China export ban for chipmaking machines extends to Netherlands and Japan

[Alfonso Maruccia]

Why it matters: After USA-based manufacturers, Dutch and Japanese companies are now preparing a harsher ban on technology exports to China. The Asian country won't have access to any of the machinery needed to make high-performance microchips.

It seems China will soon be unable to manufacture its own advanced microchips. The US government has already imposed an export ban on KLA Corp, Lam Research Corp and Applied Materials, and now it's time for Netherlands and Japan to embrace Washington's decision to completely cut off Beijing from the international technology market for chipmaking machines.

According to people familiar with the matter, in the coming weeks there will be a new announcement coming from Amsterdam and Tokyo: the two capitals will join Washington to extend control over the export of advanced chipmaking devices to China, a move which would spell doom for Beijing's ambitions for a self-made technology future.

In October, the US Department sent specific orders to KLA Corp, Lam Research Corp and Applied Materials Inc., demanding a stop to the export of equipment needed to make semiconductor components with sub-14 nanometer processes to China. If confirmed, the new decisions would add ASML Holding NV and Tokyo Electron Ltd. to the growing list of companies deprived of the ability to do business in the country.

A total export ban imposed on ASML Holding would be especially devastating to China's ambitions, as the Veldhoven-based company is specialized in photolithography machines which are used to produce the most advanced computer chips available today. The Dutch corporation is currently the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) photolithography machines in the world, and it is the most highly valued European tech company with a market capitalization or about $200 billion.

According to Stacy Rasgon, a Sanford C. Bernstein analyst, with the latest export bans in action, "there's no way China can build a leading-edge industry on their own." "No chance," Rasgon remarked. For the time being, no official statements regarding the rumors about the bans are coming from the Dutch and Japanese governments.

It is known, however, that Dutch officials were already planning new export restrictions for high-tech technology to China; the Japanese government agreed to similar restrictions and wanted to act in concert, the rumors say. In November, US government officials were in the Netherlands to discuss a potential export ban, while Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo discussed the same topic with the head of Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan Yasutoshi Nishimura via teleconference just this past week.

Permalink to story.

https://www.techspot.com/news/96946-china-export-ban-chipmaking-machines-extends-netherlands-japan.html

 

[yRaz]

I don't think people understand the grasp ASML has on the EUV market. Current EUV tech started at ASML in the 80's, there are people who worked their entire carriers on it before the first machine was sold. While all companies have to look years in the future to be successful, ASML has been a company that looks several decades into the future and literally build inter-generational products. Not generations between nodes, generations of entire populations.

ASML would not have been able build their lithography machines without the help of Carl Ziess optics who literally build mirrors on to an atomic scale. It's been said that the mirrors in EUV machines are built to such tight tolerances that if you scaled one up to the size of the US the biggest deviation would be smaller than the thickness of a human hair.

Before China could hope to build their first EUV machine they'd first have to develop mirrors. I don't think it is a far stretch at all to say that if China threw every resource they had at it right now it would be atleast 20 years before their first prototype.

 

[dangh]

I don't think people understand the grasp ASML has on the EUV market.

What I do not understand is why US government have grasp on Dutch company...

 

[yRaz]

What I do not understand is why US government have grasp on Dutch company...

Well there are two possible answers to that and I don't think I agree with either of them. There is the conspiracy argument, which I will not entertain, and there is the argument that as a member of the European union(I'm using member loosely) they agreed to be more of a 'state' than a 'nation' and have to follow EU regulations. With Russia grasping at the EU's throat and China possible being the biggest danger the world has seen since the fall of Nazi Germany, it is likely more appealing to Follow the EU's lead and side with the US than potentially be left alone.

 

[Theinsanegamer]

Well there are two possible answers to that and I don't think I agree with either of them. There is the conspiracy argument, which I will not entertain, and there is the argument that as a member of the European union(I'm using member loosely) they agreed to be more of a 'state' than a 'nation' and have to follow EU regulations. With Russia grasping at the EU's throat and China possible being the biggest danger the world has seen since the fall of Nazi Germany, it is likely more appealing to Follow the EU's lead and side with the US than potentially be left alone.

Option 3: its just good business, as now they can continue to charge *premiums* for access to their western exclusive tech, and the west will continue to pay said premiums.

 

[yRaz]

Option 3: its just good business, as now they can continue to charge *premiums* for access to their western exclusive tech, and the west will continue to pay said premiums.

The west will certainly be buying lots of EUV machines with new fabs opening up in Arizona, Colorado, Ohio and West Virginia.

 

[Kam7r]

All of this is useless, you'll just make China totally independant for their semiconductors industry, because those bans will not stop them , it will only delay them a little at best... they'll just make the lithography machinery by themselves... determination and nearly infinite amount of money can do a lot in this world... even more when you are a dictatorship

 

[Theinsanegamer]

What I do not understand is why US government have grasp on Dutch company...

For the same reason the US has a grasp on so much of Europe's economy.

After WWII it was decides that America's navy would serve as a global anti piracy measure, as oceanic shipping continued to grow in scale and importance, which continues even today. Furthermore, Europe was and still is dependent on the US for defense, even will all the hot air they blow about funding NATO America is still its economic and supply foundation. And since the US is moving towards cutting off china, and many of the biggest tech firms for high end chips are American, what they say goes, because without American support ASML's market dries up very fast. There's also a legacy of investment, the US has put astronomical amounts of cash into transistor node tech over the last 50+ years, and is still a major investor in ASML's current tech.

Going against the US' policy is economic sudoku. Whether that is good or bad is a totally different matter, but that is the position much of the west is in.

 

[yRaz]

All of this is useless, you'll just make China totally independant for their semiconductors industry, because those bans will not stop them , it will only delay them a little at best... they'll just make the lithography machinery by themselves... determination and nearly infinite amount of money can do a lot in this world... even more when you are a dictatorship

As I said in a previous post, EUV tech is something that a collaboration of companies and nations took trillions of dollars and decades to make. China is decades away from a prototype, there is a reason ASML is the only one in the world with a functioning EUV machine

 

[Majestic12]

I have been saying for YEARS that we need to stop production of semiconductors, SOCs, PCB's and other crucial electrical circuits and components in ASIA. We are giving away our own technologies and making them a strong opponent. Does anyone think they don't copy America's technology? CHINA should not be trusted. The Unites States should be closing its borders to outside manufacturing of tech and move manufacturing back within its own borders. Just about EVERYTHING today is stamped "Made in China" and we wonder why they are a superpower? We are supplying them with everything they need - the money, the gun and the ammunition.

 

[Theinsanegamer]

All of this is useless, you'll just make China totally independant for their semiconductors industry, because those bans will not stop them , it will only delay them a little at best... they'll just make the lithography machinery by themselves... determination and nearly infinite amount of money can do a lot in this world... even more when you are a dictatorship

That doesnt work for complicated technology or systems.

Much like aircraft carriers, despite all their efforts the chinese still cant figure out how to launch without a ramp (LOL) and have 0 clue as to how hard a carrier is to run. The kind of lessons you only get from trial and error, which isnt possible in CCP land where bad results get you gulagd.

Making tech like ASML is extremely complicated, up there with experimental medical procedures and long range manned space flight.

 

[emmzo]

That doesnt work for complicated technology or systems.

Much like aircraft carriers, despite all their efforts the chinese still cant figure out how to launch without a ramp (LOL) and have 0 clue as to how hard a carrier is to run. The kind of lessons you only get from trial and error, which isnt possible in CCP land where bad results get you gulagd.

Making tech like ASML is extremely complicated, up there with experimental medical procedures and long range manned space flight.

I agree, except for the statement that "bad results gets you gulaged". It's not like this at all, it's just decades of advancements of Western tech. That's why it is important to stay that way. If given the opportunity, China will catch up, it's not like we're smarter, it only takes time.

 

[Tantor]

That doesnt work for complicated technology or systems.

Much like aircraft carriers, despite all their efforts the chinese still cant figure out how to launch without a ramp (LOL) and have 0 clue as to how hard a carrier is to run. The kind of lessons you only get from trial and error, which isnt possible in CCP land where bad results get you gulagd.

Making tech like ASML is extremely complicated, up there with experimental medical procedures and long range manned space flight.

Don't underestimate the Chinese.

China's new super aircraft carrier uses a highly advanced electromagnetic launch system.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/inter...ced-catapult-system-emals/article65556194.ece

I have worked on US carrier launch systems. They have no unusual or particularly difficult technology. For crying out loud, it's just a steam driven catapult, designed in the 1960's with slide rules. The nuclear propulsion systems are far more sophisticated. But even those were designed using slide rules. Just like the 1960's Apollo moon program, the Boeing 747, the US freeway systems, nuclear attack subs.

The Chinese are extremely good at managing large scale operations. Here's an article on a Chinese company that built a 57 story skyscraper in 19 days.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-firm-erects-57-storey-skyscraper-in-19-days

Sun Tzu said that the single greatest mistake a military commander can make is to underestimate the opponent.

 

[kiwigraeme]

Without doing any checking - this is an easy ban for ASML - as already at max capacity.
They do not just sell the machines - they sell the expertise to bed it it - which can take months.
So there is only so much engineering wetware.

This is common in high tech machinery - you buy some Swedish, German, Swiss high precision thingy - the package will include setup, on-going support etc
Maybe fun for young engineers - but older ones with family will want good money to be in some far off country for a couple of months. ( probably fly home as much as want while there - for some top ones )

 

[Tantor]

I have been saying for YEARS that we need to stop production of semiconductors, SOCs, PCB's and other crucial electrical circuits and components in ASIA. We are giving away our own technologies and making them a strong opponent. Does anyone think they don't copy America's technology? CHINA should not be trusted. The Unites States should be closing its borders to outside manufacturing of tech and move manufacturing back within its own borders. Just about EVERYTHING today is stamped "Made in China" and we wonder why they are a superpower? We are supplying them with everything they need - the money, the gun and the ammunition.

Exactly. That was the fundamental argument for MAGA. Bring industry back to the US.

 

[Tantor]

I agree, except for the statement that "bad results gets you gulaged". It's not like this at all, it's just decades of advancements of Western tech. That's why it is important to stay that way. If given the opportunity, China will catch up, it's not like we're smarter, it only takes time.

True. The infamous soviet gulags were used for political prisoners. Not to punish bad results. Communist governments are notorious for bad tech, such as Lysenko's genetic theories. Fascism, on the other hand, is famous for producing very high tech. That's because they really do care about results.

China was communist but has since transitioned into strong nationalism, I.e. fascism. The West is in a reverse process, from fascism to communism.

 

[AlaskaGuy]

What I do not understand is why US government have grasp on Dutch company...

Maybe because the US pays for the Netherlands defense would be my guess.

 

[East Obsever]

Direct export might not possible, but still possible through 3rd / 4th party. as always, if you willing to spend billions, there is always a way around, and there is always the right people who are keen to take the money to do the job.

 

[Pensiveclown]

What I do not understand is why US government have grasp on Dutch company...

Murica gets what murica wants because murica has a big military.

I have been saying for YEARS that we need to stop production of semiconductors, SOCs, PCB's and other crucial electrical circuits and components in ASIA. We are giving away our own technologies and making them a strong opponent. Does anyone think they don't copy America's technology? CHINA should not be trusted. The Unites States should be closing its borders to outside manufacturing of tech and move manufacturing back within its own borders. Just about EVERYTHING today is stamped "Made in China" and we wonder why they are a superpower? We are supplying them with everything they need - the money, the gun and the ammunition.

MURRRRRRRRRRICA!!! NATIONALISM FOREVER!!!
Have you ever considered that just because something was invented in a certain country doesn't mean that the country owns the intellectual rights to that invention? By your logic, it should be illegal to use lightbulbs outside of the US. The US didn't invent this tech. People who happened to live in the US did. There's a difference. Keep hating, but murica has done nothing for the world.

Don't underestimate the Chinese.

China's new super aircraft carrier uses a highly advanced electromagnetic launch system.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/inter...ced-catapult-system-emals/article65556194.ece

I have worked on US carrier launch systems. They have no unusual or particularly difficult technology. For crying out loud, it's just a steam driven catapult, designed in the 1960's with slide rules. The nuclear propulsion systems are far more sophisticated. But even those were designed using slide rules. Just like the 1960's Apollo moon program, the Boeing 747, the US freeway systems, nuclear attack subs.

The Chinese are extremely good at managing large scale operations. Here's an article on a Chinese company that built a 57 story skyscraper in 19 days.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-firm-erects-57-storey-skyscraper-in-19-days

Sun Tzu said that the single greatest mistake a military commander can make is to underestimate the opponent.

How about the mistake of declaring a country an opponent in the first place so you can scapegoat them and start a trade war. America is so power hungry that it can't accept another country being equal. Everyone has to be inferior!

True. The infamous soviet gulags were used for political prisoners. Not to punish bad results. Communist governments are notorious for bad tech, such as Lysenko's genetic theories. Fascism, on the other hand, is famous for producing very high tech. That's because they really do care about results.

China was communist but has since transitioned into strong nationalism, I.e. fascism. The West is in a reverse process, from fascism to communism.

China is more authcenter on the political compass. Fascist wouldn't be an accurate description. And the US is authright.

Exactly. That was the fundamental argument for MAGA. Bring industry back to the US.

...by attacking the economies of other countries. Bringing yourself up by pushing others down. Classic US.

 

[Majestic12]

MURRRRRRRRRRICA!!! NATIONALISM FOREVER!!!
Have you ever considered that just because something was invented in a certain country doesn't mean that the country owns the intellectual rights to that invention? By your logic, it should be illegal to use lightbulbs outside of the US. The US didn't invent this tech. People who happened to live in the US did. There's a difference. Keep hating, but murica has done nothing for the world.

I think you are reading more into this. I never made such statements. And by YOUR logic, that means the inventions of Nikola Tesla, who was a Serbian-American inventor who immigrated to America in 1884 and founded the basis for alternating current should be considered a Serbian technology. You use the term 'murica' in a defensive posture as if to wield it as a weapon but know that just because some people want to keep the economics and strength of our country doesn't automatically make us supporters of certain political doctrines. The only hate I sense is from your own rhetoric, friend.

 

[Pensiveclown]

I think you are reading more into this. I never made such statements. And by YOUR logic, that means the inventions of Nikola Tesla, who was a Serbian-American inventor who immigrated to America in 1884 and founded the basis for alternating current should be considered a Serbian technology. You use the term 'murica' in a defensive posture as if to wield it as a weapon but know that just because some people want to keep the economics and strength of our country doesn't automatically make us supporters of certain political doctrines. The only hate I sense is from your own rhetoric, friend.

1. "we are giving away OUR own technologies and making them a strong OPPONENT" - This shows that
a) You do believe that tech created in the US should only be manufactured in the US and heavily implying that the US government holds intellectual rights to it.
b) You intend on viewing large foreign countries that make their own chips as opponents instead of letting China be self sufficient without being constantly attacked by the US over making their own products. Maybe the US should stop seeing China as a rival. The US sees what it wants to see, though, so it sees a good scapegoat.
2. By my logic, it should be considered Tesla's invention, and no inventions should be accredited to specific nations. I was trying to show an example of the kind of justification you were using. Neither Serbia NOR America should hold any rights to the intellectual property. There aren't "American" inventions. This isn't "America's" technology. America doesn't own it. America didn't invent it. Specific people invented it. Not the country. China has the same rights to this intellectual property as any other nation.
3. I use the term murica to exemplify the ridiculous nationalism and selfishness of America. The idea that America can do no wrong, that America is beloved by the world (and all the countries it bombed into oblivion) is a fantasy. There's a difference between supporting the economics and strength of your own country and an obsessive desire to make sure that no other country can have the same things as America.
4. The idea that "CHINA" (all caps) "cannot be trusted" and is an "opponent" is an example of the proliferation of hateful ideas, while China simply wishes for economic cooperation with the US and a friendly, diplomatic relationship. Wouldn't it be for the best if the US and China were to establish a friendlier relationship and be more open to working together, as opposed to the US starting trade wars to tear down the economy of China under the pretense that it will somehow help the US with increasing manufacturing production. However, the US is not outfitted to meet its own demand, and blocking imports from another country is generally not a method by which countries successfully improve their economies. In fact, China can be an example of a nation that built an extremely strong economy by openly trading with other nations, and building good trade relationships with the world instead of supporting isolationist trade policies dedicated to eliminating the "competition" so that items can exclusively be produced in one nation, regardless of the capability of the US to meet the needs of consumers.

This took a while to type...

 

[AlaskaGuy]

Murica gets what murica wants because murica has a big military.

MURRRRRRRRRRICA!!! NATIONALISM FOREVER!!!
Have you ever considered that just because something was invented in a certain country doesn't mean that the country owns the intellectual rights to that invention? By your logic, it should be illegal to use lightbulbs outside of the US. The US didn't invent this tech. People who happened to live in the US did. There's a difference. Keep hating, but murica has done nothing for the world.

How about the mistake of declaring a country an opponent in the first place so you can scapegoat them and start a trade war. America is so power hungry that it can't accept another country being equal. Everyone has to be inferior!
China is more authcenter on the political compass. Fascist wouldn't be an accurate description. And the US is authright.

...by attacking the economies of other countries. Bringing yourself up by pushing others down. Classic US.

The US pays for the EU's defense. If not for the US the EU would be speaking Russian by now seeing how the EU doesn't have a real military. Similar to when the US had to bail Europe out of two world wars. If the US wants something from the EU then the US can ask for it or they can just take it. Same goes for Canada who has no real military because like the EU they refuse to pay for one. Enjoy your free medical.

 

[captaincranky]

Murica gets what murica wants because murica has a big military.

MURRRRRRRRRRICA!!! NATIONALISM FOREVER!!!
Have you ever considered that just because something was invented in a certain country doesn't mean that the country owns the intellectual rights to that invention? By your logic, it should be illegal to use lightbulbs outside of the US. The US didn't invent this tech. People who happened to live in the US did. There's a difference. Keep hating, but murica has done nothing for the world.

How about the mistake of declaring a country an opponent in the first place so you can scapegoat them and start a trade war. America is so power hungry that it can't accept another country being equal. Everyone has to be inferior!
China is more authcenter on the political compass. Fascist wouldn't be an accurate description. And the US is authright.

...by attacking the economies of other countries. Bringing yourself up by pushing others down. Classic US.

1. "we are giving away OUR own technologies and making them a strong OPPONENT" - This shows that
a) You do believe that tech created in the US should only be manufactured in the US and heavily implying that the US government holds intellectual rights to it.
b) You intend on viewing large foreign countries that make their own chips as opponents instead of letting China be self sufficient without being constantly attacked by the US over making their own products. Maybe the US should stop seeing China as a rival. The US sees what it wants to see, though, so it sees a good scapegoat.
2. By my logic, it should be considered Tesla's invention, and no inventions should be accredited to specific nations. I was trying to show an example of the kind of justification you were using. Neither Serbia NOR America should hold any rights to the intellectual property. There aren't "American" inventions. This isn't "America's" technology. America doesn't own it. America didn't invent it. Specific people invented it. Not the country. China has the same rights to this intellectual property as any other nation.
3. I use the term murica to exemplify the ridiculous nationalism and selfishness of America. The idea that America can do no wrong, that America is beloved by the world (and all the countries it bombed into oblivion) is a fantasy. There's a difference between supporting the economics and strength of your own country and an obsessive desire to make sure that no other country can have the same things as America.
4. The idea that "CHINA" (all caps) "cannot be trusted" and is an "opponent" is an example of the proliferation of hateful ideas, while China simply wishes for economic cooperation with the US and a friendly, diplomatic relationship. Wouldn't it be for the best if the US and China were to establish a friendlier relationship and be more open to working together, as opposed to the US starting trade wars to tear down the economy of China under the pretense that it will somehow help the US with increasing manufacturing production. However, the US is not outfitted to meet its own demand, and blocking imports from another country is generally not a method by which countries successfully improve their economies. In fact, China can be an example of a nation that built an extremely strong economy by openly trading with other nations, and building good trade relationships with the world instead of supporting isolationist trade policies dedicated to eliminating the "competition" so that items can exclusively be produced in one nation, regardless of the capability of the US to meet the needs of consumers.

This took a while to type...

You post with such fervor,such unbridled rage, disdain, contempt, bile, and vitriol, with a tinge of jealousy thrown in for good measure.

I can't help but wonder if it's personal, or state sponsored.

BTW, long strings of capital letters are against the rules. Surely you've read them right? It's considered "yelling", in print context.

I'm sure that there are radical, terrorist, and hate groups who would welcome your input, much more so than a humble group of computer geeks and gamers, such as are we.

And in the future try to skip the neologisms. They're hard for us "muricans" to understand.

It didn't take me long to type that.

 

[captaincranky]

Exactly. That was the fundamental argument for MAGA. Bring industry back to the US.

Yeah, and all the MAGAts and last administration succeeded in doing, was raising consumer prices via tariffs.

It took Joe Biden to at least get the ball rolling. IE: TSMC in the US. and the Chips act, am I right, or am I right left.

 

[captaincranky]

Sun Tzu said that the single greatest mistake a military commander can make is to underestimate the opponent.

I have a rain soaked, tattered, and cover-less copy, of the Art of War in the living room. I keep meaning to read it, to see if Sun Tzu says, "it's OK though, to sell your enemy the tools to make his weapons".