Meta stock tumbles on massive tax charge and ballooning AI costs

midian182

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What just happened? Despite the associated concerns, Meta is increasing its AI spending. After announcing financial results that were heavily impacted by a massive tax bill, the company said its AI infrastructure spending will continue to rise and capital expenditure in 2026 will be "notably larger" than in 2025.

Meta just reported $51.24 billion in quarterly revenue, up 26% YoY and beating both Wall Street's and its own expectations for Q3. But its earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05 was far below Wall Street's expected $6.70.

The drop in EPS was due to a one-time non-cash income tax charge of $15.93 billion. Without that expense, EPA would have been $7.25.

With companies facing more questions over the enormous amount of money being spent on AI, Meta admitted that its full-year total expenses would be between $116-118 billion, increasing the lower end of the estimate from the previous $114 million. Meanwhile, predicted capital expenditure for the year has increased from $66-72 billion to $70-72 billion.

Chief financial officer Susan Li said in an earnings call that Meta needed to "invest aggressively" in 2026 to meet its computational needs. Li also said that total expenses are expected to grow at a significantly faster percentage next year, driven primarily by infrastructure costs.

The CFO also acknowledged that the millions it has spent on hiring AI talent will be the second-largest contributor to cost growth. In June, OpenAI boss Sam Altman said Meta tried to lure his employees into joining the firm using $100 million signing bonuses.

Investors are becoming increasingly concerned over the lack of near-term returns from the billions being spent on AI. Mark Zuckerberg tried to alleviate fears with the claim that larger investment in compute will "likely" be profitable, and that the research will lead to new capabilities that can be built into different products.

The Meta boss added that the infrastructure will be vital if AI superintelligence arrives soon. Zuckerberg said in July that AGI was "near," though he said the same thing in 2023.

Zuckerberg also said that in the very worst case, Meta will have pre-built capacity and absorb the depreciation costs.

"If it takes longer, then we'll use the extra compute to accelerate our core business, which continues to be able to profitably use much of the compute," Zuckerberg added.

There has been an increasing amount of talk about the AI boom being a bubble – Nvidia denies it, of course. With Microsoft and Alphabet joining Meta in ramping up AI spending, those fears are growing.

Meta this month announced that is laying off 600 people from its AI teams. Its shares dropped as much as 9% following its financial report.

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I think meta is more likely than most to create an AI that fills some type of niche. They have all those social networks and interactions to train it on.
 
Now that an iota of air has been let out of the bubble, will the bang be just as big?

More popcorn, please!
 
> $51.24 billion in quarterly revenue

I'd like to believe there's a bubble but you look at numbers like that and you're like Holy MFer
Accounting tricks. Where are they getting $51 billion in revenue from?

That is Meta's total revenue, not AI revenue. That is everything from Facebook and Instagram, ece ece ece.

More importantly:

"Meta admitted that its full-year total expenses would be between $116-118 billion. Meanwhile, predicted capital expenditure for the year has increased from $66-72 billion to $70-72 billion."

Just covering expenses takes over half of Meta's total revenue. Then you gotta take taxes and capex out of it and so on.

Those profit margins are...not great, to put it mildly. Meta is living paycheck to paycheck like most of their users.
 
"Zuckerberg also said that in the very worst case, Meta will have pre-built capacity and absorb the depreciation costs.

"If it takes longer, then we'll use the extra compute to accelerate our core business, which continues to be able to profitably use much of the compute," Zuckerberg added."


Uh, Zuck, I have to call complete bullshit on this. If you have the ability to "profitably use" extra compute for your core non-AI business, you would be already doing this.

Why are you leaving extra money on the table? Oh that's right, it's because you are a complete liar and that all the AI datacenter money is wasted if the bubble pops too early.
 
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