Opinion articles

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Opinion: Semis Top Five

Editor's take: The industry has changed a lot in the eight years since we wrote our first analysis on the top five chip companies. We anticipated semis were no longer a growth industry and the only way for companies to keep growing was to win market share (hard) or buy other companies. This is especially true in semiconductors because most of these companies outsource their manufacturing to foundries like TSMC and GlobalFoundries.
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The computerized, cloudified 5G network is getting real

Forward-looking: One of the most famous phrases about the value of networks came from Sun Microsystems' Scott Gage in 1984 when he declared that "the network is the computer." That long-time Sun tagline referred more to the value of connecting computers together and the concept of thin clients attaching to a centralized computing infrastructure than cellular networks. Nevertheless, it remains a prescient, pithy synopsis of where the computing and telecom worlds have been headed for the last three decades.
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Renewed enthusiasm for 5G infrastructure at MWC 2023

Why it matters: While there hasn't been a whole lot of groundbreaking 5G news on the consumer front for some time, it's clear there's a whole lot of work and innovation happening in another part of the 5G ecosystem: infrastructure. There's growing activity from traditional "compute" industry vendors eager to make an impact on the telco world. Everyone from chip companies like AMD, to server hardware manufacturers such as Dell, to software houses like Red Hat are doubling down on their efforts to help disrupt the market.
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Intel is in a very bad place, and they need to admit it

And while Intel is fighting for its life, the rest of the industry is moving on
Editor's take: After 30 years of dominance, the industry has come to view Intel as a giant who has fallen on hard times. We do not think this is the right way to view the company, and it creates mental blind spots which hinder our ability to assess what are the right next steps for the company. But it's true, Intel is in a very bad place. It needs to admit that, especially internally. We are not forecasting Doomsday, but we do think it is time to recognize that Intel will never be the force it once was, and probably has not been for a long time.
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When it comes to semiconductors, leading is not everything

Direct and collateral effects of the CHIPS act
Editor's take: Undeniably, we usually spend a lot of time talking about leading edge semiconductor manufacturing. This is a common mistake that everyone falls into when discussing semis, one which we are as guilty of as anyone. The world is rightly focused on the scarcity of companies capable of operating at the leading edge, but there is a lot more to semis.
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AI will go mainstream in 2023

The significance of AI is becoming more commonplace and impactful for a large percentage of the population
Highly anticipated: One of the many challenges in analyzing and predicting trends in the tech industry is that some topics get so much coverage well before they're ready that by the time they start to really impact the market they sound like old news. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a great example of this phenomenon.
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How did TSMC get so good?

There is no simple answer, but we think there are a few factors that really stand out...
The big picture: By now, we are all familiar with the fact that TSMC is, by far, the most capable semiconductor manufacturer in the world, with all the entails for the industry and geopolitics. And as this reality sets in, many people have been asking us how did they get so good?
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Disengaging from China manufacturing is hard, but it's happening slowly

A hot potato: Like a train leaving the station, it now seems inevitable that US companies are moving to reduce, or entirely eliminate, their reliance on China. It took a long time to get started, companies had been complaining about changing conditions in China for a decade. The 2018 trade war was the spark that really got them moving, and their progress has only been gaining momentum since then. This process will take years, maybe decades, but at this point is probably unstoppable.
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Home Depot for DIY Chips: What's the going trend?

The chip companies are never going to really love this business
The big picture: Earlier this year we were reviewing Analyst Day slides from leading semiconductor companies and a clear theme emerged. Large companies are all shifting in a similar direction, posing some potential challenges for their long-term positions. More and more customers are looking for special purpose chips, a coping mechanism for dealing with the slowdown in Moore's Law. And the big players are all looking to support those customers.
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Opinion: The Android-ification of Cars

Cars are still less than 10% revenue for most chip companies
Why it matters: Over the past few years the semis industry has become somewhat obsessed with autos. Every major chip company now dedicates a fair amount of coverage to cars in all their investor presentations. Or at least it seems that way. In part that reflects a genuine growth in auto semis, and in part the tapering of growth in many other categories like mobile, PCs, etc.