Is the end in sight? Graphics card shipments predicted to increase 10% as mining demand...

midian182

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Staff member
Why it matters: Could we be seeing the first optimistic signs that the beleaguered graphics card market is on the road to recovery? It might not seem that way right now, but there are some positive indications of a turnaround, including expectations that GPU shipments will rise by 10% this year, along with less demand from miners.

DigiTimes Asia reports that Asus, MSI, Gigabyte, and ASRock all saw significant growth in their graphics card shipments last year, and they’re expected to increase a further 10% throughout 2022.

The usual demand from both enterprise and gaming industries, along with the rise in Covid-19 cases, component shortages, and logistical delays, are keeping graphics card prices high and availability low. However, shipments of cards are predicted to increase this year, and consumer demand is actually decreasing.

It won't last forever

It’s not that gamers aren’t desperate for the latest graphics cards. The slowing demand from consumers is due to Ethereum’s upcoming shift from a proof-of-work mechanism to proof-of-stake. Once that happens, we can expect less demand for GPUs from miners. Combined with increased shipments, we might start seeing cheaper graphics cards and more of them in stock.

DigiTimes Asia’s report comes after Nvidia's chief financial officer, Colette Kress, promised that the company will be able to increase the supply of its graphics cards to meet demand in the second half of this year. "We are also partnering with our supply chains to assist in our future capacity needs in the second half of... 2022," Kress said.

Notebook demand, however, isn’t expected to decline. DigiTimes Asia writes that Asus, Dell, HP, and Apple have all booked chip capacity for the next 1 to 2 years and expect laptop shipments to remain flat or increase 10% YoY in 2022.

We’re also expecting to see the release of Intel’s Arc Alchemist graphics cards in the next few months, hopefully in this first quarter, which should address some of the demand. Additionally, the RX 6500 XT that arrives on January 19 should be less appealing to miners as it features just 4GB of VRAM, and a recent report showed that card prices in Europe are no longer trending upwards.

Many aren’t expecting graphics card demand and supply to completely even out until 2023, but the second half of this year could be the first time in a while that buying a new GPU doesn’t require a loan or eBay.

Permalink to story.

 
Will mining demand lessen? In the last couple months there's been like 4 distinct mini "crashes" where all people started to cheer and declare that the bubble had finally bursted and then slowly over the course of a couple weeks, coins fully recovered and then some.

People and yes, this includes press, needs to stop playing this game and making the job of coin speculators easy for them: No it's not going to crash because Elon makes a snide remark or a single country hints at doing a one time action to contain bitcoin or eth. All this is doing with articles like this is encouraging enough people to sell so that the prices of coins are significantly lower and then for speculators to come in and buy even more coins, inflating the price again and not really losing anything at all in the process.

Stop calling it a crash or even a slow down unless you see something like Bitcoin or Eht suddenly drop 50 or 60% in value over night. It's not a crash unless the rich a-holes start jumping off buildings. It's a minor deep of 1 to 5% at the most that enables it to fluctuate back after a short period: it's just endless pumping and dumping schemes and you guys all play right along with them.

No Eth won't crash for all of 2022, no you won't be able to buy any GPU that's Eth capable (Even if not the "best" ROI or hash rate) at any price under double to triple whatever Nvidia or AMD say it should cost.

React to that new reality accordingly (Hint: start playing indie and older games instead of hoping and waiting)
 
A 10% increase in shipments is nothing compared to the demand, just a drop in an ocean of demand. it will take years before we see prices drop significantly. unfortunately, we just have to accept that this is the new normal.
 
It`s probably what the above posters have said, more speculation, however ETH is doing pretty bad right now, along with the whole crypto market and you can see the desperation from the increased number of paid articles telling people not to panic, ETH is going to be 10000 bucks this year and so on. But, if some miracle happens and it drops below 1k, then we will see a full on bloodbath for mining and the currently smug nVidia/AMD will beg for our money.
 
With ethereum dying, the end of this turd show is coming. Market will be flooded with used cards over night and prices will tank. Now if by some chance ethereum gpu mining continues then yeah...that would be an issue.
 
A 10% increase in shipments is nothing compared to the demand, just a drop in an ocean of demand. it will take years before we see prices drop significantly. unfortunately, we just have to accept that this is the new normal.
I think you're wrong on this one. When those millions of high end GPUs hit ebay, prices will drop. I bet by late summer we will be back to regular MSRP or close to it.
 
If GPU prices do take a dive (even if it's only a 10% drop) - that's good for gamers. Every bit helps. Hopefully things are on the downward slide in pricing. I know I would have loved to have originally purchased a 3070 or 6800 when they released. It would be nice to see inventory at retailers improve so you're not feeling like you have to race to be first in line at the local retailer or play the raffle game with newegg.

On the flip side, maybe it was good I was able to sell off my 3070Ti last week for the price I was able to sell it for. Easily paid the card off, plus put an extra $400 in my pocket.

I also told my brother to get his 5700XT up on ebay right away while folks are still looking to snag them up for around $900 a pop. Hopefully he'll sell it off sometime this week, then reimburse me for the 3060Ti I gave him and still pocket a good $300 himself.

I guess we see where it all goes from here.
 
Q321 GPUs shipped: 12.7 mil units +10% (1.27 mil units) = 13,97 mil units shipped.

That's not enough to resolve the situation since still abt 2.2 mil units less will be shipped, under these hypothetical figures, than the peak of 16.1 mil units shipped of 2017.

Youtuber Jayztwocents, an EVGA insider, has stated that there are still *millions* of ppl signed up on the EVGA RTX 3K GPU queue who haven't gotten their GPUs 16 months later, including me.
 
QUOTE
The slowing demand from consumers is due to Ethereum’s upcoming shift from a proof-of-work mechanism to proof-of-stake.
UNQUOTE

They will find Jimmy Hoffa first and Elvis will rise from the dead before ETH transitions to "Proof Of Stake"
 
The best move one can make is to buy a prebuilt right now.

I saw plenty of 3080Ti available recently, but no 3090 and very few low-end models.

The AMD "Red Devil" cards litter the shelves of microcenter - if you are willing to overpay on them.
 
Will mining demand lessen? In the last couple months there's been like 4 distinct mini "crashes" where all people started to cheer and declare that the bubble had finally bursted and then slowly over the course of a couple weeks, coins fully recovered and then some.

People and yes, this includes press, needs to stop playing this game and making the job of coin speculators easy for them: No it's not going to crash because Elon makes a snide remark or a single country hints at doing a one time action to contain bitcoin or eth. All this is doing with articles like this is encouraging enough people to sell so that the prices of coins are significantly lower and then for speculators to come in and buy even more coins, inflating the price again and not really losing anything at all in the process.

Stop calling it a crash or even a slow down unless you see something like Bitcoin or Eht suddenly drop 50 or 60% in value over night. It's not a crash unless the rich a-holes start jumping off buildings. It's a minor deep of 1 to 5% at the most that enables it to fluctuate back after a short period: it's just endless pumping and dumping schemes and you guys all play right along with them.

No Eth won't crash for all of 2022, no you won't be able to buy any GPU that's Eth capable (Even if not the "best" ROI or hash rate) at any price under double to triple whatever Nvidia or AMD say it should cost.

React to that new reality accordingly (Hint: start playing indie and older games instead of hoping and waiting)
People need to realize that miners aren't the problem. Scalpers are. Why is there a shortage of PS5's too? Because miners? Really?
 
People need to realize that miners aren't the problem. Scalpers are. Why is there a shortage of PS5's too? Because miners? Really?

There is no shortage of PS5, that is Miner propaganda.

Right now as we speak, PS5 is available from 53 different retailers in Athens, Greece, as we speak, for a mere 600 EUR.

Miners and the infinite demand they create by buying off cards at absurd, ridiculous prices, are the only ones to blame for this travesty we live in and they are also responsible for the fact that even the latest AMD "RX480's" now being launched as 6500XT, are gonna be sold for 340 EUR.

If miners weren't buying cards like mad left and right thus creating an artificial shortage of GPUs, entry cards wouldn't be sold at 200% MSRP.
 
I think you're wrong on this one. When those millions of high end GPUs hit ebay, prices will drop. I bet by late summer we will be back to regular MSRP or close to it.
Neah, that won't happen. There is always an alternative to ETH that can be used for mining. There are alternatives to alternatives.

Here are a few examples:
 
Scalpers can't stop the massive flood of used cards that will hit ebay soon.
Oh yes they can. Scalpers aren't excluded from eBay.

Btw fresh outta oven: "AMD suggests that DDR5 scalping might delay Ryzen 6000 desktop APU launch on AM5"

But but but miners. Yeah, no.
 
There is no shortage of PS5, that is Miner propaganda.

Right now as we speak, PS5 is available from 53 different retailers in Athens, Greece, as we speak, for a mere 600 EUR.

Miners and the infinite demand they create by buying off cards at absurd, ridiculous prices, are the only ones to blame for this travesty we live in and they are also responsible for the fact that even the latest AMD "RX480's" now being launched as 6500XT, are gonna be sold for 340 EUR.

If miners weren't buying cards like mad left and right thus creating an artificial shortage of GPUs, entry cards wouldn't be sold at 200% MSRP.
In October, November and December there were no PS5 in stock in Romania (most of 2021 was like this). Only this week we've seen some PS5 consoles in stock (most are limited) and the cheapest ones are at around 790 euro.

When you can't buy a console for xmas several months in advance then yeah... there was a huge shortage.
 
Oh yes they can. Scalpers aren't excluded from eBay.

Btw fresh outta oven: "AMD suggests that DDR5 scalping might delay Ryzen 6000 desktop APU launch on AM5"

But but but miners. Yeah, no.
Scalpers won't be able to buy up all the used GPUs coming.
Video cards and scalpers have always existed and it's never been this bad. Scalpers didn't just all the sudden go crazy on the GPU market for no reason.
The idea that mining is not a problem is a bit crazy. There are millions and millions of cards mining right now. If they had not compounded the problem of covid issues and scalpers we would not be in as bad of shape as we are. Mining has fed the scalpers.
All you have to do is google "gpu mining farm"...take a look. Trying to tell people mining isn't a problem is a bit odd.

83498_01_you-would-cream-your-pants-at-this-huge-gpu-crypto-mining-factory.jpg
 
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Will mining demand lessen? In the last couple months there's been like 4 distinct mini "crashes" where all people started to cheer and declare that the bubble had finally bursted and then slowly over the course of a couple weeks, coins fully recovered and then some.

People and yes, this includes press, needs to stop playing this game and making the job of coin speculators easy for them: No it's not going to crash because Elon makes a snide remark or a single country hints at doing a one time action to contain bitcoin or eth. All this is doing with articles like this is encouraging enough people to sell so that the prices of coins are significantly lower and then for speculators to come in and buy even more coins, inflating the price again and not really losing anything at all in the process.

Stop calling it a crash or even a slow down unless you see something like Bitcoin or Eht suddenly drop 50 or 60% in value over night. It's not a crash unless the rich a-holes start jumping off buildings. It's a minor deep of 1 to 5% at the most that enables it to fluctuate back after a short period: it's just endless pumping and dumping schemes and you guys all play right along with them.

No Eth won't crash for all of 2022, no you won't be able to buy any GPU that's Eth capable (Even if not the "best" ROI or hash rate) at any price under double to triple whatever Nvidia or AMD say it should cost.

React to that new reality accordingly (Hint: start playing indie and older games instead of hoping and waiting)
I found this YouTube claiming same logic.
 
QUOTE
The slowing demand from consumers is due to Ethereum’s upcoming shift from a proof-of-work mechanism to proof-of-stake.
UNQUOTE

They will find Jimmy Hoffa first and Elvis will rise from the dead before ETH transitions to "Proof Of Stake"
Elvis is dead? WTH we just celebrated his birthday Saturday 🙂
 
Oh yes they can. Scalpers aren't excluded from eBay.

Btw fresh outta oven: "AMD suggests that DDR5 scalping might delay Ryzen 6000 desktop APU launch on AM5"

But but but miners. Yeah, no.
I mean that’s blatant bullshit from AMD right there. They don’t even make DDR5. If AMD have said this, it sounds like they are struggling to hit deadlines with Ryzen 6000 and some exec has come up with this as an excuse to tell the press.
 
I mean that’s blatant bullshit from AMD right there. They don’t even make DDR5. If AMD have said this, it sounds like they are struggling to hit deadlines with Ryzen 6000 and some exec has come up with this as an excuse to tell the press.
So, push out product that can't be used due to extreme lack of availability outside of AMD's control?

You'd be very hard pressed to find DDR5 right now, not as hard as a decently priced GPU, but doesn't mean it's easy to obtain right now:
  1. * Newegg sells it in bundles only and/or their shuffle.
  2. * BestBuy shows no stock online.
  3. * MicroCenter shows only available for purchase in person and has a very limited quantity.
  4. * B&H Photo shows DDR5 as not yet available, coming soon.

If AMD feels they're better off holding out until stock becomes more reliable that may be a good choice considering how abysmal the inventory of DDR5 currently is.

Or, maybe as you say, they are behind, but even if that is the case it doesn't change the fact that DDR5 is very hard to come by right now.
 
So, push out product that can't be used due to extreme lack of availability outside of AMD's control?

You'd be very hard pressed to find DDR5 right now, not as hard as a decently priced GPU, but doesn't mean it's easy to obtain right now:
  1. * Newegg sells it in bundles only and/or their shuffle.
  2. * BestBuy shows no stock online.
  3. * MicroCenter shows only available for purchase in person and has a very limited quantity.
  4. * B&H Photo shows DDR5 as not yet available, coming soon.

If AMD feels they're better off holding out until stock becomes more reliable that may be a good choice considering how abysmal the inventory of DDR5 currently is.

Or, maybe as you say, they are behind, but even if that is the case it doesn't change the fact that DDR5 is very hard to come by right now.
Intel launched their DDR5 stuff and it’s selling at a premium. There are enthusiasts out there who will pay to have to the latest and greatest. Why wouldn’t AMD want a part of this? On top of this AMD are currently behind Intel on graphs in reviews. AMD are currently under a lot of pressure from shareholders to address the competition which currently has an upper hand over AMD.

On top of this nobody benefits from AMD withholding Ryzen 6000. The people who don’t want to pay the elevated DDR5 pricing weren’t going to buy it anyway and the enthusiasts will be upset because they can’t get those faster Ryzen 6000 parts.

It’s such a blatant “wel tell the shareholders this excuse” type of crap. DDR5 pricing is completely out of AMDs control.
 
Intel launched their DDR5 stuff and it’s selling at a premium. There are enthusiasts out there who will pay to have to the latest and greatest. Why wouldn’t AMD want a part of this? On top of this AMD are currently behind Intel on graphs in reviews. AMD are currently under a lot of pressure from shareholders to address the competition which currently has an upper hand over AMD.

On top of this nobody benefits from AMD withholding Ryzen 6000. The people who don’t want to pay the elevated DDR5 pricing weren’t going to buy it anyway and the enthusiasts will be upset because they can’t get those faster Ryzen 6000 parts.

It’s such a blatant “wel tell the shareholders this excuse” type of crap. DDR5 pricing is completely out of AMDs control.
Well, it's good we have someone like you to speak for the shareholders then, isn't it?

Perhaps AMD is waiting for levels to improve for DDR5 or perhaps they're waiting for DDR5 to mature more. Either way, DDR5 isn't that easy to come by right now and claiming people will pay a premium for the latest and greatest.....There is a difference from paying a premium for new hardware from a retailer than paying jacked up prices from a scalper.

You have to remember that Intel does offer use of their new CPUs with DDR4 and DDR5. Not all their new CPUs are being paired up with DDR5 and right now the difference between the performance that DDR5 offers over DDR4 isn't very impressive.

Or perhaps the guy that invented a device to allow the use of DDR4 memory for DDR5 only motherboards.....seems odd to design such a niche piece of equipment to fulfill a need that you seem to think is easy to fill with what's available out there for DDR5, just because someone might pay a premium.
 
Well, it's good we have someone like you to speak for the shareholders then, isn't it?

Perhaps AMD is waiting for levels to improve for DDR5 or perhaps they're waiting for DDR5 to mature more. Either way, DDR5 isn't that easy to come by right now and claiming people will pay a premium for the latest and greatest.....There is a difference from paying a premium for new hardware from a retailer than paying jacked up prices from a scalper.

You have to remember that Intel does offer use of their new CPUs with DDR4 and DDR5. Not all their new CPUs are being paired up with DDR5 and right now the difference between the performance that DDR5 offers over DDR4 isn't very impressive.

Or perhaps the guy that invented a device to allow the use of DDR4 memory for DDR5 only motherboards.....seems odd to design such a niche piece of equipment to fulfill a need that you seem to think is easy to fill with what's available out there for DDR5, just because someone might pay a premium.
You seem agitated that I called AMDs blatant lie out. Why? Are you AMDs guard dog? I feel sorry for you if you genuinely believe AMD would withhold a product from the market because of availability of DDR5 that they don’t control. Withholding their product will not help anyone. If this is actually what they are claiming then it’s overwhelmingly obvious that they are facing delays on Zen4, most likely related to supply chain or capacity.
 
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