7 Tech Predictions for 2019

[Bob O'Donnell]

<div class="bbWrapper"><p>Though it's a year shy of the big decade marker, 2019 looks to be one of the most exciting and most important years for the tech industry in some time. Thanks to the upcoming launch of 5G and foldable displays, as well as critical enhancements in AI, robotics, and other exciting areas, there's a palpable <a href="https://www.techspot.com/article/1774-tech-predictions-2019/">sense of expectation for the new year</a> that we haven't felt for a while.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.techspot.com/article/1774-tech-predictions-2019/"><img src="https://static.techspot.com/articles-info/1774/images/2019-01-02-image-11.jpg"></a></p>
<p><a rel='alternate' href='https://www.techspot.com/article/1774-tech-predictions-2019/' target='_blank' class='permalinkfeat'>Read the full article here.</a></p><p class='permalink'><a rel='alternate' href='https://www.techspot.com/article/1774-tech-predictions-2019/'>https://www.techspot.com/article/1774-tech-predictions-2019/</a></p></div>

 

[TomSEA]

That #7 prediction - cloud-based systems will make OS's irrelevant - is a pretty bold prediction that I don't necessarily agree with.

Virtualization still runs like crap on anything but a handful of PC's. And is problematic as hell. We have it here at my work and there are daily issues with it. Lock-ups, slow-downs and outages are commonplace. At my previous employer we ran a VM test group and determined very quickly that it wasn't ready for prime time yet.

Then you always have the connectivity argument. With a resident operating system, you can still manage numerous business tasks without an internet connection if that goes down. You have a web-based OS and when you lose connectivity, you're SOL and completely shut down.

Not saying it will never happen, but I think we're several years away from web-based OS's being the norm.

 

[Kibaruk]

That #7 prediction - cloud-based systems will make OS's irrelevant - is a pretty bold prediction that I don't necessarily agree with.

It is bold but I think you missed the point, it's not about virtualization itself but rather about being able to use whatever we want in whatever we want. It's not about ditching traditional OS, it's about being able to do the same things you are doing in your windows computer, in your android phone, in your iOS device, in chromebook, and MacOS, or Linux.
TL;DR: It's about platform independence and not the death of platforms.

 

[GreenNova343]

That #7 prediction - cloud-based systems will make OS's irrelevant - is a pretty bold prediction that I don't necessarily agree with.

It is bold but I think you missed the point, it's not about virtualization itself but rather about being able to use whatever we want in whatever we want. It's not about ditching traditional OS, it's about being able to do the same things you are doing in your windows computer, in your android phone, in your iOS device, in chromebook, and MacOS, or Linux.
TL;DR: It's about platform independence and not the death of platforms.

That assumes your employer lets you "use whatever you want in whatever you want". The majority of businesses still control the type of device/PC you use to perform your job functions, whether it's because a) they don't need portability, b) security issues, c) legacy hardware/software support, d) combinations of the prior reasons, or e) some other reason that might be unique to that company/industry.

My biggest question, however, is with #2. Yes, 5G (& its faster speeds) might have an effect on game streaming services...provided that a) the majority of said gamers plan on switching over from their desktops & laptops to smartphones & tablets for their primary gaming devices, or b) that they're willing to pay the extra expense to both buy 5G adapters for their desktops & laptops and spring for the extra money for a data plan in addition to their home Internet (which they'll still need, for example, for their Roku/Amazon Fire sticks to stream channels to their TVs, or on smart TVs, or even for their Alexa-type devices that don't use 5G). Same with WiFi 6: having to buy brand-new smartphones and/or tablets, or buying brand-new WiFi adapters for their laptops and/or desktops, in order to take advantage of the (theoretical) increase in bandwidth when a) using it out in public would be contingent on businesses upgrading their existing WiFi 4/WiFi 5 "free" services to WiFi 6 standards, & b) any theoretical bandwidth will only apply on the internal network, since their overall available connection is still going to be limited by what the ISP provides (as I pointed out in responding to the WiFi 6 article, https://www.techspot.com/article/1769-wi-fi-6-explained/). Remember...just because a handful of people have Gigabit or faster home connections (or that some Starbucks & other "Free" WiFi locations might have a Gigabit or faster connection) doesn't mean that the availability is even that widespread, let alone anywhere close to mainstream connections (I.e. even in South Korea, home of so many eSports leagues & competitions, the average household's connection is still under 30Mbps...much, much, much slower than the "limited" speeds available from WiFi 4 routers). Nor does it (especially) mean that the server you're playing the game on (especially if you're having to also stream the game) can provide that fast of a connection.

 

[ShagnWagn]

Thank you for the article. I agree except:

Prediction 2: Game Streaming Services Go Mainstream
I strongly disagree. "Renting" a game gives complete control over customers. The bandwidth and latency to do this for "mainstream" (hard majority of) customers is not there anyway. We talk about latency just from controller to monitor - now you have to add in internet latency. Kiss your 144hz (or even 60hz) gaming goodbye. Renting? You pay or you lose all. Of course it's what companies want, to strongarm us on our wallets. Don't want us to have it? Take it away at a whim.

Prediction 3: Multi-Cloud Becomes the Standard in Enterprise Computing
I'm sorry, but it's not "cloud" - it's internet. It is a dark and malicious environment. Hurricane would be a more fitting word.
With internet hosting (renting servers), companies are at the mercy of the companies and internet hosting them. Your customer data is also out on the internet, exposed to hackers all over the world. Have an internet connectivity issue at the company? I'm sorry, but your company shuts down completely. My company wants to move our email to the internet. Executives clearly have not thought this through.

Prediction 4: On-Device AI Will Start to Shift the Conversation About Data Privacy
It already is, and has been since they first came out. Probably before. What really amazes me is people actually pay to put these privacy-invading devices in their homes to monitor them 24/7...
Second, there is no such thing as "AI". There is nothing "intelligent" about it, and it's just what programmers tell it to say. It does not learn by itself. It is not an intelligence. Your own definition of AI probably differs than mine.

Prediction 5: Tech Industry Regulation in the US Becomes Real
It is very sad it still is not here. This should have been done years ago. I do not agree with government involvment, but sometimes companies think they are an anarchy.

"Prediction 6: Personal Robotics Will Become an Important New Category"
This is sad that a person will associate a robot with a human?? Basically just an alexa speaker with a body? See #4

"Prediction 7: Cloud-Based Services Will Make Operating Systems Irrelevant"
LOL, people have been saying and trying this for over two decades. For one thing, this is an epic fail prediction, as you just have to read the basic definition of "operating system":

op·er·at·ing sys·tem
-the software that supports a computer's basic functions, such as scheduling tasks, executing applications, and controlling peripherals.

An operating system HAS to boot or there is no way to communicate with the hardware - a computer is a paperweight otherwise. I presume you are talking about a thin client operating system boot? See #3

What I would love to see is an article of new inventions since the last century for the common person. Not just something of technologies from last century put together (like a "smart" [dumb] phone, or a radio with a clock in it).

/me waits for Ever to flame me

 

[Kibaruk]

That assumes your employer lets you "use whatever you want in whatever you want".

Who said anything about employer? You are over complicating something very simple: Cloud-Based Services Will Make Operating Systems Irrelevant.
I want to use... Facebook (Cloud-Based Service right? We are good so far).
Where I want to use it?... doesn't matter, I can open it from wherever there is a browser, and it doesn't matter which browser as any will do the trick (Operating System, Irrelevant), be this a phone browser, a toaster browser or a car browser, heck, even in a Nintendo DS browser you can probably open it.
Ok ok, I'll bite. Corporate world example: (Let's say...) I use Microsoft Excel for multiple things at work, I can use a web based version of it, in my company phone, or in a workstation in the office, or at my home computer, or even in my company computer (I guess you already know where I'm going with this...) which to me, is irrelevant what OS it is based on, it could be a Mac or Windows or Linux or Chromebook and the phone could be an iOS or Android or Symbian or Windows Phone or whatever obscure custom OS or distro I can think about... and this is Operating System Irrelevant.

"Prediction 7: Cloud-Based Services Will Make Operating Systems Irrelevant"
LOL, people have been saying and trying this for over two decades. For one thing, this is an epic fail prediction, as you just have to read the basic definition of "operating system"...

Irrelevant... irrelevant... irrelevant... irrelevant... irrelevant... Irrelevant is one thing, unnecessary is a completely different thing.

...epic fail...

 

[senketsu]

What person in their right mind would use an OS replacement that needs 24/7 internet access or you are SOL?
I guess people who game on their phones, buy Alexa or whatever other brand and are into all this similar sort of Facebook crap.

 

[cliffordcooley]

After reading the other article and the title of this one. I was sure there would have been mention of 8K. I'm relieved there was not.

 

[Uncle Al]

8K? Come on, by the end of the year they will be talking 64K .... and maybe some spare change too!

 

[cliffordcooley]

No doubt!

 

[cliffordcooley]

42k - Maybe we will then learn the answer of live.

 

[TheAudience]

#4 leads to a possible revival of the fax-machine and plug-in-wall-phone among hipsters...

 

[Mister_K]

Flying cars.

 

[fadingfool]

8K? Come on, by the end of the year they will be talking 64K .... and maybe some spare change too!

I haven't talked about 64K since circa 1983......

 

[Kibaruk]

The power of reading eh!

 

[kira setsu]

These companies really hate the idea of ownership dont they?

at this rate the home of the future will be a sterile box, just empty and sad with a tiny speaker in the corner that says how great everything is.

 

[Sausagemeat]

Ooh bold claim abut foldable phones. All it takes is a major manufacturer (say Xiaomi, Huawei, oppo, Apple, samsung) to add 5G to their latest flagship and that prediction fails. Personally I’m not so sure about foldable devices, they will cost a lot, be bulkier and more expensive. Without some kind of killer app I can’t see them shifting great amounts in 2019. They don’t particularly interest me. We also lack a mainstream tablet OS for them. Android is no longer supported on tablets, Apple won’t release a folding device this year and chrome tabs are very rare. I guess it could just be android on them but that would require quite a large amount of UI work to be done by the manufacturer. And I can’t see app manufacturers following with support.

 

[CaptainTom]

#8 - Techspot was dead wrong about the Zen 2 and Navi leaks last month. Techspot failed the common sense test.

 

[CaptainTom]

That #7 prediction - cloud-based systems will make OS's irrelevant - is a pretty bold prediction that I don't necessarily agree with.

Virtualization still runs like crap on anything but a handful of PC's. And is problematic as hell. We have it here at my work and there are daily issues with it. Lock-ups, slow-downs and outages are commonplace. At my previous employer we ran a VM test group and determined very quickly that it wasn't ready for prime time yet.

Then you always have the connectivity argument. With a resident operating system, you can still manage numerous business tasks without an internet connection if that goes down. You have a web-based OS and when you lose connectivity, you're SOL and completely shut down.

Not saying it will never happen, but I think we're several years away from web-based OS's being the norm.

Any time people act like local computation doesn't matter, the demands for said computations becomes more latency intensive.

For example game streaming (while maybe semi-mainstream soon) will never be the "standard." They JUST got 1080p 60Hz working ok lol, and gamers have moved on to 4K and 1080p@144Hz. By the time streaming can do games at 4K@60, we will have moved on to 8K and 4K@144Hz.

Oh, and it's not that expensive to have a gaming rig more powerful than the junk they try to stream to you.

 

[bhmckendrick]

Thank you for the article. I agree except:

And then you proceeded to disagree with every assertion he made ... Well, except for #1. lol.

#2 I agree for 2 reasons ... First, I think nationwide rollouts of the 5g networks to be much slower than the author predicts. Only Verizon has a modestly ambitious 5g plan for 2019. By modestly ambitious, I believe that they have a handful as potential targets with plans to launch 5g service to a few in the second half of 2019. ATT won't even get hardware until 3q ( read 2020 ) and T-mobile hasn't even formulated (at least not publicly) a 5g plan - read ... we'll tell you next year. For 2019, that's just a few Verizon 5g deployments extending the current testbeds in Houston, Sacramento, etc.

Second, this crowd excluded, but most of America doesn't want or need 5g. A large percentage of Americans have little use for LTE. They don't binge 22 episodes of Mad Men on a Sunday on their phone. They aren't moving large data to/fro cloud/edge servers and their mobile devices. They don't know what 5g is - frankly they don't need it - and the US Carrier marketing machine hasn't yet convinced them that they GOTTA HAVE IT. But, a big, shiny screen is an easier sell ( even if they really don't need it either ) - but big screens is just a feature that resonates with US consumers - better to watch videos, look at pictures, be more productive on their phones, look at recipes ... whatever.

#7 Really not sure what you're point is on this one. You start with a bombastic hook line: "THE DEATH OF THE OS". Which isn't at all what you went on to describe - cloud based services, virtualization, blurring of the lines between platform and service and OS independent workloads - all of which happened or is currently at least in flight. You may want to clean #7 up - not sure what you're really getting at there - because what you described was 2018, 2017 or even 2014's story.

 

[Stephen Camm]

Not sure where to start.....but let's try the obvious. Economics.....the changes posed assume the end consumer buys into this and buys whatever is necessary for the majority of items mentioned because if not those companies will suffer some significant CEO replacements. And that leads us to who will buy......Ma and pa who use email, may watch the news and check the weather or the social media crowd concerned with staying in touch with each other 18/7, companies already fearful of data breaches (that nothing will ever be able to stop...just ask me why). Having said that who does it leave left.....gamers and people that like tech for tech's sake. As for housewives or husbands investing in something that sweeps the floor.....wonderful and that will impress your upscale neighbors maybe but most of us are not upscale...you know, the mass market. Having discussed economics and practicality what's left......tech for tech's sake.

So what is a more logical future......well first it starts with improved internet speeds as without that the cloud is worthless and that will take TIME....and think also about the amount of equipment that needs to be replaced world wide....who pays for that given a relatively low acceptance rate or even need? And again practicality....hey my 4G phone works...why do I need 5G for capabilities I don't use or want? Hell, my Carlos slim phone that lets me just say a name and connects me is all I need. $19.95 many years ago and cheap minutes that I use very seldom. Also still working.

Continuing on......and given data security concerns most users will want to keep their personal information theirs (even with government regulation) and the only way to do that is to own your own equipment which brings me to the Biggest unadvertised improvement in computing that exists........put the operating system on a chip. Who wins that battle will be either Micron or Intel in all probability but when done the "box" will be no large than what is required to hold an ssd drive and power supply.......maybe a high end video card if that is not a plug in chip also. Advantages....NO cookies to start with.......and safe meaning the OS can't be hacked (easily) although your data on the drive can be unless hidden.

So to end this long post...I have no idea what the writer gets paid or who pays him and while I applaud his efforts I don't work in San Franciso and simply don't need the capability.