AMD is set to become TSMC's biggest 7nm customer in 2020

mongeese

TS Maniac
Staff member

In the second half of 2020, AMD will double their 7nm orders making them TSMC’s largest customer of 7nm chips according to some forecasts. Going into 2020, TSMC's factories (above) have the capacity to produce 110,000 WPM (wafers per month) of 7nm chips and by the end of the year, they’ll be making 140,000 WPM. AMD will be buying about 20% of that capacity, according to Apple Daily.

Presently, AMD doesn’t make it into the top five at the TSMC club. Apple is their largest 7nm customer but they are expected to move to the 5nm node for the A14 SoC, taking two-thirds of TSMC’s 5nm capacity.

Huawei’s HiSilicon, Qualcomm and SuperMicro are planning 25,000 WPM reservations while MediaTek is going for about 20,000. That leaves roughly 10% of TSMC’s capacity for their other customers, including Nvidia who’ll be looking at 7nm for their Ampere GPUs.

AMD’s flagship Zen 2 Ryzen processors were such good value that they outpaced everyone’s expectations, and AMD ran out of stock at launch. No doubt the extra fab space will fix this for Zen 3.

Mindfactory, Germany’s largest PC hardware retailer, publishes all their sales data and as you can see from the graph above, Zen 2 brought out all the enthusiasts hiding in the shadows. It was a big enough leap that those on long-term upgrade cycles decided it was time for a change. AMD didn’t just steal half of Intel’s customers; they significantly increased the size of the market for 2019.

But that may also mean there’s not much room to expand in the desktop CPU market, so what’s AMD going to use all that 7nm fab space for? Consoles, possibly.

The PlayStation 5 is already confirmed to be using AMD’s 7nm Zen 2 and Navi, and the Xbox Series X is expected to do the same. Both will sell in outrageous volume, no doubt justifying AMD’s large purchase and making them a tidy profit.

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neeyik

TS Evangelist
Staff member
But that may also mean there’s not much room to expand in the desktop CPU market, so what’s AMD going to use all that 7nm fab space for?
Don't forget the next round of desktop/workstation Navi GPU products will be wanting some of that production capacity too.
 
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amstech

IT Overlord
Next gen consoles are 8 core 16 thread CPU's.
Giving how badly Intel's 8/16 9900K slaughters the 8/16 Ryzen 3700X and 3800X in games, it will be interesting to see what exact AMD CPU/GPU they implement into the PS5 and Scarlett.
 

Lew Zealand

TS Evangelist
Next gen consoles are 8 core 16 thread CPU's.
Giving how badly Intel's 8/16 9900K slaughters the 8/16 Ryzen 3700X and 3800X in games, it will be interesting to see what exact AMD CPU/GPU they implement into the PS5 and Scarlett.
The 9900K is an overpriced (and now cherrypicked to be slower) $500 CPU and consoles are $500 entire units. What was the point of comparing those 2 entirely dissimilar things?

If it was to compare them as entire units, then yes, any Ryzen based design with a Vega 5 or better GPU will wipe the floor with the 9900K and it's decade-old GPU. NVM, the 9900K still needs a mobo, ps, ram, cooler...
 

Lounds

TS Maniac
Next gen consoles are 8 core 16 thread CPU's.
Giving how badly Intel's 8/16 9900K slaughters the 8/16 Ryzen 3700X and 3800X in games, it will be interesting to see what exact AMD CPU/GPU they implement into the PS5 and Scarlett.
"Slaughters" I mean if the Rx 5700 is GPU bound it wouldn't matter if it's paired with a Intel or AMD CPU. You're statement only refers to the RTX2080ti at 1080 or 1440 resolutions and at best it's 15% difference, on average is 10% faster using intel. For the average person AMD is still the best option.
 
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amstech

IT Overlord
"Slaughters" I mean if the Rx 5700 is GPU bound
Nope, happens with both green and red GPU's at various resolutions.
This site has plenty of data.
They get raped.
For the average person who games, in most cases Intel is the best option, which is why AMD is 3rd place.

Congrats on that value thing, blender benchmark and file zipping trophy though.
 
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Uncle Al

TS Evangelist
Lots of good arguments but let's not overlook the fact that ALL of this is great for the consumer not only now, but in a few years when these chips are less popular and a lot more affordable!
 
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Dimitrios

TS Guru
Next gen consoles are 8 core 16 thread CPU's.
Giving how badly Intel's 8/16 9900K slaughters the 8/16 Ryzen 3700X and 3800X in games, it will be interesting to see what exact AMD CPU/GPU they implement into the PS5 and Scarlett.
LOL "Slaughters". Good one, maybe at 720P buddy. Face it, INTEL is a fuc*ing has been. INTEL's spotlight is now gone.
 
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amstech

IT Overlord
INTEL's spotlight is now gone.
Ohh don't get me wrong, I got a bone to pick with Intel being lazy.
I am not all that happy with some things they've did either.
But when it comes to gaming, they are king.
I am curious to see what AMD will put in the new consoles...arent you?
 

Hardware Geek

TS Maniac
There are those people who actually use their computers predominantly for work. AMD is close enough in gaming performance that unless your only use for the computer is gaming, the value proposition presented by AMD absolutely slaughters Intel. I don't have a "favorite" company and my desktop and laptops are all intel, but my next build will absolutely be AMD unless Intel surprises us with the same core counts as AMD and lowers its prices to at or near parity for the same core counts.
 
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Irata

TS Maniac
But that may also mean there’s not much room to expand in the desktop CPU market, so what’s AMD going to use all that 7nm fab space for?"
How about OEM - while AMD makes a killing at retailers, that is only a small part of the market. Maybe the OEM will finally grow a pair and offer nice AMD based systems that they actually market.

Next gen consoles are 8 core 16 thread CPU's.
Giving how badly Intel's 8/16 9900K slaughters the 8/16 Ryzen 3700X and 3800X in games, it will be interesting to see what exact AMD CPU/GPU they implement into the PS5 and Scarlett.
Thing is, like others - and you - posted, the CPU only is $495. Add to the a (good) mainboard, memory, HSF, GPU, case.... and we are talking a nice sum.

If the next gen XBox / PS5 are around $500-600 for an entire system with a controller, that will be hard to beat. Also, as games are highly optimized for a console, that alone gives you better performance than a comparable PC.

Now if Microsoft are *really* smart and offer a dual boot deluxe XBox that can be used as a console or a regular Windows 10 PC (it already looks like a small one) for around $1,000, this will make it look even more attractive.

 

amstech

IT Overlord
There are those people who actually use their computers predominantly for work. AMD is close enough in gaming performance that unless your only use for the computer is gaming, the value proposition presented by AMD absolutely slaughters Intel.
For everyday home PC use and 90% of work applications a Core i5 is enough for most people.
We just installed about 260 of 390 new HP 400 G6 ProDesks, running a 6 core coffee lake or 9500's.
The 9700K slaughters anything AMD has in its price range for gaming.
Only AMD's most expensive Ryzen chips that cost much more rival Intel, but intel is still faster by near 20 FPS in some games., about 5-7% overall though 30 games.

This is why AMD is 3rd place in this area, and by a long shot.
 
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Evernessince

地獄らしい人間動物園
Next gen consoles are 8 core 16 thread CPU's.
Giving how badly Intel's 8/16 9900K slaughters the 8/16 Ryzen 3700X and 3800X in games, it will be interesting to see what exact AMD CPU/GPU they implement into the PS5 and Scarlett.
Didn't realize 4% was a slaughter. By that logic, the 3950X is not only manhandling the 9900X in multi-threaded by being 110% faster, it's doing it with Intel's mother and father in the room.

Funny thing is, I've been seeing twictch steamers switch over to the 3950X as it can encode in real time and play games buttery smooth. No need for a second rig. But yeah that 4% gaming advantage for Intel is cute until the next security bug comes out.
 

mongeese

TS Maniac
Staff member
Don't forget the next round of desktop/workstation Navi GPU products will be wanting some of that production capacity too.
No doubt they will, and Milan too. However, AMD, being a little short on cash have always erred towards caution with their orders, so for 1st gen Ryzen and 3rd gen Ryzen they ordered not quite enough despite being extremely confident about the products. Navi is certainly way better than Vega but it's not Ryzen versus Bulldozer good, so I don't think they'd place big orders on fab space for it.
I personally believe at this point, AMD's GPUs are competitive because of TSMC's 7nm development and because Nvidia priced themselves out of the market by adding raytracing without making it appealing. That's why AMD's GPUs that compete with Nvidia's 20-series are competitive, and those that compete with the 16-series are less competitive. I don't think we'll see AMD take their GPU sales particularly seriously for a little while yet.
 

Lew Zealand

TS Evangelist
Nope, happens with both green and red GPU's at various resolutions.
This site has plenty of data.
They get raped.
For the average person who games, in most cases Intel is the best option, which is why AMD is 3rd place.

Congrats on that value thing, blender benchmark and file zipping trophy though.
By that logic, the 9900K is a completely irrelevant chip with the exception of the following circumstance:

You wish to spend >$1200 on a CPU and GPU to play games at 1080p or lower. Congrats on that trophy.
 
I personally believe at this point, AMD's GPUs are competitive because of TSMC's 7nm development and because Nvidia priced themselves out of the market by adding raytracing without making it appealing. That's why AMD's GPUs that compete with Nvidia's 20-series are competitive, and those that compete with the 16-series are less competitive. I don't think we'll see AMD take their GPU sales particularly seriously for a little while yet.
AMD's new GPUs are competitive because of the RDNA architecture which fundamentally fixes everything that was wrong with Vega for gaming. 7nm is nice and all, but ultimately, was likely a mistake as every 7nm GPU TSMC builds is contributing towards a shortage on the CPU side of the house.

I can't help but think if AMD had stayed on 12nm for Navi and reserved 7nm for Zen 2 it would have been better for all, as Navi could have been priced lower while maintaining margins and it wouldn't have impacted CPU production.

I'm convinced one of the reasons we haven't seen the 5900 XT is AMD doesn't want it to take away from Zen 2 production capacity.
 
Didn't realize 4% was a slaughter. By that logic, the 3950X is not only manhandling the 9900X in multi-threaded by being 110% faster, it's doing it with Intel's mother and father in the room.
4% with a $1200 GPU. Utterly irrelevant is 99.9% of circumstances and tasks.
 

jbc029

TS Booster
Nope, happens with both green and red GPU's at various resolutions.
This site has plenty of data.
They get raped.
For the average person who games, in most cases Intel is the best option, which is why AMD is 3rd place.

Congrats on that value thing, blender benchmark and file zipping trophy though.
No. It does not.
 

CharmsD

TS Booster
TechSpot Elite
AMD projection: TSMC wafers for AMD may increase to 1,680,000. Chartists can slice that into chip output, above my pay grade.

Hey found on reddit;
AMD will roughly order 22k wafer per month in 1H and 30k wafer per month in 2H. That's 312k total 7nm wafer in 2020.

Assume the following:
- TSMC sell wafer at 7nm 10k per wafer (can't find a very good source for that, but most people quote this price)
- 40% mark up on other costs (mask set, packaging, testing)
- 50% gross margin (higher gross margin on new products)
31.5k*10k*1.40/(1-0.5) = 8.8b

AMD is not ordering only from TSMC 7nm. there's a few things to add:

- 16nm console chip sales for 1H 2020 before transitioning to 7nm in 2H. I will ball park 700m total revenue
- legacy products fab using GF (12low end ryzen cheaps, A-series laptop chips that saw a come back as because of intel low end shortage) . Also there's license revenue (samsung, etc). I will ball park 500m for this part
- Other non-TSMC parts like IO chips used in Rome, HBM2 for Vega 20. I will ball park 200m for this part

Total revenue = 8.8b + 700m + 500m + 200m = 10.2b. Which is higher than consensus 2020 revenue forecast of 8.5b.
 

Vulcanproject

TS Evangelist
The typical leading console could comfortably sell 15 million units in the first 12 months.

Xbox Series X looks like it is the high end SKU for Microsoft. It is appearing increasingly likely it'll be extremely powerful and similarly expensive. I can't see it costing any less than $500, possibly even more if the rumours hold true about it having a whopping 56CU GPU. Larger and faster than a 5700XT!

That high end, boundary pushing console would leave room for a lower end, cheaper Xbox SKU. AMD are going to need at least 10 million chips for the launch of those machines by the end of 2020, and a host more to fill demand in 1H 2021.
 
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