had no complaints aside from the software working a bit differently than the Samsung she had earlier. Unless you game or are a heavy into phone photography I don't see any point in paying more than that.

 

[Theinsanegamer]

My wife needed a new phone earlier this year (she cracked the screen on her old one) got her a 2024 Motorola G Stylus that was on sale for $190. And its great. Everything runs well (granted she uses it for basic message, web browsing, some pictures, and her fifty bajillion alarms and calendar reminders to keep herself on task lol), the full HD OLED screen is really nice, still has SD card slot & headphone jack, camera is adequate. She has had no complaints aside from the software working a bit differently than the Samsung she had earlier. Unless you game or are a heavy into phone photography I don't see any point in paying more than that.

I get that, but that do snt mean they are not fast tracked e waste. An expensive phone is going to last a lot longer without failing. That's why I stopped buying moto g phones.

I still occasionally see people rocking iPhone 6s or 7 models, but I can't remember the last time I saw someone with an og pixel, or a Samsung s9, or a moto z play or moto x.

 

[Dreadcthulhu]

I get that, but that do snt mean they are not fast tracked e waste. An expensive phone is going to last a lot longer without failing. That's why I stopped buying moto g phones.

I still occasionally see people rocking iPhone 6s or 7 models, but I can't remember the last time I saw someone with an og pixel, or a Samsung s9, or a moto z play or moto x.

You might have some selection bias there; far more iPhones 6/7 devices were produced than those older specific Android models, so more of them lingering on is expected. And my personal phone is a Moto G Stylus from 2020 that just won't stop working (I kind of want a new phone at this point, as its getting bit slow at the god-awful web pages some web devs do, but it works well enough that I can't bring myself to spend cash money on it), so I have not experienced cheaper phones lasting less time.

 

[LordVile95]

My wife needed a new phone earlier this year (she cracked the screen on her old one) got her a 2024 Motorola G Stylus that was on sale for $190. And its great. Everything runs well (granted she uses it for basic message, web browsing, some pictures, and her fifty bajillion alarms and calendar reminders to keep herself on task lol), the full HD OLED screen is really nice, still has SD card slot & headphone jack, camera is adequate. She has had no complaints aside from the software working a bit differently than the Samsung she had earlier. Unless you game or are a heavy into phone photography I don't see any point in paying more than that.

How much would a used phone be though? Or just a screen replacement

 

[Dreadcthulhu]

How much would a used phone be though? Or just a screen replacement

Not sure on used phone, my wife would not want to handle a device somebody else was using. Replacement screen on her old phone would have been like $40, but then I would have to do the delicate fiddly work of replacing it, so we decided it was not worth the trouble.

 

[LordVile95]

Not sure on used phone, my wife would not want to handle a device somebody else was using. Replacement screen on her old phone would have been like $40, but then I would have to do the delicate fiddly work of replacing it, so we decided it was not worth the trouble.

Repair shops don’t exist?

You can get a flagship from a few years ago for under 300 or something like a S23 FE with a warranty, if you’re that concerned you can isopropyl it to death

 

[Hexic]

Repair shops don’t exist?

You can get a flagship from a few years ago for under 300 or something like a S23 FE with a warranty, if you’re that concerned you can isopropyl it to death

Granted, this was probably 8 years ago, but the average repair shop price in roughly 2018ish around me was $125-200 for a full screen replacement, and I’m fairly sure that included the panel below as well.

For a $300 phone, I could honestly see the customer going either way based off of this pricing. And it is probably worse now… or my area was extremely expensive in 2018. One of the two.

 

[Theinsanegamer]

You might have some selection bias there; far more iPhones 6/7 devices were produced than those older specific Android models, so more of them lingering on is expected. And my personal phone is a Moto G Stylus from 2020 that just won't stop working (I kind of want a new phone at this point, as its getting bit slow at the god-awful web pages some web devs do, but it works well enough that I can't bring myself to spend cash money on it), so I have not experienced cheaper phones lasting less time.

Crying bias based on mass production units certainly is a defense. Not a good one though.

The galaxy s series are the best selling phones globally, and at the time I believe we're outselling iphones. The g series have also always been motos mass market models.

I also had a moto g 2020. Last one I owned, since after 3 years the battery was going and, more importantly, it was on it last security update. Newer moto gs had lower rez screens, mono speakers, weaker processors, and were more expensive.

Your moto g is three years out on security. That is no bueno for me. Now an iPhone from 2020? Still getting updates. A modern pixel or Samsung s series would be too.

Cost wise, there's no difference in replacing a $300 phone every 3 years or a $800 phone every 8.

 

[Dreadcthulhu]

Repair shops don’t exist?

You can get a flagship from a few years ago for under 300 or something like a S23 FE with a warranty, if you’re that concerned you can isopropyl it to death

My wife barely lets me touch her phone; absolutely no way she would let some random guy at a repair shop fiddle with it. And the cost of the repair shop would have been barely cheaper than just buying that new cheap phone. Plus she still uses the SD card and headphone jack (and so do I for that matter), so the S23 Fe, and pretty much every other high end phone is a no-go for her anyways due to missing basic hardware features. Seriously, saying we should have paid more for a used phone that is missing basic features, when I got her a brand new device that does everything she needs very well is just silly.

 

[Dreadcthulhu]

Your moto g is three years out on security. That is no bueno for me. Now an iPhone from 2020? Still getting updates. A modern pixel or Samsung s series would be too.

Cost wise, there's no difference in replacing a $300 phone every 3 years or a $800 phone every 8.

Yeah, but a $200 phone every 5 or 6 years is cheaper than an $800 phone every 8 (my wife's previous phone was from 2021; mine is from 2020 and still working. We both paid ~$200 then, and her new one was $190 as I said). And I would honestly rather get some of the hardware features cheap phones have than security updates. I have never had security issue, but use the sd card slot & headphone jack every day. Seriously, are you like a sales rep for Apple or Samsung?

 

[Theinsanegamer]

Yeah, but a $200 phone every 5 or 6 years is cheaper than an $800 phone every 8 (my wife's previous phone was from 2021; mine is from 2020 and still working. We both paid ~$200 then, and her new one was $190 as I said). And I would honestly rather get some of the hardware features cheap phones have than security updates. I have never had security issue, but use the sd card slot & headphone jack every day. Seriously, are you like a sales rep for Apple or Samsung?

No, I am someone who takes security seriously and would prefer not to broadcast information to anyone who can use security exploits.

Many would consider buying a phone with only 2 years of security updates to be "very silly". But perhaps we will have to wait for carriers to ban vulnerable devices to get that idea through people's heads.

Exactly how much data are you hoarding on a phone to need a SD card every day? I use a headphone jack too, you can easily find USB c adapters and even dual head adapters if you wish to charge at the same time.

 

[Dreadcthulhu]

No, I am someone who takes security seriously and would prefer not to broadcast information to anyone who can use security exploits.

Many would consider buying a phone with only 2 years of security updates to be "very silly". But perhaps we will have to wait for carriers to ban vulnerable devices to get that idea through people's heads.

Exactly how much data are you hoarding on a phone to need a SD card every day? I use a headphone jack too, you can easily find USB c adapters and even dual head adapters if you wish to charge at the same time.

Sorry, but until I actually see someone in the real world have a security issue due to lack of updates its not something I am going to consider important. Seriously, I am the tech guy for a lot of friends and family using all sorts of oddball stuff, and literally the only time its been an issue is from kids downloading .apks from random website. People breaking their phones, and me be able to extract the SD card to save their pictures (not all of them trust cloud storage) is something I have ran into far more often. And dongles are just obnoxious.

Anyways, I think its obvious that we have very different priorities in what we want out of a phone, and are not likely to find any sort of agreement here. Have fun with your dongles.

 

[LordVile95]

My wife barely lets me touch her phone; absolutely no way she would let some random guy at a repair shop fiddle with it. And the cost of the repair shop would have been barely cheaper than just buying that new cheap phone. Plus she still uses the SD card and headphone jack (and so do I for that matter), so the S23 Fe, and pretty much every other high end phone is a no-go for her anyways due to missing basic hardware features. Seriously, saying we should have paid more for a used phone that is missing basic features, when I got her a brand new device that does everything she needs very well is just silly.

So I guess you never MOT your car and repair every fault on it too?

I would say an SD card is effectively useless now considering they’re just not fast enough for most things

 

[Axeia]

Don’t really get budget smartphones. They’re just fast tracked ewaste

tbf, this $400-500 price from the article is imo well into the midrange class rather than 'budget'.

In my experience
<$160 = eWaste
$160-400 if you're willing to accept some compromises on speed/camera quality you can get stuff with good build quality, quality tends to go up quite as you spend a little more
$400-800 Plenty good for 95% of people
$800+ You're either wasting money or you'd better really appreciate those cameras or be running or heavy software (professional or gaming).
Or... be one of those people that likes a folding phone so much you can accept all the downsides to one.

The eWaste has some limited use if you use it for music festivals and spend the night in a tent where it might get damaged/stolen etc - but a used phone keeping your old one around fulfills the same role whilst being a better experience.

--

I still got no complaints about my Xiaomi Mi Mix 2S which was a high end midranger in... 2018. (Did have to resort to third party firmware to stay up to date software wise and the battery has been replaced once)

 

[hahahanoobs]

Sucks to be the consumer that won't downgrade.

 

[OortCloud]

Ruining the Internet, Ruining the environment, Runing social cohesion and Ruining entire tech sectors. For what?
Sh1t search results, crap bots taking over peoples jobs, techbro a55holes getting very rich at decent peoples expense, whats left of the Internet littered with petabytes of pointless slop and inanity.