Study finds 20% revenue drop when Denuvo DRM is cracked soon after game launch

[zohaibahd]

A hot potato: PC gamers often label digital rights management systems like Denuvo as "consumer unfriendly" because they can lead to performance issues, punishing those who legitimately purchase the games. But a new study shows that for all its downsides, Denuvo actually does help shield game revenues from the scourge of piracy, at least initially.

A new study provides some compelling evidence that digital rights management (DRM) software like Denuvo can significantly curb the impact of piracy on game sales revenue. However, the protection is essentially just a stopgap measure to safeguard launch window sales.

The study, titled "Revenue effects of Denuvo digital rights management on PC video games," was published in the journal Entertainment Computing. It examines how the notoriously tough Denuvo anti-piracy tech can shield games from the full brunt of revenue losses due to illegal downloading and sharing during critical early sales periods.

The paper's author, William M. Volckmann II, used the randomness of cracking groups bypassing Denuvo to estimate its revenue protection effects.

The results suggest that when Denuvo gets cracked quickly after a game's launch, piracy causes around a 20% drop in total revenue compared to if the protections remained uncracked. If Denuvo can hold off pirates for at least 12 weeks, then there is essentially zero impact on sales from piracy during that initial three-month window.

On the whole, Volckmann calculated that Denuvo protected around 15% of the average total revenue across his dataset. These are quite sizeable figures that certainly justify publishers' willingness to integrate Denuvo, at least temporarily.

The study aligns with how major game companies actually utilize Denuvo in the real world. Top publishers like Ubisoft, EA, Square Enix, and others implement the DRM exclusively for a game's launch window, stripping it out months later once initial sales have been maximized.

As for how publishers decide if they need to use DRM, Volckmann noted that it depends on how rampant piracy is, whether DRM would survive for a "meaningful period" of time, and whether developers have "strong feelings" against it.

Meanwhile, on the pirates' side of things, Volckmann's research failed to identify reliable traits that could predict if a game would get cracked rapidly after release. Factors like popularity, pricing, genre, and gameplay mechanics seemed to have no bearing. As long as piracy groups showed interest in targeting a title, its likelihood of a swift crack appeared completely random.

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Study finds 20% revenue drop when Denuvo DRM is cracked soon after game launch

 

[The Talking Tech]

Good...keep DRM away from gaming.

 

[yRaz]

There are lies, dammed lies and then there are statistics.

I think a large part of piracy is anticonsumerism surrounding gaming these days. People don't want to pay $100+ for a game that is essentially different than what the reviewers got(looking at you, black flag) and it takes several weeks for gamers to see if the game actually is what the company is selling.

Then games are constantly released broken, who wants to pay for a broken game? 12 weeks? You mean 3 months after the game launches when it's finally playable?

I also want to see how they are able to get that 20% drop in sales. There isn't a way to create a control in this. It might be something like "20% of players are using pirated copies after 12 weeks" but there is no way to tell if those 20% would have bought the game if they couldn't pirate it.

 

[Squid Surprise]

And once again, there is no actual evidence that piracy decreases revenue - just inferences.

There is NO way to prove that a game “would have” earned a specific amount of money.

I’m not arguing that piracy is “ok” - it’s clearly theft and should be punished - but the main reason games (and movies, tv shows, etc) don’t make their forecast revenues is usually because they SUCK!

The good ones still make (or exceed) their projected revenues/profits.

 

[VemigoAmigo]

I don't buy games with Denuvo.

 

[Dimitriid]

So it's nobody going to point out the fundamental flaw? Here it is: You would need to compare games that *have* Denuvo to begin with to games that don't have it or are even DRM free (As rare as that is) To actually get a number.

All this study shows is that people hate Denuvo and would rather not deal with it. If the only way to get rid of it is to crack the game why purchase it at all whatsoever? If the same game was somehow offered both with Denuvo at launch and some other DRM-free version you might see the DRM free version have stronger sales than the Denuvo version whenever it actually gets and early crack or not.

Denuvo is the actual disease but this study (That I'm fairly sure was probably sponsored if not directly ordered by Denuvo themselves) tries to show it as a cure but its presupposing that DRM is necessary to ensure healthy sales numbers: that's already a fallacy.

 

[puckle]

When I was a lad, some would say, "perhaps if people didn't keep pirating games, they wouldn't cost so much."
Piracy (of big games at least) is a lot harder now, but the prices still rise. I suspect the real reason for this is that they don't have to compete with free any more...

 

[dirtyferret]

Just make all the games have online connections and F the criminals

 

[toooooot]

Revenue drops always as the days past. What does soon mean here? Days, weeks?
Did they compare 2 similarly popular games and the same time intervals?
Then also, why dont they find out how much revenue falls when there is denuvo in the game?

 

[Theinsanegamer]

So it's nobody going to point out the fundamental flaw? Here it is: You would need to compare games that *have* Denuvo to begin with to games that don't have it or are even DRM free (As rare as that is) To actually get a number.

All this study shows is that people hate Denuvo and would rather not deal with it. If the only way to get rid of it is to crack the game why purchase it at all whatsoever? If the same game was somehow offered both with Denuvo at launch and some other DRM-free version you might see the DRM free version have stronger sales than the Denuvo version whenever it actually gets and early crack or not.

Denuvo is the actual disease but this study (That I'm fairly sure was probably sponsored if not directly ordered by Denuvo themselves) tries to show it as a cure but its presupposing that DRM is necessary to ensure healthy sales numbers: that's already a fallacy.

And once again, there is no actual evidence that piracy decreases revenue - just inferences.

There is NO way to prove that a game “would have” earned a specific amount of money.

I’m not arguing that piracy is “ok” - it’s clearly theft and should be punished - but the main reason games (and movies, tv shows, etc) don’t make their forecast revenues is usually because they SUCK!

The good ones still make (or exceed) their projected revenues/profits.

Ironically, there is one case example: The Witcher. Had both a DRMed and DRM free release. The DRM free release sold over twice as much.

Womp womp. DRM deserves to go in the dustbin alongside "bachelors required, masters preferred" job applications and having to have your spouse present to get a credit card as ideas that were horrific wastes of time invented by oxygen thieves.

Just make all the games have online connections and F the criminals

It's always shocking to see consumers demand the most anti consumer BS imaginable. If Denuvo is getting shot int he foot, always online DRM is getting hit by a cannon shell from a battleship. WHY would you want this crap? All it does is hurt paying consumers.

Here's an idea: how about you make good games? Shocker, I know, but good games sell well, and bad games dont. Witcher 3 had no issue selling more on PC then either console despite having no DRM.

 

[dirtyferret]

WHY would you want this crap?

because it pisses off the criminals and I never had an issue with it. If you don't like it it, toughen up snowflake

 

[ferrellsl]

Title should be changed to "Studies find that 100% of gamers hate Denuvo" or "The Stats in this article are 100% BS".

 

[SkyGuyOne]

And once again, there is no actual evidence that piracy decreases revenue - just inferences.

There is NO way to prove that a game “would have” earned a specific amount of money.

I’m not arguing that piracy is “ok” - it’s clearly theft and should be punished - but the main reason games (and movies, tv shows, etc) don’t make their forecast revenues is usually because they SUCK!

The good ones still make (or exceed) their projected revenues/profits.

I agree that piracy isn't "ok", but by definition, making an unauthorized copy is not theft.

 

[Squid Surprise]

I agree that piracy isn't "ok", but by definition, making an unauthorized copy is not theft.

Yes… but downloading or otherwise ”acquiring” a copy that isn’t yours IS…
the morality of piracy can be dressed up any way you like - but in the end, it’s still theft - and criminal.

I’ve yet to see any evidence that piracy cuts into revenue… in fact, most studies (that aren’t published by the companies with an interest), find that piracy can often INCREASE revenues to to raising awareness.

 

[kiwigraeme]

Studios should just be pragmatic .
Release it with their crappy denuvo, and then remove it one month later
Then only mainly annoy those who want it day one no protection

Lots of older gamers with money, they don't need to , or want to pirate anymore, no matter they sailed the high seas in their youth. These older players probably not so concern to be first anyway.
Games that get updates all the time, mods, achievements etc are probably another incentive.
So the whole package is important and post game sales support

When you buy a AAA game you are buying an experience. Good companies realise this .

This applies to nearly all endeavours in life, small things employers do can make a big difference
I saw a lot of tour companies in my travels, even if I rarely used them, biggest mistake many made was cheaping out on food and drinks. you get tourists complaining about that , the floodgates open to other complaints. A surprise hot chocolate drink and cookie on a cold dawn hot air balloon excursion not mentioned will get a mood boost of 5 arbitrary points , and only cost a couple of bucks each for $200 sale

 

[Masuda]

What a fake study lol, do they even know how many games were cracked that have Denuvo? (0 games in 2024)
How do they even get a large enough sample size?
You would have to dig into completely different timetables to even have one and even then that dirties the entire study because revenue highly depends on the world's economy and the economy has been hit hard ever since Covid.
For instance, Harry Potter better took 5 whole months to crack and was a niche game all considering, people who wanted it, bought it within those first few months. But what other games besides that were even cracked in the last 2 years? There's a reason why it's hard to even find out...

 

[vicsrealms]

I don't sail the high seas, but the quickest way to ensure I don't buy your game is to put Denuvo on it. I'll wait for you to remove it, and wait till it goes on sale for under 50% for the inconvenience.

 

[SkyGuyOne]

Yes… but downloading or otherwise ”acquiring” a copy that isn’t yours IS…
the morality of piracy can be dressed up any way you like - but in the end, it’s still theft - and criminal.

I’ve yet to see any evidence that piracy cuts into revenue… in fact, most studies (that aren’t published by the companies with an interest), find that piracy can often INCREASE revenues to to raising awareness.

LOL - I'm not defending the act, but you are simply wrong. No it's not theft, yes it's against the law. I'll repeat, it's not theft, the owner hasn't be deprived of anything except a potential sale but they still have their copy of the game to keep making copies of and selling.

 

[BuckarooBonzaii]

I like this quote from Pirates of the Caribbean - Curse of the Black pearl:

"Perhaps on the rare occasion pursuing the right course demands an act of piracy, piracy itself can be the right course?" Weatherby Swann -Curse of the Black Pearl

 

[Squid Surprise]

LOL - I'm not defending the act, but you are simply wrong. No it's not theft, yes it's against the law. I'll repeat, it's not theft, the owner hasn't be deprived of anything except a potential sale but they still have their copy of the game to keep making copies of and selling.

Having stolen property still counts as theft… whether the original owner “suffers” is irrelevant.

 

[arrowflash]

When I was a lad, some would say, "perhaps if people didn't keep pirating games, they wouldn't cost so much."
Piracy (of big games at least) is a lot harder now, but the prices still rise. I suspect the real reason for this is that they don't have to compete with free any more...

Since the end of physical media, companies also don't have to compete with the used games market anymore.

Not only prices are rising, nowadays you see companies renting (at least Valve is making that clear now) 5+ year old, even 7 year old games at full price and never going on sales. This would be unthinkable in the era of physical media.

 

[ZedRM]

Something tells me that this study is less than honest. Don't really care though. I don't buy titles that have or have ever had Denuvo in them. Based on the comments presented earlier, seems I'm far from alone.

 

[ZedRM]

Just make all the games have online connections and F the criminals

What is this? Seriously?

It's always shocking to see consumers demand the most anti consumer BS imaginable. If Denuvo is getting shot int he foot, always online DRM is getting hit by a cannon shell from a battleship. WHY would you want this crap? All it does is hurt paying consumers.

Right? It's like people want to be treated with punishing disrespect.

 

[puckle]

because it pisses off the criminals and I never had an issue with it. If you don't like it it, toughen up snowflake

Yeah, having a system where they can just take away a game that you paid for when their licences run out, or they don't want to keep their servers running, is great.

Ironically, if you get it off the criminals, it's yours forever.

 

[Starfals]

Lol, every game is super broken in the first 1 year. You gotta be dumb to buy anything before at least 35 patches were applied to ANY modern game. Until Dawn just got out. You can't save your settings, it resets them every time!! That's not all. FSR 3 didn't work, frame gen didn't work...crazy stuttering... shader loading EVERY TIME you start the game... cutscenes were broken, characters were sliding thru the walls, sound was vanishing annnd a few others that l literally forgot. Anyways, at least that game has no DRM BS. Imagine having a horrible game, plus Denuvo that sometimes make games even more laggy.

In fact, I usually buy games 2-3 years after they are out cus of 3 reasons.
1 - games are fixed
2 - games are cheaper, like very cheap, none of that 80-90 bucks modern bs
3 - they might have DLC included to the base game for a really low price
4 (ok there is 4) - DRM is usually removed, who needs it after 3 years right? The main sales are the 1 year etc, right? So once thats gone, its time to buy a very cheap good game. Its better to play a completed game, full of DLC than a barebones game, that needs some expansion to finish the story.