TSMC says 2nm chips will enter production in 2025

[mongeese]

In brief: In its first quarter earnings call, TSMC reported that it was plowing ahead with the development of next generation process nodes. The semiconductor giant plans to put its first 3nm processes into production later this year and have 2nm ready to go by the end of 2025.

Bruce Lee, an analyst for Goldman Sachs, put the first and second questions of the call to TSMC CEO C. C. Wei. His first question was about inflation and the economy at large, to which Wei responded that TSMC was well-positioned, as the leading global foundry, to weather fluctuations in the market.

Lee then asked about the timeline for the 2nm node. "Our N2 development is on track," Wei said. "...we are confident that N2 will continue our technology leadership to support customer growth. And we still plan the production in 2025." He added that pre-production would start in 2024.

N2 is reported to be the first TSMC process to use GAA (gate all-around) transistors instead of FinFET (fin field-effect transistors). Samsung has already started using their version of GAA and Intel is scheduled to implement theirs in 2024. An analyst asked Wei about it, but he avoided answering.

TSMC's executives were more forthcoming about the imminent 3nm family. In the second half of this year, TSMC will put the N3 process into production. A year later, or possibly sooner, it will be ready to put the N3E process into production, which is an "enhanced performance, power, and yield" version of N3.

TSMC predicts that HPC (high-performance compute) will be its fastest-growing segment this year. It generated 41% of their revenue last quarter, just slightly more than smartphones did, which generated 40%. IoT and automotive trailed in third and fourth place, generating 8% and 5% of revenue, respectively.

The foundry's total revenue grew by 11.6% quarter on quarter to $17.6 billion, slightly above its guidance from February. It expects its second quarter revenue to be between $17.6 billion and $18.2 billion for now.

Image credit: Fritzchens Fritz

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https://www.techspot.com/news/94235-tsmc-2nm-chips-enter-production-2025.html

 

[noel24]

Meanwhile, most of the world still waiting for reasonably priced 7/8nm cards. Sorry, but $620 3060Ti (currently in Central Europe) doesn't count, especially at the time of raging food, fuel prices and credit interest rates.
Let's face It, PC upgades are dead for years to come for majority od consumers. That's why prices dropped some in recent weeks. Falling demand in some areas.

 

[Burty117]

Sorry, but $620 3060Ti (currently in Central Europe) doesn't count...

^^ This, it's the same here in the UK. It's mad how a XX60 series card is going for so much still.

Who are buying it at that price? I'm not poor but I'm also not stupid and just cannot buy a 3060Ti at these just ridiculous prices.

 

[winjer]

What's the point of having smaller process node, if so few can afford the chips.
They should focus more on production of current process nodes, to lower chip scarcity, than race into new nodes.

 

[Theinsanegamer]

What's the point of having smaller process node, if so few can afford the chips.
They should focus more on production of current process nodes, to lower chip scarcity, than race into new nodes.

There is no financial interest in doing so. Chip makes are rolling in dough.

Meanwhile, most of the world still waiting for reasonably priced 7/8nm cards. Sorry, but $620 3060Ti (currently in Central Europe) doesn't count, especially at the time of raging food, fuel prices and credit interest rates.
Let's face It, PC upgades are dead for years to come for majority od consumers. That's why prices dropped some in recent weeks. Falling demand in some areas.

Hey, welcome to hyperinflation, the latest conspiracy theory that totally isnt real guyz. Almost like doubling the amount of currency you have in circulation is a REALLY bad idea.....

It's only gonna get worse. My grocery bill goes up every 3-4 weeks, a few cents here, a few cents there. Gas prices are nuts, its only a matter of time until electricity goes out the window.

Remember: you will own nothing, and you will be happy.

 

[Lounds]

^^ This, it's the same here in the UK. It's mad how a XX60 series card is going for so much still.

Who are buying it at that price? I'm not poor but I'm also not stupid and just cannot buy a 3060Ti at these just ridiculous prices.

It's because the retailers bought so many at higher prices so they don't have the margins to lower the prices.

 

[Lounds]

So my issue with TSMC is the 'all eggs in one basket'. I know they want to make other fabs but let's be real China will try and invade Taiwan one day and at that point the supply on semiconductors will plummet and TSMC's share price will also drop.

 

[zamroni111]

Meanwhile, most of the world still waiting for reasonably priced 7/8nm cards. Sorry, but $620 3060Ti (currently in Central Europe) doesn't count, especially at the time of raging food, fuel prices and credit interest rates.
Let's face It, PC upgades are dead for years to come for majority od consumers. That's why prices dropped some in recent weeks. Falling demand in some areas.

Don't worry, amd and nvidia won't use this expensive euv process to make (low margin) desktop gpu for many years to come.

 

[zamroni111]

So my issue with TSMC is the 'all eggs in one basket'. I know they want to make other fabs but let's be real China will try and invade Taiwan one day and at that point the supply on semiconductors will plummet and TSMC's share price will also drop.

Due to such importance, usa will intervene I guess

 

[dualkelly]

There is no financial interest in doing so. Chip makes are rolling in dough.
Hey, welcome to hyperinflation, the latest conspiracy theory that totally isnt real guyz. Almost like doubling the amount of currency you have in circulation is a REALLY bad idea.....

It's only gonna get worse. My grocery bill goes up every 3-4 weeks, a few cents here, a few cents there. Gas prices are nuts, its only a matter of time until electricity goes out the window.

Remember: you will own nothing, and you will be happy.

sigh...just factually incorrect all the way around... smaller nodes mean more chips per wafer means high output... granted going from 3 to 2nm isnt going to increase much but it indeed will increase chip production.

 

[psycros]

sigh...just factually incorrect all the way around... smaller nodes mean more chips per wafer means high output... granted going from 3 to 2nm isnt going to increase much but it indeed will increase chip production.

And yet that's not what's happened with the last two reductions in die sizes.

 

[Khagiron]

2nm is just awesome. TSMC is currently the only factory that have this technology in development and TSMC is in Taiwan and only last week the Americans are brewing the pot of trouble in Taiwan that made the mainland Chinese skittish. If Taiwan will follow the path of Ukraine and will be invaded by China. Everything electronics on this planet is doomed.

 

[dualkelly]

And yet that's not what's happened with the last two reductions in die sizes.

thats exactly what happens the problem is from 5 to 4nm might get you a few dozen more chips compared to 10 to 5 nm which is double the number of chips... also that isn't taking into account that with smaller nm chips the chips themselves are increasing in functions with massive ondie memories so the chip number might decrease if the chips themselves are growing in size due to integration of other features.

 

[captaincranky]

So my issue with TSMC is the 'all eggs in one basket'. I know they want to make other fabs but let's be real China will try and invade Taiwan one day and at that point the supply on semiconductors will plummet and TSMC's share price will also drop.

This is why TSMC is building a new fab in the US. (Either Texas or Arizona). From where I sit, it's about as much about Taiwan wanting more capacity, as it is a de facto effort to enlist US defense in the event of a Chinese invasion. Building fabs here, is very similar to joining NATO in a clandestine manner.

 

[emmzo]

The Chinese will swarm the island sooner or later. That's what they want and it's stupid to dismiss it, after all Putin had said for years what he wanted and still nobody believed he was going to do it. TSMC should move manufacturing in US as fast as they can.

 

[rmcrys]

it's the same here in the UK. It's mad how a XX60 series card is going for so much still. Who are buying it at that price? I'm not poor but I'm also not stupid

Sorry to say but most are that stupid. You can read reports all over the internet, people bought rtx cards for 3-4x more than their price and they are happy "getting the card is more important than anything";

So, worldwide there is so much stupidity that:
- those want the latest cards no matter what
- scalpers (most of them are workers on electronics' stores) get those cards and put them to sell with a huge profit
- they sell them in a matter of hours/days
- the world gets the message, that stupidity is too much and compensates to sell overpriced because they sell out
- GPU makers, specially Nvidia, don't do anything because they just want to sell but get the message that they can increase prices and they will sell anyway. Why demand that stores sell 1 unit per person with id and that name must be registered on Nvidia, when with zero effort *every* single chip even very old ones get sold?!

So... here you have it.

 

[tancabean]

sigh...just factually incorrect all the way around... smaller nodes mean more chips per wafer means high output... granted going from 3 to 2nm isnt going to increase much but it indeed will increase chip production.

That’s not how it works. New chips on smaller nodes are around the same size because they have more functionality / performance and hence more transistors. What you said is true for respinning an older chip on a new node but nobody does that anymore.

 

[gamerk2]

The Chinese will swarm the island sooner or later. That's what they want and it's stupid to dismiss it, after all Putin had said for years what he wanted and still nobody believed he was going to do it. TSMC should move manufacturing in US as fast as they can.

If nothing else, the whole Ukraine deal highlights when push comes to shove, the US will *not* be defending Taiwan.

 

[gamerk2]

There is no financial interest in doing so. Chip makes are rolling in dough.
Hey, welcome to hyperinflation, the latest conspiracy theory that totally isnt real guyz. Almost like doubling the amount of currency you have in circulation is a REALLY bad idea.....

It's only gonna get worse. My grocery bill goes up every 3-4 weeks, a few cents here, a few cents there. Gas prices are nuts, its only a matter of time until electricity goes out the window.

Remember: you will own nothing, and you will be happy.

Inflation was going to go up for no other reason then unemployment dropped 6 points in about 9 months, coupled with a supply shortage as hiring/production lagged a spike in demand. I predicted 5% GDP versus 5.5% inflation for 2021, missing both only by about a point (6.1% GDP and 6.9% inflation for 2021). But there's nothing in the economic data that highlights inflation should be a long-term thing going forward; CPI aside literally *every* economic indicator is in full boom territory right now.

My only complaint is the Fed should have done a larger initial interest rate hike (I would have gone all the way to 1%, or at bare minimum .5 of a percent), and probably should have done it back in January (though I understand waiting until the "Final" 2021 numbers came out in mid-February).

The spike we're seeing now is more due to "external events" (Ukraine); really can't tell how that's going to play long-term since the Ukraine could be a conflict zone for literal years.

I'd expect inflation to taper off through 2022, coming down to normal levels by mid-2023. I'd point to Reagan's 1982-1983 economy as a good reference for what I'd reasonably expect the economy to look like going forward. As long as the Fed doesn't overcorrect and start a recession, the economy should be outright booming in a year.

 

[mbk34]

I wanted to ask how they're dealing with the current chip shortages and perhaps whether it's wise investing in new fabrication if China are planning to invade. Instead I'm going to who would name their son Bruce Lee?

 

[captaincranky]

I wanted to ask how they're dealing with the current chip shortages and perhaps whether it's wise investing in new fabrication if China are planning to invade.

I would refer you to my post #14

Instead I'm going to who would name their son Bruce Lee?

At my advanced age, I'm not expecting the need to name a child of mine, ever again. But should that unlikely circumstance actually occur, the answer is no. Nor would I name her Chuck Norris, or even in a pinch, Steven Segal.

The overarching question becomes, "how did a child of kung fu movie addicted parents, become a stock analyst for Sachs Goldman"? You would think carrying that name would leave enough emotional and physical scars, to give him aspirations to a career in psychiatry

 

[elementalSG]

I wanted to ask how they're dealing with the current chip shortages and perhaps whether it's wise investing in new fabrication if China are planning to invade. Instead I'm going to who would name their son Bruce Lee?

Indeed the true and critical question in this article is: How did Bruce Lee get reincarnated as a Goldman Sachs analyst?

 

[julesigles]

What's the point of having smaller process node, if so few can afford the chips.
They should focus more on production of current process nodes, to lower chip scarcity, than race into new nodes.

1st question? Not much for most of us.

As for your solution - you do realize they're doing both, right? But new fab plants to cover all the demand and shipping can't be built over night.

 

[rmcrys]

If nothing else, the whole Ukraine deal highlights when push comes to shove, the US will *not* be defending Taiwan.

Why would? The US is just a country, all others should raise their arms also (NATO and others) and not always the US vs. bad guys. China is much more powerful than Russia, they have newer tech, weapons, newer nuclear and the only way to stop Russia, China, etc is not a weapon war but economical.

The world (all) won't stand a chance if some of these "nuclear countries" have a maniac in control, sadly in the case of Russia, the people actually defend him... they just don't get it, what will happen if that guy pushes the button. The same with China. But China for example, if they invade Taiwan, 95% of the companies that buy from them will stop. That means that the way of life of the Chinese will end.

What is sad is to see that on those countries, one person has full power and the people don't raise their voice and let them to...

 

[Watzupken]

In short, I think we will see high chip prices for the next few years. When all the big companies are stuck on the same node, you can be sure prices will be kept high if they try and outbid one another for allocation.

Enter production in 2025 means that we may not see the product until 2026, and “enter production” does not mean that it is mass production.