That’s not how things work.
My uncle was a senior analyst in military intelligence—one of those guys standing three rows back when the president was being briefed in the war room. Over dinner one night (and after a bottle of wine), he got a little loose-lipped. Before his wife shut him down for treading into classified territory, he talked about China’s capabilities versus ours. His general point was simple: if you’ve heard of it, it doesn’t matter. The U.S. military is usually 20–30 years ahead, technologically, of whatever’s publicly known.
This was twenty years ago, and he’s since passed, but I believed every word. This was a man who, even in retirement, had a government-grade surveillance system monitoring his property line.
If that’s true, then superintelligent AI isn’t something “on the horizon”—it’s already here, and not in the hands of Meta or Elon Musk. The U.S. doesn’t wait for private industry to invent such things; if it’s deemed too dangerous for civilians, it gets quietly folded into the black budget.
So when we talk about AI and geopolitics, we should leave military capability out of the conversation—they’re not even playing the same game.