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Our take on AMD Zen 2 CPU and Navi GPU rumors

By Scorpus · 69 replies
Dec 8, 2018
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  1. All this information first appeared in an AdoredTV video, who has leaked a few things in the past. The Navi-related GPU rumors are probably the best point to start. The basics are: AMD is allegedly planning to release Navi-based RX 3080, RX 3070 and RX 3060 cards. The RX 3080 will be about 15% faster than Vega 64 at 150W, allowing it to compete with the RTX 2070, and it’ll be priced at $250. The RX 3070 will be around Vega 56 performance for $200, and the RX 3060 will be a 75W GPU at $130 competing with the GTX 1060.

    Now at first glance, this sounds amazing. A $250 GPU from AMD competing with a $500 GPU from Nvidia. That sounds... well, it sounds unrealistic.

    Starting with pricing, companies do not finalize price of their products this far ahead of launch. Even if we’re talking about a full unveil at CES, that show is roughly a month away. It’s quite common for us to receive a GPU or CPU under NDA maybe a week in advance, and it will only be a few days before launch that pricing is finalized. People in the industry have mentioned to us that typically pricing is decided about a week before launch.

    While these sorts of products are designed around rough price targets – for example, mid-range, high-end, enterprise – the products are often finalized without an exact price point. The company would then figure out how much the product will cost to make based on yields and potential binning, factor in a margin, and only then decide on a price near launch after also factoring in current market conditions. So while it’s not out of the question to have rough specifications finalized well before launch, pricing and even final clock speeds often aren’t decided until much closer to the actual release.

    Then for these GPUs, the pricing simply does not make sense from a number of angles. AMD may want to undercut Nvidia with their next generation of GPUs, that would make sense and they’ve done it in the past. But no sane company would choose to create a product and sell it for half the price of their only other competitor. So in our opinion it’s ridiculous to suggest AMD will release a Navi GPU at $250 that delivers performance equivalent to Nvidia’s $500 RTX 2070. It makes zero business sense and no executive at AMD would ever sign off on that.

    If a company wanted to undercut its competitor you’d maybe be looking at a 20% lower price at best, so that would mean AMD coming in with an RTX 2070 equivalent for around $400. That would be more reasonable. But AMD isn’t going to sacrifice juicy margins just for the sake of “destroying” Nvidia. They’re a business, they want to make money, so they’re going to price their products with current market conditions in mind.

    But that’s not the only thing that makes no sense. AMD literally just released the Radeon RX 590 at $280. And now we have a leak suggesting they will announce a product in a month that is twice as fast, for a lower price? That is completely ludicrous.

    The only part of this leak that is more reasonable is the TDP and memory configuration, even perhaps the naming, though we cannot be sure any of it is true.

    AMD has publicly stated that 7nm is allowing the company to produce products that deliver the same performance at half the power consumption. So for the supposed RX 3070, 7nm should allow AMD to create a product that performs around the same level as the 210W Vega 56, at 120W. But pricing it at $200? I don’t think so.

    Then we have the 3rd generation Ryzen products. The leak talks about 10 separate products, ranging from the Ryzen 3 3300, up to the Ryzen 9 3850X. You’d think AMD might go with a naming scheme like that, so we’re off to a good start.

    Most of these CPUs sound like they are within the realms of possibility. Entry-level parts getting a bump to 6 cores and 12 threads. Ryzen 5 reportedly becomes 8 cores and 16 threads, Ryzen 7 goes up to 12 cores and 24 threads, then Ryzen 9 comes in offering 16 cores and 32 threads. These designs are suggested to use AMD’s 14nm I/O die in conjunction with one or two 7nm Zen 2 dies, which sounds reasonable going on what AMD has shown for their upcoming server products.

    But when you look a little closer, things don’t really line up.

    Take this one for example, the Ryzen 7 3700X. This is claimed to be a 12 core part with a 4.2 GHz base clock, 5.0 GHz boost, at 105W. But if we look back at 2nd-gen Ryzen, the Ryzen 7 2700X is also a 105W part, but only includes 8 cores, a base clock of 3.7 GHz and a max boost of 4.3 GHz. So the leak is essentially claiming that 3rd gen Ryzen is providing four extra cores PLUS an additional 500 MHz on the base clock, within the same 105W power envelope. So 50% more cores and a 14% higher base clock. Now we have to remember what AMD said at their Zen 2 unveil, that 7nm is allowing them to achieve upwards of 1.25x the performance at the same power consumption. So does it sound realistic that AMD would be able to put in 50% more cores and clock them all 14% higher within the same TDP?

    The TDP has never been a great metric and AMD’s previous Ryzen line-ups have also had a few oddities, but I could list several more strange things about this line-up that just don’t sound right when measuring up the clock speeds and TDPs, and don’t align with what AMD has done in the past. Like how there’s a 4 GHz 8-core chip in this line-up at 95W, but then a 16-core chip at 4.3 GHz is only 135W. It doesn't seem to add up.

    On top of that, there’s one key element of this leak that makes the least sense... the unveil date at CES.

    With CEO Lisa Su taking the stage at CES to talk about 7nm products, many are now expecting AMD to do a big unveil of these products, but from what we are hearing that simply isn’t the case. And by “from what we’re hearing” I actually mean from what we are not hearing.

    Whenever AMD releases a new line of CPUs or GPUs they host a Tech Day, where all the enthusiast media gather to learn about these new products. It’s at these events we usually hear about the products in detail and then there are several NDA dates afterwards for announcements, reviews and so forth. This is the way AMD has been operating for the last few years.

    So far there is no planned Tech Day for AMD at CES. In fact, at last year’s CES AMD did host a Tech Day, it’s where they announced the Ryzen APU and a few new Ryzen Mobile SKUs. But we heard about that event as early as September, so nearly four months ahead of time, which is fairly typical for planning these sorts of trips, so if there was a Tech Day, we would have heard about it by now.

    AMD are planning a few smaller things at CES this year, there will be a press reception and meetings available, typical sort of stuff at these major events. But if there’s no Tech Day, you can take it to the bank that there won’t be a major unveil of a full product line-up. Now, it’s likely that Lisa Su will take the stage at CES and announce something considering they have this big keynote, but I’d only be expecting a product teaser at this stage.

    Here’s another example. At Computex 2018 AMD did not host a Tech Day, but they had a press conference. There, they announced 2nd gen Threadripper but only talked about a handful of specs – 12nm, up to 32 cores, and some ballpark specs. There were no official product names, no finalized specs and certainly no prices. I think that’s the sort of thing we can expect at CES, not some massive unveil of an entire line-up of CPUs and GPUs with pricing, specs and everything else.

    AMD has reiterated that the first 7nm Zen 2 products will be their 2nd generation Epyc CPUs, which haven’t been officially launched yet. So it’s unlikely that we’ll see a full 3rd gen Ryzen unveil until after the newest Epyc server chips are out the door.

    Rumors and leaks are certainly part of what makes following the tech industry so fun, but it's important to remember that much of the time, those leaks don't entirely pan out. In this case, there are key elements that fail the common sense test and don’t align with AMD’s previously stated claims.

    Permalink to story.

     
  2. Vulcanproject

    Vulcanproject TS Evangelist Posts: 776   +1,134

    AdoredTV usually just posts a load of speculative rubbish to gain hits and channel traffic. He knows this. It's a heavily pro AMD/anti Intel/Nvidia channel anyway, has been for years.

    Take anything said on it with a dump truck full of salt. Better yet, don't listen to anything said on it at all. Wait for better respected sources.
     
    codgerface, Reehahs, UaPro and 5 others like this.
  3. poohbear

    poohbear TS Evangelist Posts: 326   +227

    Thank you for talking sense. The other sites reporting these rumours actually entertain them as a possibility for click bait. A $250 RTX 2070 competitor? Who the hell believes such nonsense?!
     
  4. BSim500

    BSim500 TS Evangelist Posts: 623   +1,256

    Honestly Tim, the worst thing you can do is feed these sad morons who make up fake charts with more clickbait attention by linking to them. I'd rather see Techspot stick to the facts as and when they're officially released. People come here for the in-depth reviews, not fake WCCFTech style "rumor news".

    Edit: Techspot could be last to review something and I'd still read it if they tested like 25-30 games instead of 6x. There's simply no rush to be first when it's quality / depth that counts, not speed. I wish mainstream news would do the same but all I can think of there is the SNL "CNN Pregnancy Test" skit...
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2018
    Reehahs and Julio Franco like this.
  5. emmzo

    emmzo TS Addict Posts: 185   +79

    Generating hype over mediocre products? It`s not like we don`t know AMD has been doing that for a while now. Also, that pricing plays very well into the narrative of "greedy NVidia", so bonus points for that. Thanks for the article, you nailed it guys.
     
    Sausagemeat likes this.
  6. misor

    misor TS Evangelist Posts: 1,397   +303

    me. I can dream, can't I? ;)

    on a serious note, I am waiting for the arrival of my AMD RX 580 8GB GDDR5, a replacement for my nvidia G210 512MB DDR3 gpu.
     
    toooooot likes this.
  7. SNA1970

    SNA1970 TS Rookie

    Well Tim, the unrealistic thing is Nvidia Pricing not the AMD GPU rumored prices.

    For example, the RTX 2070 should be priced $250 if compared to the move from Gen to Gen 10 Nvidia Prices.

    The GTX 1060 is almost same speed of GTX 980 and for was priced $250

    The RTX 2070 is almost same speed of GTX 1080 and should also be priced $250, and it should be named RTX 2060 and not RTX 2070.

    But Nvidia chose to rise the prices.
    AMD rumored Prices are RIGHT.
     
  8. Brahman05

    Brahman05 TS Member Posts: 24   +13

    I mostly agree, but your price expectations are a bit off. The 2080ti is ridiculous, the 2080 price gouges, and the 2070 is overpriced. But to expect the 2070 to be $250 is a bit unrealistic, $350-400 would be the better pricing gen to gen. Just wait though, I remember Nvidia price gouging the 10 series initially before pricing returned to sanity. If anything blame current corporate culture and AMD not having anything close to the rtx line. Nvidia has to make their bottom line somehow and the faster they can the faster they can move on to the next architecture internally to prep it for release.
     
    Reehahs, Clamyboy74 and Evernessince like this.
  9. Dextruction5

    Dextruction5 TS Member

    My main question is why would AMD release a 12 and 16 core product that directly competes with their own threadripper 2 lineup for a lower price? Surely AMD doesn't think people want x399 motherboards that much, and so I think this leak is incorrect, as AMD would be basically shooting themselves in the foot with this release.
     
    Sausagemeat likes this.
  10. Lionvibez

    Lionvibez TS Evangelist Posts: 1,477   +644

    You cannot claim any of it as RIGHT you don't work for AMD or any of their retailers.
    So yours is an opinion just like the rest based on a rumor.
     
  11. deksman2

    deksman2 TS Rookie

    Wait, why would AMD rumoured GPU prices be unrealistic and 'ridiculous'?

    For one thing, we know that NV Turing generation GPU's are heavily overpriced, and it wouldn't be the first time AMD offered comparable/better products for half the price.
    Look at Ryzen for example.
    It delivered similar/comparable/better performance vs Intel for practically half the cost and it also forced Intel into overdrive by having them make higher core CPU's at higher frequencies (at the expense of power draw and looming inefficiencies because Intel is now forcing high frequencies to 'keep the performance crown' - and to a degree they can get away with it as their node is better suited for high frequencies than GLOFO nodes).
    Intel's pricing of their own lineup remains atrocious for the most part, and AMD is still the better value either way in productivity oriented tasks, and offers a better upgrade path.

    In the case of data centre, EPYC (server part) is arguably superior to Xenon's in every way and cost up to 3x less.

    Factoring in Nvidia price gauging on Turing, and the premise that 7nm TSMC might offer better yields (as the dies will also be very small in comparison), its not that far fetched for AMD to surpass Nvidia this time around and that the rumour ends up accurate.

    I actually find it ridiculous that reviewer websites like these do not factor in numerous other things when writing about upcoming hardware releases.

    Yes, take it with a pinch of salt, but to say its 'ridiculous' or 'impossible' only demonstrates ignorance and ignores what AMD did before.
     
  12. Maxiking

    Maxiking TS Booster Posts: 59   +76

    It has been already confirmed to be a prank lol.

    AdoredTV got rekt.

    Words to remember: "As I predicted" rest in pepperoni AdoredTV 2018.
     
    Sausagemeat and BSim500 like this.
  13. kvorshk

    kvorshk TS Rookie

    Every time someone brings up Common Sense I tune out. You know there is no such thing as common sense right? Its a stupid phrase that means you are coming at the topic biased.
     
  14. kvorshk

    kvorshk TS Rookie

    God what a silly thing to even think. Every generation of CPU makes the last obselete. They are going to do it weather its intended or not. So why not do it in a way that might bring the company back? This is all plausible. Its called a hail mary to keep a company alive.
     
    Charles Olson likes this.
  15. cliffordcooley

    cliffordcooley TS Guardian Fighter Posts: 11,579   +5,139

    You are absolutely right. That is what diversity has brought us.

    On a side note, I would like to think it is common sense. If you touch a hot stove, you will get burned.
     
  16. Evernessince

    Evernessince TS Evangelist Posts: 4,166   +3,769

    Um, just like to point out that he was the one who correctly leaked the RTX naming, among other things. You say he's biased but can you point out any examples of where he should of been critical of AMD but wasn't? His review of the Vega cards did not pull any punches nor did any of his comments on some of their shenanigans. If he's going to be called a fanboy for pointing out all the crappy things Nvidia and Intel have done this year, then I guess 90% of the people over on the Intel and Nvidia reddit are also fanboys. Don't blame adored simply because Intel and Nvidia has been objectively shitty lately.

    It's actually possible given Lisa Sue's strategy has been to undercut the competition. $250 is actually normal for that price bracket, it only seems crazy by Nvidia's currently insane pricing.

    Not if it's one of those safe touch electric stoves. Just a point that common sense can vary. It would be common sense to not have 100 bills hanging out of your pocket in a bad neighborhood but not so much in a gated community.
     
  17. cliffordcooley

    cliffordcooley TS Guardian Fighter Posts: 11,579   +5,139

    Not so safe, if it is a hot stove. I don't know anything about the safe to touch stoves. But if it is hot, it is hot.
     
  18. Evernessince

    Evernessince TS Evangelist Posts: 4,166   +3,769

     
    Charles Olson and TempleOrion like this.
  19. cliffordcooley

    cliffordcooley TS Guardian Fighter Posts: 11,579   +5,139

    So its not a hot stove. Induction seems pretty cool though. Damn I wish that didn't sound like a pun.
     
    Evernessince likes this.
  20. Kashim

    Kashim TS Addict Posts: 151   +145

    "In this column we'll through them and give our perspective on the matter."

    There's a two letter word missing from this sentence. :)
     
    Charles Olson and TempleOrion like this.
  21. SawyerB

    SawyerB TS Rookie

    Honestly, it's unfair to say that's he's heavy anti-anything for an unfair reason. Intel sold 4 core CPUs for 10 years at the same price even when they were about 5X cheaper to make. Nvidia is selling GPUs at insane prices and has been incredibly monopolistic.

    He bought Intel CPUs before Ryzen came out. He has reviewed multiple Nvidia graphics cards.

    What he minds is clearly shitty practices. He doesn't go around claiming the Rx 590 is a great value GPU or suggest you buy FX CPUs at $100 instead of a modern I5 at $200. He just has fun guessing at the future of the market. You don't have to believe that he's even close to correct about anything, but it's very unfair to act like he shills or anything else like that.
     
  22. noname

    noname TS Enthusiast Posts: 22   +29

    Those Navi GPU prices might happen if the die is small and yields big.
    16/32 AM4 Ryzen is possible since they can fit 2 x 8/16 chiplets and an I/O die in same package.


    Since Epyc Rome is 64/128 has 8 x 8/16 chiplets it doesn't make sense to sell 8/12/16 core Threadrippers and waste all that space with max 2 chiplets. My guess is that new Threadripper will be 24/32/48/64 cores
     
    Charles Olson likes this.
  23. m3tavision

    m3tavision TS Evangelist Posts: 320   +211

    The author didn't entertain the idea at all, it was strait naysaying..
    When in fact, this rumor is 100% plausible and that AMD could be preparing these GPU chips as we speak. Dr Su already gave us the metrics going from 12nm Global to 7nm Samsung. And logically these rumored 3k series gpus would be a chip, half the size of vega, with 50% less energy usage. Just as Dr Su had said in her keynote with Instinct and illustrated by AMD'slides.

    The techspot Author never mentions the actual possibility, nor that Dr Su showed us MI60 and said it was one, of two GPUs they have taped out & are releasing in short time.

    Dr Su also said they worked out a deal with Global to maintain their 12nm process and refine it for market needs. Hence the 580/590s... a short 6 month run.
    Not saying the rumors are true, I am only stating they are entirely plausible and based on facts.
     
  24. Tantor

    Tantor TS Enthusiast Posts: 47   +67

    Very true. People are going to LOVE it. It's called an 'upgrade path' and anyone who bought a Threadripper or Ryzen can take advantage of the new technology.
     
    Charles Olson and ShObiT like this.
  25. shakattack

    shakattack TS Rookie

    I hate rumors but like Dr. Su recently said "market share market share market share"

    The products themselves are believable. E.g. Techpot says that's it's not possible to have 50% more cores and 14% clock increase. However keep in mind that the clock speed boost may only be for half the cores. Also TSMC claims 7nm is 40% power saving and 20% faster. This roughly means that it's possible for an 8-core Ryzen at 4.3GHz to run at 65W instead of 105W and be clocked at 5GHz all cores. These are TSMCs claims per Wikipedia. So Id say it's not unrealistic to offer 4 extra cores with the extra 40W of TDP headroom. Don't compare this to Epyc which is a chiplet design and requires other optimizations to provide the 2X performance increase by doubling total cores.

    If AMD decides to reduce price to capture market share I think it could a a wise choice especially in GPU market to create an ecosystem. Also it needs to be so in order to compete with console prices that Navi is initially designed for.

    RX590 I think was more of a trial run on Samsung's node so we not worry about that. It offers overly competitve pricing in today's market.

    Over the course of 2019 we can certainly expect these rumored prices. In jan 2017, Did you ever think that 8/16 CPU would be would be $250?? Intel certainly didn't believe that.

    AMD is going after market share and mind share. Profits will come from HPC. The only concern is whether memory will be able keep up capacity as Micron and the rest of the pack are price-fixers and may spoil the consumer party.
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2018

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