SSD prices could drop as much as 15 percent next quarter due to continued NAND flash oversupply

Shawn Knight

Posts: 13,518   +132
Staff member
Editor's take: The oversupply situation in the NAND flash industry is only expected to become more severe as we head into 2021 and could ultimately lead to even more affordable solid-state drives. As such, some enthusiasts are no doubt wondering if they should buy that new SSD now to take advantage of holiday pricing or wait until next quarter and purchase based on TrendForce’s forecast.

Market research firm TrendForce in its latest forecast said it expects the average selling price of NAND flash to decline by 10-15 percent in the first quarter of 2021. As a result, TrendForce anticipates client SSD prices to drop by the same percentage during the next three months.

PC DRAM is sort of in the same boat as NAND flash, at least in terms of demand. The difference, however, goes back to inventory. Client SSD inventory is still high while DRAM inventory is much closer to normal levels. That isn’t likely to work itself out in the near future, either, as NAND flash manufacturers are pressing forward with 128-layer and QLC designs.

According to TrendForce, client SSDs will account for 31 percent of NAND flash bit demand in 2021 while enterprise SSDs will consume 20 percent. eMMC/UFS (embedded MultiMediaCard / Universal Flash Storage) devices and raw NAND wafers will account for 41 percent and eight percent of bit output, respectively.

Masthead credit: KenSoftTH

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QuantumPhysics

Posts: 5,294   +6,019
The last time SSD prices were projected to drop, they did.

Unfortunately the drop was more pronounced in the low end (under 1TB ) drives than the ones we really want: 2TB, 4TB and 8TB.

I remember when a 4TB SAMSUNG was $1500.

I got an 8TB SAMSUNG for just $799.

Hopefully PS5 and XBOX force production to continue to drop prices!
 

TheBigFatClown

Posts: 968   +393
@QuantumPhysics

Dayyyyuhhhmm!!!! I wish I had that much disposable income. Good for you, though!

I love this technology. 8TB in the space of a pack of "Juicy Fruit" bubble gum! That's amazing!

I'm about to pull the trigger on my first 1TB SSD but if they're going to drop further in price, I'll wait a bit longer since I don't actually "need" one. I'm a technology addict!

Note to self: "Breathe dawg, breathe!" Self-control!
 

Squid Surprise

Posts: 4,281   +3,503
I’m hoping that by the time that 5nm threadripper is out (6990 perhaps?), there will be a reasonably priced way to have a total of 100tb all in m.2 form factor....
 

QuantumPhysics

Posts: 5,294   +6,019
@QuantumPhysics

Dayyyyuhhhmm!!!! I wish I had that much disposable income. Good for you, though!

I love this technology. 8TB in the space of a pack of "Juicy Fruit" bubble gum! That's amazing!

I'm about to pull the trigger on my first 1TB SSD but if they're going to drop further in price, I'll wait a bit longer since I don't actually "need" one. I'm a technology addict!

Note to self: "Breathe dawg, breathe!" Self-control!


DO NOT buy a 1TB.

Buy a 2TB.
 

QuantumPhysics

Posts: 5,294   +6,019
I just (a couple months ago) bought a 1TB drive. But you now you've got me wondering: Why are you recommending a 2TB over a 1 (other than the obvious capacity benefit)?


Many people try to go cheap by buying a "small" cheap SSD (120GB - 512GB) to simply run their OS and then adding SSD and HDD in order to run games and other things.

A 1TB drive is about $100 but for twice the price you can have a 2TB drive that allows you to use your OS and your CLOUD SERVICE (onedrive) and have space for your games.

For example: I store my OS, cloud games (Steam), cloud services (Onedrive, iCloud) and music on a single SSD.

I keep a HDD for large video files.
 

kiwigraeme

Posts: 565   +428
I just (a couple months ago) bought a 1TB drive. But you now you've got me wondering: Why are you recommending a 2TB over a 1 (other than the obvious capacity benefit)?

The other benefit is longevity - if you look at manufacturers claims for amount of Petabytes written - it increases with size. I would not worry too much - SSD drives were tested to death and survived for years working continuously . I have an old PC with a Samsung 840 256Gb drive - I never minded trashing it
 

Lew Zealand

Posts: 1,949   +2,255
TechSpot Elite
Lulz I bought a 2TB SATA SSD at last year's Black Friday for $180 and it's still sitting in my flash drive box waiting for a home. Almost everything else here of note has one already and while I do technically have a role for it, I'm just super not motivated to set it up. It's been a real handy data shuttler though (420MB/s w/USB3 UASP cable) when needed, so I'll probably miss it when I get off my keister and put it to use. After 2TB, my next need would be for about 16-20TB but I already have HDD RAIDs for that and SSDs won't be financially feasible for at least 5 years, probably 10.
 

HafizNafes89

Posts: 61   +35
The last time SSD prices were projected to drop, they did.

Unfortunately the drop was more pronounced in the low end (under 1TB ) drives than the ones we really want: 2TB, 4TB and 8TB.

I remember when a 4TB SAMSUNG was $1500.

I got an 8TB SAMSUNG for just $799.

Hopefully PS5 and XBOX force production to continue to drop prices!
The last time SSD prices were projected to drop, they did.

Unfortunately the drop was more pronounced in the low end (under 1TB ) drives than the ones we really want: 2TB, 4TB and 8TB.

I remember when a 4TB SAMSUNG was $1500.

I got an 8TB SAMSUNG for just $799.

Hopefully PS5 and XBOX force production to continue to drop prices!
I need your opinion on this one. Should I?

1.) Get the largest SSD I can possibly afford regardless of the interface? If you answer yes to this, then I would just choose a really good 4TB SATA SSD and be done with it.

2.) Get an NVME SSD granted the possibility that games are programmed to take advantage of the faster read speeds? This is because SSD's are starting to become a requirement. We might start to see a difference in loading times between a Sata drive and NVME. If you answer yes here, Then I will just purchase a 4TB Sabrent Rocket Q. I already have the 2tb Model installed in my laptop and I'm impressed with how it handles games. It throttles when working with lots of media files but I Will eventually Install my 1TB Evo 970 plus alongside it for that purpose.

3) Should I get a high capacity Pci-e 4 Drive? If you answer yes here then I will get The 4TB Sabrent Rocket 4Q. Given the release of the new consoles, PS5 and XSX. It's possible that games will not only become far more demanding in the near future, but SSD prices are expected to drop dramatically. Games may not increase in size since developers are seeking ways to compress them even more. This may cause loading times to increase putting a bigger load on both CPU and Storage thus possibly increasing a need for an NVME Drive and even a Pci-e 4 Drive. I could just wait a little longer and see how things play out. I still have a very fast 12TB 7200rpm HDD that reads 250mb/s. I have yet to come across a game where loading times are unbearable.

Long story short: Which one you would get out of the following if you were in my shoes?

I will not be spending extra on a TLC or MLC unless I can get one for a small increase since It doesn't seem to make a huge difference in gaming performance. My 1TB Samsung 970 Evo+ doesn't seem to load games any faster than my 2TB Sabrent Rocket Q.

Samsung 860 QVO SSD 4TB: 350-400$
Sabrent Rocket Q3 4TB: 600$
Sabrent Rocket Q4 4TB: 690$