Nvidia roadmap shows GeForce RTX 5000 cards set for 2025 launch

[midian182]

Forward-looking: We've seen a few rumors recently claiming that Nvidia's successor to the RTX 4000 series, expected to be called the RTX 5000, will arrive next year. But it seems that the next-gen cards aren't going to be with us until 2025, according to team green's latest roadmap.

Nvidia has previously released a new generation of graphics cards every two years or so. With Ada Lovelace having arrived in October 2022, the successor was expected next year, but it seems Nvidia is increasing the cadence to 3 years.

HardwareLuxx editor Andreas Schilling shared a roadmap revealed by Nvidia during a presentation on its H100 GPUs. It shows the company's future products and their launch dates.

Previous reports claimed that the Hopper Next architecture, which the roadmap shows arriving next year, could be used in both enterprise and gaming cards. But the arrival of Ada Lovelace-Next the following year kills off those claims.

Nvidia didn't reveal the official name of the Lovelace successor. A lot of people claim it will be Blackwell, but that could be the successor to Hopper.

Delaying the release of the RTX 5000 series by a year likely makes sense from Nvidia's point of view. Lovelace has been heavily criticized for its high prices, especially during these times of economic hardship. Nvidia might be hoping that the economy will have improved by 2025, making an expensive graphics card less of a luxury that few can justify buying.

NVIDIA published a roadmap showing what to expect in the coming years for DPU, CPU, GPU and Superchip. Hopper Next aka Blackwell seams to be a H1 2024 announcement while Grace Next and Ada Lovelace Next will be released 2025.https://t.co/0KvSu8IHSp pic.twitter.com/2USteMBBQi

– Andreas Schilling ðºð¦ (@aschilling) June 27, 2023

Nvidia is still launching RTX 4000 cards, too, such as the RTX 4060 and 4060 Ti, and we could see more lower and higher-end cards released in this range, such as an RTX 4090 Ti.

The other big factor is that Nvidia doesn't need to rush out a new product line when it is making so much money from AI. The company has forecast that it will make $11 billion in revenue in the next quarter, a year-on-year rise of around 80%, all thanks to the massive demand for the likes of its H100 GPU. The arrival of Hopper Next in 2024 will doubtlessly give its bottom line another boost.

It's been rumored that the next-gen GeForce cards will offer a massive performance uplift over the RTX 4000 series. There has been talk of a 2X improvement, which seems more likely given Lovelace will be three years old by the time they arrive. Don't be surprised if ray tracing turns out to be a big focus, and, hopefully, Nvidia will have learned the lessons of the current generation by giving the cards more VRAM.

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https://www.techspot.com/news/99225-nvidia-roadmap-shows-rtx-5000-cards-set-2025.html

 

[brucek]

It's probably true, or on the other hand, maybe they're just trying to discourage people from sitting out this generation.

If AMD is still planning on the two year cycle, this could end up being a nice window for them.

 

[takaozo]

No they just want to make the most out of old and current inventory. And just wait for TSMC 2nm node to increase GPU's prices to the moon.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmc-expected-to-charge-25000usd-per-2nm-wafer

 

[Burty117]

No they just want to make the most out of old and current inventory. And just wait for TSMC 2nm node to increase GPU's prices to the moon.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmc-expected-to-charge-25000usd-per-2nm-wafer

That's not how it works though, a Wafer can hold roughly 90 4090's.
$12,095 %90 = $134.38

Considering the 4090 die isn't exactly small, $134.38 isn't unreasonable. Nvidia probably have a deal with TSMC as well so are probably paying slightly less per wafer.

Lets use your 2nm pricing as an example as well:
$24,570 %90 = $273

So if Nvidia kept their die size and profit margins the same, a 5090 would cost an extra $138.62.

Is a price increase of $138.62 really "to the moon"?

Also worth remembering, they will get 4090 performance out of a much smaller die by dropping down to 2nm as they can fit more into a smaller space. So they may even go with a smaller die for 5090 removing that price increase entirely.

 

[takaozo]

That's not how it works though, a Wafer can hold roughly 90 4090's.
$12,095 %90 = $134.38

Considering the 4090 die isn't exactly small, $134.38 isn't unreasonable. Nvidia probably have a deal with TSMC as well so are probably paying slightly less per wafer.

Lets use your 2nm pricing as an example as well:
$24,570 %90 = $273

So if Nvidia kept their die size and profit margins the same, a 5090 would cost an extra $138.62.

Is a price increase of $138.62 really "to the moon"?

Also worth remembering, they will get 4090 performance out of a much smaller die by dropping down to 2nm as they can fit more into a smaller space. So they may even go with a smaller die for 5090 removing that price increase entirely.

Are we still talking about Nvidia?

 

[neeyik]

No they just want to make the most out of old and current inventory. And just wait for TSMC 2nm node to increase GPU's prices to the moon.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/tsmc-expected-to-charge-25000usd-per-2nm-wafer

It's worth noting that these are estimates of TSMC's average selling price per wafer. Prices will drop for large orders placed months in advance but will increase for complex fabrications comprising a larger-than-average number of layers (which in turn gets offset by the use of sub-nodes, e.g. N4/N6 is cheaper than N5/N7 because fewer masks are used).

It may be a case that Nvidia will prefer to use N3P or N3X for its next consumer GPU lineup, and use N2P exclusively for its data center lineup, as N2's real benefit over N3 is a significant reduction in power consumption.

 

[Neatfeatguy]

"There has been talk of a 2X improvement, which seems more likely given Lovelace will be three years old by the time they arrive."

Hahahaha! That's a good one.

I think you meant to write that DLSS4 will provide a 2x uplift in performance over Lovelace as it doesn't run any DLSS version when they're compared.

 

[llamapanda]

It's probably true, or on the other hand, maybe they're just trying to discourage people from sitting out this generation.

If AMD is still planning on the two year cycle, this could end up being a nice window for them.

It will be interesting to see how developers react with regard to what features/performance they include in games if they know there is little chance of new higher-spec nVidia hardware on the horizon for the expected lifespan of their title.

It's definitely AMD's chance to shine if they get their new SKUs right in a market with no real competition expected for another year. However nVidia can afford to buy back any dip in market share with loss-leading MSRPs on the 40x0 range and simply price AMD into a corner. Could be exciting times ahead for anyone needing an upgrade by then. Like me!

 

[takaozo]

Until then AD107 aka 4060 reviews are online !!

 

[NicktheWVAHick]

That should give me enough time to start saving now.

 

[SirDigby]

I'm planning my upgrade/ full rebuild for 2025/2026 anyway, depends how much my kid on the way ruins my finances!
Until then, my 3600X+RTX2070Super is serving pretty well, even at 4K as I'm happy playing at 30FPS on all but shooters.

 

[Neatfeatguy]

I'm planning my upgrade/ full rebuild for 2025/2026 anyway, depends how much my kid on the way ruins my finances!
Until then, my 3600X+RTX2070Super is serving pretty well, even at 4K as I'm happy playing at 30FPS on all but shooters.

A lot. They cost a crap ton - kids, that is.

At least around me, if you put your infant into daycare, you're spending around $360 a week (give or take). That'll be roughly $18k a year for daycare service. MN, of course, it is one of the most expensive daycare states, maybe yours doesn't cost so much (hopefully that's the case for you).

If you can't breastfeed, you could be spending upwards of $1k+ for formula for the first year.

Diapers, these can be tricky. You could find ones you like (price and performance), but they could cause skin irritation and you're looking, looking, looking until you find ones that work. Or you might get lucky and get ones that don't cause irritation right away. Depending on your kid, you could easily spend upwards of $1k for diapers the first year.

Don't forget you'll need to buy clothes and also add the dependent to your health insurance which may cause a premium increase. Also, the need for things such as the crib, stroller, car seat (maybe multiple if you have two vehicles and swapping between the cars isn't possible - maybe you drop the kid off at daycare in the morning and wife picks the kid up, you both need your own car seat and/or base).

Don't forget about the hospital costs for having the kid if your insurance doesn't cover it all.

You might think it gets better, but it doesn't really. Right now the average cost in the US to raise a kid to 18 costs nearly $300k. If you're making 6 figures+ it may not impact you much and getting a new system may be easy....or you may be scraping together what you can to get new hardware.

Best of luck to you.

 

[SirDigby]

A lot. They cost a crap ton - kids, that is.

At least around me, if you put your infant into daycare, you're spending around $360 a week (give or take). That'll be roughly $18k a year for daycare service. MN, of course, it is one of the most expensive daycare states, maybe yours doesn't cost so much (hopefully that's the case for you).

If you can't breastfeed, you could be spending upwards of $1k+ for formula for the first year.

Diapers, these can be tricky. You could find ones you like (price and performance), but they could cause skin irritation and you're looking, looking, looking until you find ones that work. Or you might get lucky and get ones that don't cause irritation right away. Depending on your kid, you could easily spend upwards of $1k for diapers the first year.

Don't forget you'll need to buy clothes and also add the dependent to your health insurance which may cause a premium increase. Also, the need for things such as the crib, stroller, car seat (maybe multiple if you have two vehicles and swapping between the cars isn't possible - maybe you drop the kid off at daycare in the morning and wife picks the kid up, you both need your own car seat and/or base).

Don't forget about the hospital costs for having the kid if your insurance doesn't cover it all.

You might think it gets better, but it doesn't really. Right now the average cost in the US to raise a kid to 18 costs nearly $300k. If you're making 6 figures+ it may not impact you much and getting a new system may be easy....or you may be scraping together what you can to get new hardware.

Best of luck to you.

Thank you so much for the advise my friend!
I am very lucky that much of the cost you described is somewhat alleviated in the UK, at least with regards to healthcare and childcare, with healthcare being free (paid by taxes) even if it is on its knees by years of government cuts and COVID catchup, and with daycare we get tax-free childcare (up to £500 per quarter) and my nipper is due to start daycare just after the 15hr free childcare kicks in for over 9 months old (this is going up to 30hrs in Sept 2025, prev. 30hrs was just for 3&4 y/o, this is gonna save us a tonne of money, est. £1300/month, this cuts it down to about £750.

 

[EdmondRC]

Almost definitely looking at an RTX 40 'super' series with more VRAM then.

 

[punctualturn]

Starting the hype train early I see.

Dear Leader Jensen is proud.

 

[GamerNerves]

AMD is not up to speed to be any faster to release their next gen, given how they are practically still preparing the whole RX 7000 line-up (even the already released models concerning drivers), so I tend to believe this article. Since the Lovelace chips are pretty small in size and we already know how fast the architecture can be, there is plenty of room for yet more and bigger chips that out do the current ones, so I fully expect a refreshed line-up next year at the latest. It's not a bad idea to wait till, for example, RTX 4070 gets beefed up perhaps having 16 GBs of memory and simply more CUDA cores. Nvidia has no reason to rush but it's nasty that the prices fall so slow.

 

[pencea]

That should give me enough time to start saving now.

Even then it wouldn't be enough. Nvidia will charge two arms and two legs for it.

 

[toooooot]

We need to keep sales low, secondhand GPUs, infrequent upgrades.
Renaming entire lower tier to a one step up should never be forgiven.
But it seems, all the people who found 4000 to ridiculous will
probably upgrade anyways because they skipped current gen.

 

[takaozo]

We need to keep sales low, secondhand GPUs, infrequent upgrades.
Renaming entire lower tier to a one step up should never be forgiven.
But it seems, all the people who found 4000 to ridiculous will
probably upgrade anyways because they skipped current gen.

Renaming schema one tier up has nothing to do with pumping prices two tiers up. Never forgive and never forget.

 

[VcoreLeone]

It's probably true, or on the other hand, maybe they're just trying to discourage people from sitting out this generation.

If AMD is still planning on the two year cycle, this could end up being a nice window for them.

amd rarely take chances that nvidia give them. when 6800/xt were great options to buy vs 3080/3070, they didn't have enough stock. now rdna3 goes back in performance, 80cu 6950xt beats 80cu 7900gre.Plus it's taking them forever to release the upper mid range, and it looks like 7800xt might actually lose to 6800xt.