Nvidia turns RTX 5000 GPUs at MSRP into one of QuakeCon's biggest attractions

[Loadedaxe]

"Average Inflation", is a completely contrived statistic for the convenience of any administration and oddly enough, the press.

Looking back, I should have called my premise, "effective rate of inflation"+-, as it pertains to various types of products, and it's effect on different income groups. Then, I wouldn't have troubled you to go to great lengths, telling me things I'm already acutely aware of.

That the average American consumer is price oblivious, while being greed and social status motivated, is a given.`

That the average American consumer, (especially gamers), are unable to differentiate want, from need, to "I absolutely can't live without this", is yet another given. IE: "This card only has 16GB of VRAM." (Whaaah!)

That certain segments of the inner city population go around wantonly injecting their "legacy", into young women, is a given. "He has the most bling and the loudest subwoofer on the block. It's my honor to be knocked up and left by him." The net result is disproportionate population growth. Of course the current administration feels the way to attack this is to "pray harder", and outlaw abortion. The net result of that is, to keep the baby, the bath water, and all the crap that's been floating around in it for years.

That local newscasters have to talk down to us like we're all in 5th grade, is a given. IE: "Now if you want to save money at the supermarket, buy generic products, instead of brand names". I've been doing that for years and years. Does that make me smart, or someone with no place further to fall?

In any event, I'm old and living on a "fixed income". Surprisingly, my credit rating, (at least for today), is 819. My income has increased exactly commensurate with inflation. Still, when I go to the supermarket a large can of coffee is about $20.00. In 2009, I could grab one on sale, for $5.00. The "effective rate of inflation", on that particular product, is 300%. That's not entirely unique, but it does stand out.

As to my "disposable income" personal spending habits go, I've been trying to rein them in. Por ejemplo: I was in the supermarket the other night, and spied a white Phalenopsis orchid. But atypically, it had 3 flower spikes. As I already had a white, it had to be considered "a luxury". Shamelessly, I charged ahead and paid the outrage of $23.00 price tag, and began to take it home. Outside the store, this little piggy went whee, whee, whee, while shackled in guilt, all the way home.

As for, "published statistics", IIRC, early in this administration, "job creation numbers" were listed as 300,000. However, during the same period, "new claims for unemployment compensation", were listed separately as 294,000.

Now an uneducated pedestrian such as myself might confuse and combine the two statistic numbers, and convince themselves that net job growth was actually only 6,000 new positions. But I'm fairly certain, you know better.

As far as the crap/statistics you and president Doctor Demento are publicizing goes, it's mostly fantasy. Off the top of my head, how does receiving 49.6% of the vote constitute, "a tremendous landslide?"

If you'd like to further try and talk down to me about the differences between relative, average, effective and manipulated inflation statistics, while examining their effects on different income strata, I'm here for ya..... cheers...!

PS, here's a teaser. At what exact point does supply and demand end, and price gouging begin?

Now we're getting somewhere, because “different households experience different rates of inflation” is a perfectly legitimate argument.

In fact, the BLS says exactly that. Someone who spends disproportionately on housing, medical care, groceries, insurance, etc. can experience a very different personal inflation rate than the national CPI.

What I objected to was calling the national average “contrived” and then using individual products to replace it.

An average isn't bogus merely because individual observations differ from it. That's literally why averages exist.

Your coffee example is perfectly valid as an example of coffee getting dramatically more expensive for you. If the same quantity and quality genuinely went from $5 to $20, that's a 300% price increase.

But it still doesn't establish 300% inflation.

My homeowners insurance, a graphics card, your coffee and somebody else's rent can all increase at wildly different rates simultaneously. That's why CPI tracks hundreds of categories and weights them according to consumer spending instead of having economists walk into a supermarket and yell, “Holy crap, Folgers is $20!”

Where you really lose me is this...300,000 jobs created minus 294,000 unemployment claims = 6,000 jobs.

Those statistics cannot be subtracted from one another.

Payroll employment measures the net monthly change in payroll jobs. Initial unemployment claims are weekly applications for unemployment benefits after a job separation, and they don't even represent every unemployed person. The BLS explicitly warns that unemployment insurance claims cannot be used as a complete measure of unemployment.

Someone can file an unemployment claim Monday and start another job Friday. Companies can eliminate 250,000 jobs while other companies create 550,000 and payroll employment still rises 300,000. The gains and losses are already occurring inside the labor market measurement.

So subtracting unemployment claims from payroll growth is basically subtracting apples from transmissions because both happened during the same month.

And I'll even give you the Trump point.

He received 49.80% of the popular vote in 2024, versus Harris at 48.32%. Calling that a “tremendous popular vote landslide” would be political hyperbole, not mathematics. He did win the Electoral College decisively, 312 to 226, but those are two different statements.

See how that works? I don't have to massage statistics to defend Trump, Biden, Democrats, Republicans or anyone else. If a claim is wrong, it's wrong regardless of whose name is attached to it.

As for your teaser ... where does supply and demand end and price gouging begin?

There isn't some magical economic percentage where one transforms into the other.

A shortage can legitimately make prices rise because supply fell relative to demand. Price gouging is generally a legal or normative question, often defined by state laws during emergencies. And if competing companies actually coordinate prices, that's something different again...price fixing, which is illegal.

So yes, personal inflation is real.
Yes, lower income households can be hurt disproportionately.
Yes, certain products have gone up far more than CPI.
Yes, politicians cherry pick statistics.

But none of that makes the CPI “fantasy.”

And frankly, if we've gone from “the dollar lost 75% of its value” to “my personal basket of goods rose faster than average,” then we've made considerable progress.

That's the argument I was making in the first place.

 

[captaincranky]

$20!”

Where you really lose me is this...300,000 jobs created minus 294,000 unemployment claims = 6,000 jobs.

Those statistics cannot be subtracted from one another.

Payroll employment measures the net monthly change in payroll jobs. Initial unemployment claims are weekly applications for unemployment benefits after a job separation, and they don't even represent every unemployed person. The BLS explicitly warns that unemployment insurance claims cannot be used as a complete measure of unemployment.

Someone can file an unemployment claim Monday and start another job Friday. Companies can eliminate 250,000 jobs while other companies create 550,000 and payroll employment still rises 300,000. The gains and losses are already occurring inside the labor market measurement.

So subtracting unemployment claims from payroll growth is basically subtracting apples from transmissions because both happened during the same month.

And I'll even give you the Trump point.

He received 49.80% of the popular vote in 2024, versus Harris at 48.32%. Calling that a “tremendous popular vote landslide” would be political hyperbole, not mathematics. He did win the Electoral College decisively, 312 to 226, but those are two different statements.

See how that works? I don't have to massage statistics to defend Trump, Biden, Democrats, Republicans or anyone else. If a claim is wrong, it's wrong regardless of whose name is attached to it.

As for your teaser ... where does supply and demand end and price gouging begin?

There isn't some magical economic percentage where one transforms into the other.

A shortage can legitimately make prices rise because supply fell relative to demand. Price gouging is generally a legal or normative question, often defined by state laws during emergencies. And if competing companies actually coordinate prices, that's something different again...price fixing, which is illegal.

So yes, personal inflation is real.
Yes, lower income households can be hurt disproportionately.
Yes, certain products have gone up far more than CPI.
Yes, politicians cherry pick statistics.

But none of that makes the CPI “fantasy.”

And frankly, if we've gone from “the dollar lost 75% of its value” to “my personal basket of goods rose faster than average,” then we've made considerable progress.

That's the argument I was making in the first place.

OK, the CPI as an aggregate tends to smooth out the wrinkles, and not be illustrative of what's actually going on. We might as well say, "the average US male is 5' 10" 170 Lbs. The average US female is 5' 7" and weighs 145 Lbs." (I was being far too kind with that last stat).

As for whether jobs lost as opposed to jobs gained can be compared, I still insist that it can. But, I'm "massaging statistics" to suit my messaging. OTOH, if 294,000 jobs were shed on some areas, but 300.000 were gained in others the >difference< between jobs created versus jobs lost is still 6,000, like it or not. But you're correct that no one is going to drill down about the outcome of each and everyone of those layoff instances. Which does, (hopefully to your own chagrin), leave you free to speculate, or "massage", (coulda, maybe, might have), if you will, the stats.

In your earlier post, you mentioned "Door-Dash". I'll see your Door-Dash, and raise you one Uber. Both of these, "newly created occupations", are chicken/egg conundrums. In that perhaps an associate professor at the local community college was laid off and needed an interim way of earning money. Or, the local trust fund kid, decided that his parent purchased car was a great way to "meet chicks". In either case, "another taxi driver bites the dust". (To the tune of Bonjovi). In this case, jobs lost (chicken) versus jobs gained (egg, are in equilibrium. As for "which came first", as with the chicken, I guess you had to be there.

I've been posting for years pretty much the same observations you've displayed about American consumers in general. They, we, you, and I, have been spoiled rotten. Seriously, screw that guy who used to work at the steel mill, I want cheaper stuff, and I don't care where it's made.

Locally, this raised its stupid, pointed, little, money is no object, nonthinking, head. The Sixers obtained Lebron James. After which, nosebleed tickets soared to 200+ dollars, and $155.00 jerseys sold out in a flash. But, "we're gonna be conten-duhs". Philly fans are ever loyal. You can lead them by the wallet, like lambs to the slaughter. All you need is a Judas goat, for example an aging basketball star such as Lebron James, to get them to the slaughter arena.

I inputted "statistics say whatever you want", and Google's search suggestion came up with this "There are three kinds of lies, lies, damned lies, and statistics."

In other conceivably related news, the US economy shed 23,000 jobs last month, but unemployment remained at 4.2% That contradiction is made possible by the fact that those looking looking for work, stopped. But then, they always say that. Or perhaps as you say, they got other jobs by the next Friday. I hear selling drugs, running drugs, and cooking meth, all pay well.
Now, a musical Interlude, or an ode to a meth chef, as dictated by your generation of birth.

Oh, and it's rumored that our stockpile of precision guided weapons is running low. IMO this presents a golden opportunity for China to "invite" Taiwan back into the fold. It could be very, very, lucrative, considering how much money Taiwan is dragging in with this, "memory shortage" dilemma. (And back on topic)
In passing, were you aware that having a ballroom on the White house grounds, is, "critical to US security"?

 

[ddferrari]

I'd buy a 5080 AND a 5090, then sell the 5090 on ebay for $4K.

Then I'd have a free 5080 and $1K in my pocket

 

[captaincranky]

When he's pretending to kiss gamers, I think I'm more than fair.

Fair point

IMO, that would just show the foolishness of the Gamers for putting Huang on a pedestal.

So I take it that you don't think that Huang should, "sitteth at the left hand of Musk the Ravager", for purposes of further inspiring awe and idolatry?

Dude, loosen up.

 

[Loadedaxe]

OK, the CPI as an aggregate tends to smooth out the wrinkles, and not be illustrative of what's actually going on. We might as well say, "the average US male is 5' 10" 170 Lbs. The average US female is 5' 7" and weighs 145 Lbs." (I was being far too kind with that last stat).

As for whether jobs lost as opposed to jobs gained can be compared, I still insist that it can. But, I'm "massaging statistics" to suit my messaging. OTOH, if 294,000 jobs were shed on some areas, but 300.000 were gained in others the >difference< between jobs created versus jobs lost is still 6,000, like it or not. But you're correct that no one is going to drill down about the outcome of each and everyone of those layoff instances. Which does, (hopefully to your own chagrin), leave you free to speculate, or "massage", (coulda, maybe, might have), if you will, the stats.

In your earlier post, you mentioned "Door-Dash". I'll see your Door-Dash, and raise you one Uber. Both of these, "newly created occupations", are chicken/egg conundrums. In that perhaps an associate professor at the local community college was laid off and needed an interim way of earning money. Or, the local trust fund kid, decided that his parent purchased car was a great way to "meet chicks". In either case, "another taxi driver bites the dust". (To the tune of Bonjovi). In this case, jobs lost (chicken) versus jobs gained (egg, are in equilibrium. As for "which came first", as with the chicken, I guess you had to be there.

I've been posting for years pretty much the same observations you've displayed about American consumers in general. They, we, you, and I, have been spoiled rotten. Seriously, screw that guy who used to work at the steel mill, I want cheaper stuff, and I don't care where it's made.

Locally, this raised its stupid, pointed, little, money is no object, nonthinking, head. The Sixers obtained Lebron James. After which, nosebleed tickets soared to 200+ dollars, and $155.00 jerseys sold out in a flash. But, "we're gonna be conten-duhs". Philly fans are ever loyal. You can lead them by the wallet, like lambs to the slaughter. All you need is a Judas goat, for example an aging basketball star such as Lebron James, to get them to the slaughter arena.

I inputted "statistics say whatever you want", and Google's search suggestion came up with this "There are three kinds of lies, lies, damned lies, and statistics."

In other conceivably related news, the US economy shed 23,000 jobs last month, but unemployment remained at 4.2% That contradiction is made possible by the fact that those looking looking for work, stopped. But then, they always say that. Or perhaps as you say, they got other jobs by the next Friday. I hear selling drugs, running drugs, and cooking meth, all pay well.
Now, a musical Interlude, or an ode to a meth chef, as dictated by your generation of birth.

Oh, and it's rumored that our stockpile of precision guided weapons is running low. IMO this presents a golden opportunity for China to "invite" Taiwan back into the fold. It could be very, very, lucrative, considering how much money Taiwan is dragging in with this, "memory shortage" dilemma. (And back on topic)
In passing, were you aware that having a ballroom on the White house grounds, is, "critical to US security"?

We’re actually closer on some of this than you think.

Yes, CPI is an aggregate, so it smooths out individual experiences. That doesn’t make it contrived...that’s the point of an aggregate. Your personal inflation rate can absolutely be higher if you spend more on categories that rose faster than average.

Where I still disagree is the jobs math. A payroll gain of 300,000 is already a net figure. You can’t then subtract 294,000 unemployment claims and call the result 6,000, because claims are not the same thing as jobs lost and the payroll number already reflects jobs gained and lost across the economy.

The Uber/DoorDash example is similar. New jobs can displace old ones, but one Uber driver does not automatically equal one taxi driver eliminated. Economies constantly create, destroy and transform jobs.

On Taiwan, I agree that depleted U.S. munitions stockpiles are a legitimate concern. But that does not automatically create a “golden opportunity” for China. Beijing would have to consider U.S. submarines, aircraft, missiles, Japan, allied involvement, sanctions and the enormous risks of an amphibious invasion.

And invading Taiwan to profit from semiconductors would be rather self defeating if the war damages the fabs, power grid, workforce and supply chain you were supposedly trying to acquire.

Same with the White House ballroom...security upgrades incorporated into the project can be legitimate without making the ballroom itself “critical to national security.”

So yes, statistics can be abused. Politicians cherry pick them constantly.

But anecdotes and hypothetical scenarios can be abused too.

Somewhere between CPI, Uber, meth labs, Taiwan and White House ballrooms, I think our inflation discussion has now achieved global coverage.

 

[captaincranky]

@Loadedaxe I'll be with you shortly. I got bogged down at Quora. And yes, I'm embarrassed even mentioning that personal lack of responsibility and inattentiveness. I hate it when "senior moments" rear their ugly head.

 

[captaincranky]

We’re actually closer on some of this than you think.

Yes, CPI is an aggregate, so it smooths out individual experiences. That doesn’t make it contrived...that’s the point of an aggregate. Your personal inflation rate can absolutely be higher if you spend more on categories that rose faster than average.

Where I still disagree is the jobs math. A payroll gain of 300,000 is already a net figure. You can’t then subtract 294,000 unemployment claims and call the result 6,000, because claims are not the same thing as jobs lost and the payroll number already reflects jobs gained and lost across the economy.

The Uber/DoorDash example is similar. New jobs can displace old ones, but one Uber driver does not automatically equal one taxi driver eliminated. Economies constantly create, destroy and transform jobs.

On Taiwan, I agree that depleted U.S. munitions stockpiles are a legitimate concern. But that does not automatically create a “golden opportunity” for China. Beijing would have to consider U.S. submarines, aircraft, missiles, Japan, allied involvement, sanctions and the enormous risks of an amphibious invasion.

And invading Taiwan to profit from semiconductors would be rather self defeating if the war damages the fabs, power grid, workforce and supply chain you were supposedly trying to acquire.

Same with the White House ballroom...security upgrades incorporated into the project can be legitimate without making the ballroom itself “critical to national security.”

So yes, statistics can be abused. Politicians cherry pick them constantly.

But anecdotes and hypothetical scenarios can be abused too.

Somewhere between CPI, Uber, meth labs, Taiwan and White House ballrooms, I think our inflation discussion has now achieved global coverage.

Yes we are. We're just ironing out same of the finer details.

I hope you'll excuse my temporary absence. I was out "savoring the Walmart shopping experience". Trickier than ever, this time their cat litter supplier forgot to adequately seal the bottom of the boxes. Thankfully, it's in a plastic bag inside the box. (Not that I'd be the one to clean it. Hopefully the stock boy hasn't been deported as of yet.

As to whether or not the CPI is "contrived", it isn't, and that was perhaps a poor choice of words on my part . It's actually useless, other than being a, "statistic for the sake of having a statistic". Ostensibly, it could be claimed that it pertains to those of the "median income brackets". However, that tax bracket seems to be experiencing quite an, "upwardly mobile", index point at present. What the CPI achieves is giving whichever a**hole is in charge, a talking point to claim, "I don't understand what these beggars are complaining about, 4% isn't bad". Besides, "I've got more graft coming in than at any previous point in my life". Why If it weren't for the presidency, I'd probably be reduced to working on my 7th bankruptcy, next set of felonies, or fake charity.

Yes, as the population increases new jobs are, of necessity, created. Uber drivers in particular, can easily enticed, (or suckered in), by the old, "be you own boss" patter. We're going to need more Uber drivers, when "the donald", gets done deporting all the foreign MDs, that are forced to work as taxi drivers until they're allowed to practice medicine here in the US. (Yes, I may be exaggerating a "bit".)

As for my "golden opportunity for invading Taiwan", comment, I agree there is a much lower chance of China invading Taiwan, than trumpty dumper, invading anywhere the mood might strike. (pun not intended). Xi Jinping is not anywhere as stupid, reckless or impetuous as our "orange Pac-man d**khead in chief. It's still a "golden opportunity". I found it especially comical and extremely subtle, when Xi handed our circus clown a package of rose seeds. That was a quite demeaning way of saying, "I'd much, much, rather be talking to Obama".

As to inflation, I haven't priced meth, or high end video cards as of late. but coffee is still $20.00 a can.

In the years after WWII, (the Eisenhower years), a man could legitimately expect to buy a home, have a wife and kids, and survive, (with a bit of struggle), on his single income. Now, the news is promoting the idea that, "it may better to rent". So kudos to all those house buying corporate vultures. You've achieved your goals of having every living person pay you rent, until the the day they die, or get evicted, whichever comes first.

In other news, poor Joe Biden's prostate cancer has metastasized. Pity it's not a communicable disease. Otherwise, I like to see him kiss orange-stiltskin, square on the mouth. This is unfortunate, as some late stage prostate cancers are slow moving, and some never leave the gland itself

In yet still other news, some disease conscious organization (?), has published that the doing the thing that men and boys perennially do and vigorously deny, 21 times a month, staves off prostate cancer . I should close for now, fire up a private window, and get yanking on that... Cheers...!

 

[Loadedaxe]

Yes we are. We're just ironing out same of the finer details.

I hope you'll excuse my temporary absence. I was out "savoring the Walmart shopping experience". Trickier than ever, this time their cat litter supplier forgot to adequately seal the bottom of the boxes. Thankfully, it's in a plastic bag inside the box. (Not that I'd be the one to clean it. Hopefully the stock boy hasn't been deported as of yet.

As to whether or not the CPI is "contrived", it isn't, and that was perhaps a poor choice of words on my part . It's actually useless, other than being a, "statistic for the sake of having a statistic". Ostensibly, it could be claimed that it pertains to those of the "median income brackets". However, that tax bracket seems to be experiencing quite an, "upwardly mobile", index point at present. What the CPI achieves is giving whichever a**hole is in charge, a talking point to claim, "I don't understand what these beggars are complaining about, 4% isn't bad". Besides, "I've got more graft coming in than at any previous point in my life". Why If it weren't for the presidency, I'd probably be reduced to working on my 7th bankruptcy, next set of felonies, or fake charity.

Yes, as the population increases new jobs are, of necessity, created. Uber drivers in particular, can easily enticed, (or suckered in), by the old, "be you own boss" patter. We're going to need more Uber drivers, when "the donald", gets done deporting all the foreign MDs, that are forced to work as taxi drivers until they're allowed to practice medicine here in the US. (Yes, I may be exaggerating a "bit".)

As for my "golden opportunity for invading Taiwan", comment, I agree there is a much lower chance of China invading Taiwan, than trumpty dumper, invading anywhere the mood might strike. (pun not intended). Xi Jinping is not anywhere as stupid, reckless or impetuous as our "orange Pac-man d**khead in chief. It's still a "golden opportunity". I found it especially comical and extremely subtle, when Xi handed our circus clown a package of rose seeds. That was a quite demeaning way of saying, "I'd much, much, rather be talking to Obama".

As to inflation, I haven't priced meth, or high end video cards as of late. but coffee is still $20.00 a can.

In the years after WWII, (the Eisenhower years), a man could legitimately expect to buy a home, have a wife and kids, and survive, (with a bit of struggle), on his single income. Now, the news is promoting the idea that, "it may better to rent". So kudos to all those house buying corporate vultures. You've achieved your goals of having every living person pay you rent, until the the day they die, or get evicted, whichever comes first.

In other news, poor Joe Biden's prostate cancer has metastasized. Pity it's not a communicable disease. Otherwise, I like to see him kiss orange-stiltskin, square on the mouth. This is unfortunate, as some late stage prostate cancers are slow moving, and some never leave the gland itself

In yet still other news, some disease conscious organization (?), has published that the doing the thing that men and boys perennially do and vigorously deny, 21 times a month, staves off prostate cancer . I should close for now, fire up a private window, and get yanking on that... Cheers...!

See, now we're mostly arguing over the size of the wrinkles rather than whether the shirt exists.

I absolutely agree that CPI doesn't describe everyone's personal experience. Someone spending heavily on housing, food, insurance and healthcare can feel substantially more pain than the headline number suggests. That's a legitimate criticism of politicians using CPI as a “see, everything's fine” talking point, even though CPI itself is doing exactly what it was designed to do.

Your housing point is much stronger than our original inflation argument. Whatever combination of housing supply, financing costs, zoning, investor ownership and income growth got us here, we've reached a point where buying a basic home is considerably harder for a lot of ordinary earners than it was for previous generations.

That's a real problem.

I will, however, need stronger evidence before accepting Walmart's defective cat litter boxes as a leading economic indicator. You must share pics!

Although if the bottom of the box falls out and the price still goes up next month, I'm willing to add it to the CPI basket personally.

The Uber point I also will have to agree with. The economy does this constantly...one industry creates convenience while another industry gets punched in the mouth. Consumers yell “progress!” while the guy who owned the taxi medallion quietly wonders why his retirement plan just turned into a decorative piece of paper.

And yes, Americans have absolutely spent decades demanding cheap everything while simultaneously asking where all the domestic manufacturing jobs went.

“We need American jobs!”

“Excellent. This toaster is made in Ohio and costs $49.”

“Whoa, whoa, whoa. Amazon has one for $19.99.”

And there goes Ohio.

On Taiwan's “golden opportunity.” Xi may be calculating, but an amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait is one hell of a way to go bargain shopping for semiconductors.

Imagine spending hundreds of billions of dollars, starting a regional war, wrecking global trade and possibly flattening the factory you wanted...

...just to save a few bucks on RAM.

Even Newegg doesn't run sales that aggressive.

And yes, I checked the prostate thing because naturally this discussion has now wandered from inflation statistics to recommended monthly ejaculation quotas.

There actually is research showing an association between more frequent ejaculation and a lower incidence of prostate cancer. Momma better get her act together ...

Which means after coffee, CPI, Uber, Taiwan, Walmart cat litter, housing policy and masturbation, we may have accidentally created the most comprehensive economic thread TechSpot has ever hosted.

We might accidentally cure inflation too.

 

[Endymio]

... generously allowing its customers the chance to purcahse [sic] GPUs for the price they're supposed to pay. "

Editor cleanup needed on Aisle 9. And despite the inflammatory yellow journalism, MSRP is nothing more than a "suggested" price. Not even NVidia can rewrite the laws of economics: when demand exceeds supply, either the price rises, or the shelves run bare ... which is why they specifically note "...supplies at QuakeCon are limited."

Pay a higher price from direct from a retailer -- or pay a higher price from a scalper, because the retailer has no product to sell. Take your pick.

 

[Endymio]

On Taiwan's “golden opportunity.” Xi may be calculating, but an amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait is one hell of a way to go bargain shopping for semiconductors.

Imagine spending hundreds of billions of dollars, starting a regional war, wrecking global trade and possibly flattening the factory you wanted...

...just to save a few bucks on RAM.

The CCP's motivations have nothing to do with semiconductors: they've been maneuvering to take Taiwan for long before Taiwan even made RAM or any other chips. And now that China has successfully cloned a significant portion of Taiwan's semiconduction capabilities onto the mainland, "flattening" those factories would give China a dominant worldwide position in yet another critical industry.

 

[Loadedaxe]

The CCP's motivations have nothing to do with semiconductors: they've been maneuvering to take Taiwan for long before Taiwan even made RAM or any other chips. And now that China has successfully cloned a significant portion of Taiwan's semiconduction capabilities onto the mainland, "flattening" those factories would give China a dominant worldwide position in yet another critical industry.

I agree with your first point completely. 100%

China's interest in Taiwan predates TSMC, RAM and basically the entire modern semiconductor industry. Beijing sees Taiwan primarily as a sovereignty and reunification issue, not as a very large semiconductor shopping trip.

Where I'd pump the brakes a little is the idea that China has effectively cloned enough of Taiwan's semiconductor capability that flattening Taiwan's fabs would automatically hand Beijing global dominance.

China has made enormous progress, especially at mature nodes and increasingly advanced processes. No argument there at all.

But Taiwan's advantage isn't just “some factories China hasn't copied yet.”

It's the entire ecosystem, process technology, engineering talent, advanced packaging, equipment, materials, EDA software, suppliers and customers. A lot of that ecosystem still involves the U.S., Japan, Europe and South Korea.

So if Taiwan's fabs disappeared tomorrow, China wouldn't simply inherit Taiwan's market share.

The more likely immediate result would be a global semiconductor heart attack.

China might emerge relatively stronger afterward, absolutely. But there would be a rather substantial difference between being less damaged than everyone else and suddenly owning the world's semiconductor industry.

I agree, you're right about China's motivation.

I'm just not convinced “flatten Taiwan and become semiconductor king” is quite as clean a business plan as it sounds.

Even Xi probably prefers acquisitions where the factory is still standing afterward.

 

[Endymio]

But Taiwan's advantage isn't just “some factories China hasn't copied yet.”

It's the entire ecosystem, process technology, engineering talent, advanced packaging, equipment, materials, EDA software, suppliers and customers. A lot of that ecosystem still involves the U.S., Japan, Europe and South Korea.

So if Taiwan's fabs disappeared tomorrow, China wouldn't simply inherit Taiwan's market share.

The more likely immediate result would be a global semiconductor heart attack.

Sure: 100%. Which is why China hasn't moved en force yet. They continue their pressure campaign, however, which is why everyone from the International Olympic Committee to world airlines to major Hollywood actors now pretend the country Taiwan already no longer exists. I'd expect that from the IOC weasels, but one would have thought "tough guy" John Cena's testicles weren't quite so shriveled:

 

[Loadedaxe]

Sure: 100%. Which is why China hasn't moved en force yet. They continue their pressure campaign, however, which is why everyone from the International Olympic Committee to world airlines to major Hollywood actors now pretend the country Taiwan already no longer exists. I'd expect that from the IOC weasels, but one would have thought "tough guy" John Cena's testicles weren't quite so shriveled:

Yep, on this one I really don't have much ammunition to fire back.

China's pressure campaign is probably the more interesting story anyway, because it shows why Beijing doesn't necessarily need tanks rolling into Taipei tomorrow to keep advancing its position.

When major airlines start editing “Taiwan” off their websites because Beijing threatens consequences, you've demonstrated quite a bit of power without firing a shot.

And John Cena was an especially painful example.

A man who made a career out of pretending nobody could see him suddenly discovered that 1.4 billion potential movie customers could see him just fine.

To be fair to the IOC, “Chinese Taipei” is the result of an old political compromise, so I wouldn't put all of that at China's feet today. But the end result is still bizarre...Taiwan has its own government, military, currency, elections and passport, yet at the Olympics everyone has to perform this elaborate verbal gymnastics routine pretending we don't quite know what to call the place.

That is soft power doing exactly what soft power is supposed to do.

And,.... that's probably one reason Xi can afford to be patient. If businesses, airlines, celebrities and international organizations gradually modify their behavior to avoid angering Beijing, China gains a little bit of what it wants without accepting the enormous risks of an invasion.

As for Cena's testicles, I'm not qualified to measure those.

I'm sure the CPI has an index for them somewhere.

 

[captaincranky]

As for Cena's testicles, I'm not qualified to measure those.

I'm sure the CPI has an index for them somewhere.

No, that would be found in the CTI, the, "Consumer Testicle Index". But wait, that would be an average across all testicles measured, and not applicable to any specific individual. So, the "CTI" would more "appropriate", if were specifically, "The Cena Testicle Index".

Besides, you're being modest. I'm sure you're qualified, just completely unwilling to do said, "tale of the tape". And that's OK.

BTW, John Cena advertises, for "Hefty bags".

 

[Loadedaxe]

No, that would be found in the CTI, the, "Consumer Testicle Index". But wait, that would be an average across all testicles measured, and not applicable to any specific individual. So, the "CTI" would more "appropriate", if were specifically, "The Cena Testicle Index".

Besides, you're being modest. I'm sure you're qualified, just completely unwilling to do said, "tale of the tape". And that's OK.

BTW, John Cena advertises, for "Hefty bags".

Okay, I concede the point.

The Consumer Testicle Index would clearly suffer from the same aggregation problem as CPI. We can't have Cena's individual measurements being distorted by the broader testicular economy.

So yes, Cena Testicle Index is the scientifically responsible metric.

As for conducting the actual “tale of the tape,” I appreciate your confidence in my qualifications, but I'm going to remain strictly on the statistical analysis side of this research project.

And Cena advertising Hefty bags?

Well now you've completely ruined this discussion.

Because somewhere in the Hefty marketing department there is absolutely someone reading this thread thinking...“Finally. Someone understands the product positioning.”

Hefty, Hefty, Hefty...

I'll leave the rest of that advertising campaign to your imagination.

 

[justarando]

And there it is.

We were discussing inflation, wages, purchasing power and actual economic data. Instead of addressing any of the numbers, you jumped to “Kool-Aid” and COVID vaccines conspiracy.

Yes, increased productivity can contribute to a higher standard of living. Nobody disputed that.

But productivity growth does not magically prove that wages haven't risen since 2009, nor does it turn a roughly 36% loss of purchasing power into the 75% figure he claimed.

If my numbers are wrong, show the numbers that prove it.

Dragging COVID into an inflation discussion isn't a rebuttal. It's just changing the subject when the facts aren't cooperating.

We can debate economics all day, but leave conspiracy bingo, and simple minded insults and replies on reddit.

No you're getting it, hence why I tested you figure out my suspicions about you. No amount discussion while help you because you refuse to see the picture.

 

[Loadedaxe]

No you're getting it, hence why I tested you figure out my suspicions about you. No amount discussion while help you because you refuse to see the picture.

That isn't an argument. That's just a very wordy way of saying, “I can't answer the numbers, so I'm going to pretend I was testing you.”

You were given specific figures on wages, inflation and purchasing power. If they're wrong, correct them with better data.

Instead, you've offered “suspicions,” “the bigger picture,” Kool-Aid references and COVID detours.

That's not insight. That's what people do when they have a conclusion they like but can't support it.

And telling someone they “refuse to see” while refusing to address the evidence in front of you is a pretty impressive bit of accidental self parody.

Bring something next time.

Otherwise, all you've demonstrated is that confidence and education are not the same thing.

 

[justarando]

That isn't an argument. That's just a very wordy way of saying, “I can't answer the numbers, so I'm going to pretend I was testing you.”

You were given specific figures on wages, inflation and purchasing power. If they're wrong, correct them with better data.

Instead, you've offered “suspicions,” “the bigger picture,” Kool-Aid references and COVID detours.

That's not insight. That's what people do when they have a conclusion they like but can't support it.

And telling someone they “refuse to see” while refusing to address the evidence in front of you is a pretty impressive bit of accidental self parody.

Bring something next time.

Otherwise, all you've demonstrated is that confidence and education are not the same thingy

That isn't an argument. That's just a very wordy way of saying, “I can't answer the numbers, so I'm going to pretend I was testing you.”

You were given specific figures on wages, inflation and purchasing power. If they're wrong, correct them with better data.

Instead, you've offered “suspicions,” “the bigger picture,” Kool-Aid references and COVID detours.

That's not insight. That's what people do when they have a conclusion they like but can't support it.

And telling someone they “refuse to see” while refusing to address the evidence in front of you is a pretty impressive bit of accidental self parody.

Bring something next time.

Otherwise, all you've demonstrated is that confidence and education are not the same thing.

You don't understand you're playing their game and you play it as a good goy, but it's unwinnable, you don't seem to get that should not be possible when we are 2.5x more productive and now both mom and dad work full time and yet we don't have the better living standards from the best

But again keep drinking the kool aid, pretend that you well educated instead of indoctrinated, just to be extra clear if you really were that smart you could soleved current problems seen you 2.5 productivity and 2 working parents instead one per household to solve set problems what where already solved in 1970's.

 

[Loadedaxe]

You don't understand you're playing their game and you play it as a good goy, but it's unwinnable, you don't seem to get that should not be possible when we are 2.5x more productive and now both mom and dad work full time and yet we don't have the better living standards from the best

But again keep drinking the kool aid, pretend that you well educated instead of indoctrinated, just to be extra clear if you really were that smart you could soleved current problems seen you 2.5 productivity and 2 working parents instead one per household to solve set problems what where already solved in 1970's.

There it is again.

I give you numbers, and instead of producing better numbers, I get “good goy,” “indoctrinated,” “Kool-Aid” and another declaration that I simply can't see the magnificent bigger picture you've apparently been entrusted with.

That's not economics. That's what happens when an argument runs out of evidence and starts throwing adjectives.

That being said, your underlying point about productivity is actually worth discussing.

Yes, American workers are far more productive than they were decades ago. And yes, there is a legitimate debate over how those productivity gains have been distributed between wages, benefits, profits, investment and capital owners.

That's a serious economic argument.

But “productivity increased, therefore every household should be 2.5 times richer” is not how productivity works.

Productivity measures output per hour. It does not say that every additional dollar of output automatically lands in the employee's paycheck.

And the idea that living standards haven't improved since the 1970s is equally sloppy. Homes have gotten larger, vehicles safer, medicine vastly better, computing and communications transformed, consumer goods more capable, and real household income is higher.

That doesn't mean everything is better.

Housing affordability is worse in many places. Healthcare and education costs are serious problems. Many households need two incomes. Wealth and income gains have not been distributed evenly. Those are all legitimate criticisms.

But notice what I just did? I bet you didn't.

I acknowledged the parts supported by reality without needing to pretend every contrary statistic is propaganda.

If your argument is really that productivity gains have been distributed unfairly, then say that and bring the evidence. I'll happily discuss it.

But calling everyone who asks for numbers “indoctrinated” isn't seeing the bigger picture.

It's just refusing to focus on the bigger picture.

And considering you've now called me a Kool-Aid drinker, indoctrinated and apparently too stupid to “solve” the economy, I'll return one observation...

Being suspicious of everything doesn't make you educated.

It just means you've replaced analysis with a personality trait.

 

[captaincranky]

You don't understand you're playing their game and you play it as a good goy, but it's unwinnable, you don't seem to get that should not be possible when we are 2.5x more productive and now both mom and dad work full time and yet we don't have the better living standards from the best

But again keep drinking the kool aid, pretend that you well educated instead of indoctrinated, just to be extra clear if you really were that smart you could soleved current problems seen you 2.5 productivity and 2 working parents instead one per household to solve set problems what where already solved in 1970's.

I have just a couple of quick questions. Since you obviously know a great deal about everything, riddle me this one; who exactly is they? You can either come up with an exact answer, or cop to being blessed with, "paranoid personality disorder".

I've been trying to figure that out since the days of patched blue jeans, and $15.00 an ounce weed. Wow whee, those were the days. ay? Given the low price it was very easy to over indulge. But you know what, back then, I was certain I knew the answer; "everyone other than myself was a, 'they'". ("But I was so much older then, I'm younger than that now". (Bob Dylan))

As for, "taking the jab", I'm not afraid of needles, nor do I think I'm indestructible How about you? I'm "programmed" to the extent that in spite of the fact I do everything I possibly can avoid people who share your bravado, abundance of self supposed knowledge and distorted world view IRL, I let "them" stick me anyway. My rational, you ask? Well it was free, it didn't hurt, and I'm way too old to suddenly develop autism. That was a win,win IMO. But I could be wrong and you could be right. I guess it's pretty much a given that you're right. I "eagerly await" your confirmation on that point.

Just out of idle curiosity, how many websites have you been banned from, before you decided to bestow the grace, honor, and blessing of your presence upon this one?

BTW, I'm hoping you might do us a tiny favor. A bit of proofreading and corrections on "proclamations" such as this >"you could soleved current"< would lead us away from drawing the rash, impolite and obviously erroneous conclusion that you're functionally illiterate.

Happy Sunday, and a bit fat Cheers...!

 

[captaincranky]

@Loadedaxe My good man, take note of the, "did you take the jab" comment. It heralds the forthcoming of a "discussion", you can't win. It's a holdover from the covid era. I spent page after page being forced to justify my decision to get "the jab". Nothing would sway the opinion of the anti-vax crew. Not even their yellow journalists/leaders dropping dead from the virus, no logical argument or gentle coaxing, could penetrate such deeply ingrained belief systems.

It all boils down to a simple, unanswerable question; just exactly who is the "they" that indoctrinated you, me, us, and "them" so thoroughly.

While being paranoid is merely a 'symptom', it can be indicative of a deeper mental illness, paranoid personality disorder..

I'd humbly suggest you take a close look at the syntax of anyone with which you engage in a serious discussion.While formal English is pretty much a lost art, lack of it can betray a lack of education, which further exposes a lack of willingness to be influenced by, or even entertain the opinions of others.

In news on the inflation front, the CPI dropped a tenth to 4.1%. Good news ay? Closer to home, a local business, "Murray's Sea Food", was forced to close its doors after 40 years in business. Why, you might ask? Well, the leg that broke its back, was that of the king crab. The owner stated that king crab legs were $16 to $18 dollars a pound, and had now jumped to $48.00. That more than validates my coffee price complaint. Sadly, it also is perhaps indicative of other more serious woes.such as over fishing, climate change, greed on the part boat captain or the suppliers, the price increase of diesel and well, mass deportation of the boat crews, any and all of which are entirely plausible and/or possible. You know, the old "supply and demand" paradigm. The less that are boated, the higher the price. OTOH, the CPI (Canky Price Index) stayed about the same. I'm not a seafood person, and I never really go out for dinner.

As for the "increase in productivity of American workers", that's largely mechanization and mythology. We had an article involving a TSMC fab being built here in the states. TSMC management couldn't deal with them, and had to bring some of their own staff over from Taiwan to get anything done.

So basta ya, it's time to turn off my Lava lamps off and hit the hay.

Cheers.

 

[Loadedaxe]

@Loadedaxe My good man, take note of the, "did you take the jab" comment. It heralds the forthcoming of a "discussion", you can't win. It's a holdover from the covid era. I spent page after page being forced to justify my decision to get "the jab". Nothing would sway the opinion of the anti-vax crew. Not even their yellow journalists/leaders dropping dead from the virus, no logical argument or gentle coaxing, could penetrate such deeply ingrained belief systems.

It all boils down to a simple, unanswerable question; just exactly who is the "they" that indoctrinated you, me, us, and "them" so thoroughly.

While being paranoid is merely a 'symptom', it can be indicative of a deeper mental illness, paranoid personality disorder..

I'd humbly suggest you take a close look at the syntax of anyone with which you engage in a serious discussion.While formal English is pretty much a lost art, lack of it can betray a lack of education, which further exposes a lack of willingness to be influenced by, or even entertain the opinions of others.

In news on the inflation front, the CPI dropped a tenth to 4.1%. Good news ay? Closer to home, a local business, "Murray's Sea Food", was forced to close its doors after 40 years in business. Why, you might ask? Well, the leg that broke its back, was that of the king crab. The owner stated that king crab legs were $16 to $18 dollars a pound, and had now jumped to $48.00. That more than validates my coffee price complaint. Sadly, it also is perhaps indicative of other more serious woes.such as over fishing, climate change, greed on the part boat captain or the suppliers, the price increase of diesel and well, mass deportation of the boat crews, any and all of which are entirely plausible and/or possible. You know, the old "supply and demand" paradigm. The less that are boated, the higher the price. OTOH, the CPI (Canky Price Index) stayed about the same. I'm not a seafood person, and I never really go out for dinner.

As for the "increase in productivity of American workers", that's largely mechanization and mythology. We had an article involving a TSMC fab being built here in the states. TSMC management couldn't deal with them, and had to bring some of their own staff over from Taiwan to get anything done.

So basta ya, it's time to turn off my Lava lamps off and hit the hay.

Cheers.

My good Captain, message received !

The moment a discussion about inflation, wages and productivity starts showing the same symptoms as the old ‘did you take the jab?’ debates”, I suppose that is the intellectual equivalent of the check engine light coming on.

At that point, we're no longer comparing data. We're entering the enchanted forest where every inconvenient statistic was manufactured by “they,” every institution is compromised, and disagreement is merely proof that the indoctrination worked.

A wonderfully efficient system, really. No evidence can ever disprove it because contrary evidence simply becomes additional evidence of the conspiracy. You have to admire the engineering.

Your seafood example also makes the point nicely. CPI can say 4.1% while a 40-year business gets hit with a key input going from $18 to $48 a pound and simply says, “Well, that's enough of that.”

Averages are useful, but they don't pay invoices.

And that is probably the finer distinction we've been circling around this whole time... national inflation can moderate while individual households and businesses are still getting absolutely clubbed by particular categories.

As for continuing certain other discussions, I think I'll take your advice.

There is little point bringing a calculator to a séance.

Cheers. Oh, and my Lava Lamp is off too!

 

[captaincranky]

There is little point bringing a calculator to a séance.

Priceless..