Google records its first negative free cash flow since going public as its AI spending explodes

midian182

Posts: 11,763   +179
Staff member
What just happened? In a perfect illustration of how much money companies are pouring into their AI investments, Google has just recorded its first negative free cash flow since it went public more than two decades ago. It comes as the tech giant said its capital expenditure is expected to reach $205 billion this year, up from previous guidance of $180 billion to $190 billion.

Google said its free cash flow – the cash it had remaining after paying for operations and investments – for the three months to the end of June was at negative $5.9 billion. The revelation, combined with the announcement that it would be spending even more money on AI hardware and infrastructure, sent the company's stock down 4% in after-hours trading.

It's not just this year that Google is planning on spending billions. Anat Ashkenazi, parent company Alphabet's chief financial officer, said capital expenditures will also increase significantly in 2027. Bloomberg expects the figure to reach $262 billion next year.

"We expect that free cash flow will remain under pressure driven by our investments in technical infrastructure, which enable us to capitalize on the AI opportunity and continue to drive attractive returns," Ashkenazi said.

Credit: App Economy Insights

Ashkenazi added that the company spent $45 billion in the second quarter, with 60% of the cost going towards servers and 40% being used for data centres.

Google isn't the only company facing this position; Tesla has also reported negative cash flow of $1.1 billion. It's the first time this has happened in more than two years as Elon Musk's company continues spending billions on AI. Vaibhav Taneja, Tesla's chief financial officer, said its capital spending could more than double this year to as much as $25 billion. Tesla stock also dropped by 4%.

Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are also expected to see their free cash flow turn negative next year.

Although the trillions being spent on AI are making the industry look increasingly like a bubble that's getting ever closer to bursting, Ashkenazi insists that AI demand still outpaces the investments being made.

"As long as we see these attractive opportunities to invest, we will continue to invest," she said.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai admitted that most users aren't yet experiencing many benefits from the obscene amount of money being spent on AI. "What I see with what you can do with frontier capabilities, there is still a lot of work left to do to translate that into experiences for our users. So that looks like extraordinary opportunities with extraordinary returns."

The rising cost of memory, which is ironically being driven by the AI craze, is contributing to these higher capital expenditures. But investors are becoming increasingly worried about all this money being spent for little return.

Big names within the industry are trying to calm fears. Nvidia's Jensen Huang believes agentic AI will cause hyperscalers' cash flow to grow, while Adata chairman Chen Li-bai thinks we shouldn't even be discussing the subject of an AI bubble until 2040 or even 2050.

It was reported yesterday that Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and other US tech giants are carrying a collective "hidden" debt of over $1.65 trillion, driven largely by massive spending on AI infrastructure.

Permalink to story:

 
Negative free cash flow just means the mountain of cash Google makes every day is going towards new servers instead of it's bank account.

It does NOT mean it is losing money or is unprofitable or in any way in trouble. It could be back to positive tomorrow by reducing data center expansion.

Even if the AI bubble pops it will just use the servers for other things. Google is the best positioned AI company.
 
We have reached the “enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world ten times over” phase of AI, except now it is data centers.

Nobody knows whether all this capacity will ever pay for itself. But every tech giant knows that if the others keep spending and it stops, it may become irrelevant. So they will keep shoveling billions into data centers and GPUs until someone wins, someone breaks, or the power grid collapses.
 
Negative free cash flow just means the mountain of cash Google makes every day is going towards new servers instead of it's bank account.

It does NOT mean it is losing money or is unprofitable or in any way in trouble. It could be back to positive tomorrow by reducing data center expansion.
How dare you use facts and logic to combat the yellow journalism being used to ensnare gullible readers. Have you no shame? In response to an article like this, you're supposed to simply mindlessly intone "the bubble is popping" and move on.
 
Last edited:
The narrative is the same every quarter, "we see great earning potential in 3 to 5 years time, so we continue doubling our capital expenditure each year". I've heard this like 3 or 4 years back from the likes of Open AI. But where is the promised potential earnings? Essentially, they are kicking the can down the road. When this blows and it will, the CEOs will be filthy rich as they work together to bump each other's share prices up. Even if the firm fails, it really doesn't matter to them.
 
The narrative is the same every quarter, "we see great earning potential in 3 to 5 years time, so we continue doubling our capital expenditure each year". I've heard this like 3 or 4 years back from the likes of Open AI. But where is the promised potential earnings?
OpenAI and Schlemiel Altman are the white elephant in the AI room: if I had to pick one AI firm for bankruptcy, it would be them. Meanwhile, I'm invested in three AI firms that are all already highly profitable, two of which are turning in ungodly 50%+ margins. Stop allowing biased journalists to form your opinions for you.
 
Oh cry me a river Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta! May the AI and data center bubble burst and the massive AI debts and the resulting devaluation of your billions in capitol investments consume you all faster than the hydrogen fueled flames did the Hindenburg.
 
We'll pay for an OpenAI bailout, but Google won't need the help.

That's why we want OpenAI to slowly fade away rather than crash. It's the best way to avoid literally paying for their mistakes.
If I were to make a guess, I think OpenAI will wither away in the next few years due to insufficient revenue, and the scraps that are left will eventually be absorbed by Microsoft/Copilot, which are already heavily involved with OpenAI today and are in a position similar to Google (tech giant that can subsidise their AI spending with their other products).
 
Oh cry me a river Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta! May the AI and data center bubble burst and the massive AI debts and the resulting devaluation of your billions in capitol investments (data centers) consume you all faster than the hydrogen fueled flames did the Hindenburg.
Google, MS, Amazon, and Meta all have quite profitable non-AI related businesses. Even if the AI/data center investment does a hard bubble burst they will be able to muddle through with a few bad quarters, but otherwise be just fine. Its the AI only companies like OpenAI that have nothing else going for them that have to worry about a hard bubble burst.
 
Back