The myth of China's stolen EUV machine meets reality: it hasn't made a single chip

[stmok]

This Western viewpoint seems so.....biased? Ignorant? I dont know exactly how to describe it.

Who do you think runs TSMC? The Taiwanese population is.....Chinese! They declared independence after the civil war, and whether Taiwan is part of China is still a major political debate, but what is straight up fact is that the engineers that drove and still drive TSMC, the leader in high tech nodes....are all ethnically Chinese.

This cope that "Oh the Chinese can only copy they cant innovate like us WESTERNERS" is why the Chinese have been able to steadily erode Western power around the globe and dominate manufacturing. China doesnt need engineers to move to China. They have 1.4 billion people and, unlike the West, they havent destroyed their education system pushing virtue signaling culture war BS. Every day they are catching up to, or exceeding, Western efforts.

And the irony of saying Deepseek is "generations behind" when Western "AI" is nothing more then scraped Google searches with tokens. Last year the cope was that China was decades away from having their own "AI", now we've moved to "well we're still ahead" and in another year the goalposts will move yet again to "oh well we have X feature so we're still ahead". We saw this with the production of automobiles, we saw this with the production of electronics, we saw this with media. Ne Zha 2, a domestic Chinese film, not only was more successful then any individual Western flick of 25, but has animation comparable to Disney in their prime.

It will be no different here. In 5 years we have gone from "China will never reverse engineer ASML" to "They've been taking apart the machines and breaking them" to now "Well they have a machine, but its patchwork and doesnt function!". In 2-3 years, we'll then hit "China is making its first wafers using ASML tech" then "China is now mass producing ASML wafers, but they're not as good as ours" and finally we'll hit "China can now mass produce ASML quality tech and is flooding the market". Eventually we'll hear about how ASML is nearly bankrupt and the taxpayer needs to fund them tot he tune of hundreds of billions to avoid yet another industry being controlled by China.

HUBRIS! That was the word! Western Hubris prevents the West from realizing what a threat to their global hegemony China truly is. That Hubris blinds them, makes us content that we will never lose the lead because we are the WEST, we can INNOVATE! And we'll ride that self-assured cope right into the grave, just like Russia believing they can solve any problem because they are RUSSIAN and therefore superior, right up until their flagship sits on the bottom of the black sea.

I would also amend this comment with more examples…

When USA banned China from being part of the International Space Station program, China built their own.

When American car companies can’t compete, they lobby the US Govt to ban Chinese made cars from being imported to American consumers. (Little do most Americans understand that the microchips in modern American and European cars are from China).

Regarding this article, the author has left out an important bit of information…those constructing this reverse engineered “Frankenstein manufacturing tool” are actually former ASML engineers who are Chinese. (Not mentioned in the article).

Those former engineers got paid somewhere between US$400K to US$700K (plus benefits) to work on this Huawei project.

Oh gee, the same Huawei mega corporation who was targeted by the USA and the West with all sorts of bans in the past!

It’s like America knows Huawei is a technological threat to USA, and will come up with all sorts of excuses to justify their actions.

America used to promote free market capitalism…when they were the only Superpower.

Now that China threatens that supremacy, the USA behaves in complete reverse. It’s like they know they cannot compete.

But what do you expect? For the last 10 years, the Superpower of the World was too busy figuring out if men can enter women’s bathrooms/toilets. Heck, the last Administration had trouble defining what a woman is!

Even their friend over the pond (United Kingdom) had to define what a woman is by Law!

All the while China had been pumping out engineering students, establishing a robust R&D foundation, developing a solid manufacturing base, and building an economic counter group (BRICS) to the West’s G7.

By the time Trump got elected for a 2nd term, it is already too late. (None of his “business experience” has worked against China)…even Washington think-tanks suggest changing strategy from treating China as a hostile threat to a competitive rival.

If you want to see the payoff of reaping what you so, just look how fast China is with ship building.

As the US Navy struggles with building new ships (huge backlog), China is pumping theirs out like no tomorrow.

After officially putting their 3rd aircraft carrier into service in 2025, their 4th aircraft carrier (first nuclear powered one) is already under construction. Western satellites have noted the power plants being moved into place.


But really, who should be surprised by all this…when one country is mostly led by engineers under an “evil Communist regime” and the other is being led by celebrities, real estate tycoons, lawyers, radical activists, lobbyists, and corrupt politicians.

Don’t be too surprised when USA behaves the same toward India (when the Indians rise up economically as well).

USA’s goal is to be number 1 in the World. The rise of non-Western countries threaten that.

The sad part? The only thing Americans can do is talk crap about others over the Internet…like a jealous high school “mean girl”.

Instead of rolling their sleeves up and getting on with it like they used to…solve their own nation’s issues and problems.

 

[SRB]

Some historical Chinese inventions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chinese_inventions

I'm sorry, but which of those was made by the totalitarian Comunist Chinese Party? As has been said, you're confusing a country's heritage with the current oppressive government that came into power in 1949 that has more in common with a mafia crime family than a legitimate functioning government Aggressive, immoral, non transparent, tells the truth only when it suits them, lies when it suits them, and has stolen more of their technology than they have created since the CCP has come to power.

The people and their heritage is NOT their government or politics.

 

[SRB]

I personally was a student in Fu Dan University. Had an apartment nearby. You don't know what you're talking about - beyond parroting right wing talking points.

China and India don't need to attract minds from around the world. They literally birth them.

What your leaving out of your view is that it doesn't have anything to do with where one is born. And if they ARE so advanced and kicking our ***, why do we have so many "students' coming from India and China to attend school? Next, you'll be saying that all of their aggression toward Taiwan and the west by their military is justified protectionism.

Besides, no one is saying they are not smart. The used the ignorance of our business leaders and our open markets to voluntarily abandon local production of products critical to the west. So much so that it will be painful and expensive to recreate manufacturing we never should have abandoned.

What is boils down to is the motivations and methods of China are for the good of China and only China. As much as some on here feel that the U.S. is the same, that is far from the case.

 

[redgarl]

And ironically, you guys are still pumping CCP propaganda in every article stating that China is breathing in the neck of the US Chips design and TSMC manufacturing capabilities when they are decades behind... not years, DECADES...

 

[SRB]

Yes, Chinese authoritarianism is a problem, despite that China is still making advancements and closing the gap with every passing day, I'm not sure why you're bringing it up like its a panacea to the whole argument. It doesnt change the fact that China is catching up and will one day surpass the West if they dont fix this problem very soon. Some may argue the cat is already out of the bag.

Being authoritarian didnt stop the Chinese from building new Gen IV nuclear plants, or dominating the EV market, or getting a rover to the moon. It's not gonna stop them from making wafers either. Slow them down? Certainly. But it wont stop them, and the sooner the West wakes up and realizes that the better.

The problem with where China is at with ANY of the above projects is we have only their word for where they are at. Whatever Deepseek was, it is NOT what they reported it as. Same with their "EUV" machine, Headline is that they now have EUV capability, the reality is they have a collection of EUV parts that will probably NEVER make a single chip. When you get into the weeds of advanced chipmaking, the supply chain needed to build one goes far, far beyond ASML. I.e. only ONE company in the world is capable of making the critical optics path components. Try operating one without the software needed for the processing.

As far as the rest, the reason they have reactors and we don't is they don't have to worry about regulations or political concerns. Dominating EV's? Helps when you buy up the worlds supply of critical minerals and have cheap labor. Nobody's saying they won't win and create havoc, but this is as much the west's navel gazing and political posturing inherent to government that requires public approval.

Sub 2nm chips are not one of them.

 

[Megalomaniac]

What your leaving out of your view is that it doesn't have anything to do with where one is born. And if they ARE so advanced and kicking our ***, why do we have so many "students' coming from India and China to attend school? Next, you'll be saying that all of their aggression toward Taiwan and the west by their military is justified protectionism.

Besides, no one is saying they are not smart. The used the ignorance of our business leaders and our open markets to voluntarily abandon local production of products critical to the west. So much so that it will be painful and expensive to recreate manufacturing we never should have abandoned.

What is boils down to is the motivations and methods of China are for the good of China and only China. As much as some on here feel that the U.S. is the same, that is far from the case.

I yield. Obviously you are the expert.

Good Night.

 

[opckieran]

The Chinese trying to reverse - engineer EUV? They'd be better off attempting to solve the Millenium Puzzle...

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

 

[redgarl]

I personally was a student in Fu Dan University. Had an apartment nearby. You don't know what you're talking about - beyond parroting right wing talking points.

China and India don't need to attract minds from around the world. They literally birth them.

And they leave for North America and Europe because they want to earn a meaningful salary and don't want to be slaves...

 

[trieste1s]

For the sake of global capitalism I sure hope the Chinese crack the code soon. We don't need a fabrication monopoly with regards to microchips. Fabrication, just like power generation, should end up (nearly) becoming a commodity, and any downstream company should find it really easy to pick and choose from multiple independent upstream sources to fabricate with.

 

[Megalomaniac]

And they leave for North America and Europe because they want to earn a meaningful salary and don't want to be slaves...

I yield. Obviously you are the expert.

Good Night.

 

[Megalomaniac]

For the sake of global capitalism I sure hope the Chinese crack the code soon. We don't need a fabrication monopoly with regards to microchips. Fabrication, just like power generation, should end up (nearly) becoming a commodity, and any downstream company should find it really easy to pick and choose from multiple independent upstream sources to fabricate with.

Exactly.

The only thing American corporations are interested in is eating up all the revenue and profit. China will bootleg everything and make it affordable for everyone.
If the American corporations don't like it then they should manufacture in America and employ Americans instead of taking advantage of Chinese... Only they've chosen to find their next slave labor in lesser-equipped India.

America is nothing more than slave labor profiteers. It always was. It always will be.

Eventually they'll be making iPhones in Afghanistan or Iraq or both.

 

[DonquixoteIII]

China lies about everything. Dont believe all their bullsht.

So does the US - Under the Orange Buffoon's rule, anyway. How do you know when trump is lying? His lips are moving.

 

[DonquixoteIII]

My viewpoint... Wait and see, but with the current AI - driven 'science' in the US today I don't doubt that any country that wants to surpass the US can, and will succeed.

'Chinese EUV has yet to make a single chip' is a headline I see often, Let's suggest, then, that the trillion or so monies spent on AI have, so far, not yielded any MEANINGFUL results. Horrendous waste of time, money and resources. If all that talent were put to use in, say, going to Mars, we might be a year out from doing so. In today's dollars the Manhattan project cost MUCH less.

Looking at Merriam - Webster's definitions for 'artificial', most center around (paraphrasing) 'not real' or 'fake'.

One might say that the Turing Test was the original test for 'artificial intelligence' Maybe ONE computer has managed to sort-of pass it?

In Short, Altman is looking for the North West passage, in the 21st century. One thing that HAS been developed, though is a whole new method of making money... Circular investing. The fiscal equivalent to perpetual motion.

Oh! Yes! another strategy was also developed! The large corps have PROVEN that they can break the aw and not one eye will bat.... Corporate theft of IP on an unprecedented scale.

 

[unoficialoficial]

5 years from now we'll look back on this and wonder how the Chinese blew past Nvidia and AMD.

Maybe you are right. I think it's a hardware project similar to the ReactOS project in software. It will likely be buggy at the beginning, but has significant potential when it reaches a mature level of development. Especially when we consider and other innovations from China like the use of bismuth oxyselenide materials in chips (40% faster, 10% less energy).

 

[GeoffreyA]

I'm sorry, but which of those was made by the totalitarian Comunist Chinese Party? As has been said, you're confusing a country's heritage with the current oppressive government that came into power in 1949 that has more in common with a mafia crime family than a legitimate functioning government Aggressive, immoral, non transparent, tells the truth only when it suits them, lies when it suits them, and has stolen more of their technology than they have created since the CCP has come to power.

The people and their heritage is NOT their government or politics.

What I see is pervasive anti-China sentiment. Let's not change the story and say, "This is against the government, not the people." America needs an opponent on the world's stage because they've got to be the top dog, and China is a threat to that hegemony. In the past, it was Russia; now, China. All this is frequently wrapped in morally-superior, anti-communism rhetoric.

 

[Tantor]

The fools who believe China is falling behind should read this NY TImes article:

"According to the latest annual Nature Index, which tracks research institutions by their contributions to leading science journals, the single remaining U.S. institution among the top 10 is Harvard, in second place, far behind the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The others are:

The University of Science and Technology of China

Zhejiang University

Peking University

The University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Tsinghua University

Nanjing University

Germany’s Max Planck Society

Shanghai Jiao Tong University

A decade ago, C.A.S. was the only Chinese institution to figure in the top 10. Now eight of the 10 leaders are in China. If this does not constitute a Sputnik moment, it is hard to imagine what would."

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/opinion/universities-science-trump-china.html

 

[meric]

This Western viewpoint seems so.....biased? Ignorant? I dont know exactly how to describe it.

Who do you think runs TSMC? The Taiwanese population is.....Chinese! They declared independence after the civil war, and whether Taiwan is part of China is still a major political debate, but what is straight up fact is that the engineers that drove and still drive TSMC, the leader in high tech nodes....are all ethnically Chinese.

This cope that "Oh the Chinese can only copy they cant innovate like us WESTERNERS" is why the Chinese have been able to steadily erode Western power around the globe and dominate manufacturing. China doesnt need engineers to move to China. They have 1.4 billion people and, unlike the West, they havent destroyed their education system pushing virtue signaling culture war BS. Every day they are catching up to, or exceeding, Western efforts.

And the irony of saying Deepseek is "generations behind" when Western "AI" is nothing more then scraped Google searches with tokens. Last year the cope was that China was decades away from having their own "AI", now we've moved to "well we're still ahead" and in another year the goalposts will move yet again to "oh well we have X feature so we're still ahead". We saw this with the production of automobiles, we saw this with the production of electronics, we saw this with media. Ne Zha 2, a domestic Chinese film, not only was more successful then any individual Western flick of 25, but has animation comparable to Disney in their prime.

It will be no different here. In 5 years we have gone from "China will never reverse engineer ASML" to "They've been taking apart the machines and breaking them" to now "Well they have a machine, but its patchwork and doesnt function!". In 2-3 years, we'll then hit "China is making its first wafers using ASML tech" then "China is now mass producing ASML wafers, but they're not as good as ours" and finally we'll hit "China can now mass produce ASML quality tech and is flooding the market". Eventually we'll hear about how ASML is nearly bankrupt and the taxpayer needs to fund them tot he tune of hundreds of billions to avoid yet another industry being controlled by China.

HUBRIS! That was the word! Western Hubris prevents the West from realizing what a threat to their global hegemony China truly is. That Hubris blinds them, makes us content that we will never lose the lead because we are the WEST, we can INNOVATE! And we'll ride that self-assured cope right into the grave, just like Russia believing they can solve any problem because they are RUSSIAN and therefore superior, right up until their flagship sits on the bottom of the black sea.

You, sir, are a very intelligent and well-educated person. You explained a point of view that the westerners refuse to see or accept. Thank you for a very good and informative read.

I'd like to add my humble view point. Now, EUV, ASML, AI, nano-tech etc are very important today, no doubt about that. However, while the west is debating about these, restricting tech exports/imports, talking about AI bubble etc etc, they are silently building and shaping our future.



It's not a secret that they surpassed the west (probably all the west combined) in research, long ago. They aren't only copying tech from westerners, no it's not as basic as that. They are investing heavily in R&D. This means in a decade they'll potentially come up with new ways to produce chips and high tech. They are already a step ahead in battery tech. It's also hard to know what else they are cooking behind those doors and this shouldn't be taken lightly.

 

[GeoffreyA]

You, sir, are a very intelligent and well-educated person. You explained a point of view that the westerners refuse to see or accept. Thank you for a very good and informative read.

I'd like to add my humble view point. Now, EUV, ASML, AI, nano-tech etc are very important today, no doubt about that. However, while the west is debating about these, restricting tech exports/imports, talking about AI bubble etc etc, they are silently building and shaping our future.

View attachment 90751

It's not a secret that they surpassed the west (probably all the west combined) in research, long ago. They aren't only copying tech from westerners, no it's not as basic as that. They are investing heavily in R&D. This means in a decade they'll potentially come up with new ways to produce chips and high tech. They are already a step ahead in battery tech. It's also hard to know what else they are cooking behind those doors and this shouldn't be taken lightly.

The problem is that some in the West, not all, do not wish to face the facts of a global world, imagining that the world and civilisation are confined to their borders, beyond which lies the strange, backward "third world." It may have been at the top at one point, but like all civilisations, that position is temporary. I do not doubt that China will be a leader in many fields in years to come; India will follow at a later, slower trajectory. Africa might rise decades hence or in the following century but that's more speculative.

 

[MiqWalsh]

China lies about everything. Dont believe all their bullsht.

What, and POTUS doesn't?? Don't kid yourself; the Western world is just as bad.....probably worse. So climbing down off that high horse of yours might be the best thing you can do. We're in no position to act all righteous, 'cos we're NO better than they are.

Miq.

 

[eldakka]

We're drowning in this China spam, they seem to exceed the speed of light at least once per month

Well at least somebody's found a use for all that AI ...

 

[Megalomaniac]

In other news.. Chinese have successfully landed humans on Mars, more at 11.

When you're falling behind, it makes more sense to project the winners as the losers.

 

[eldakka]

Number of patent applications isn't a very good proxy.

Just like suing someone, anyone can sue anyone for anything, anyone can lodge a patent application for anything. It doesn't cost much to submit a patent application, only a few hundred $$, so throw as much stuff at the wall as you can and see what sticks.

The question is not how many patent applications are lodged but:
a) how many are granted;
b) what's the quality of the granted applications;
c) how many of those actually go on to be useful, whether that's in actual manufactured items based on the patent, or useful research being done with reference to the patent that leads to something else.

 

[paulMason5690]

China doesnt attract the talents of the world. No engineer of any type says "I wanna move and work in China". And until that happens, the Chinese will be stuck w/ only Chinese engineers who mostly think the same. Can they copy stuff? Sure. Can they innovate & lead in technology w/ thier current government, culture, and homegenity? No.

Lots of exaggerated rumors of progress and innovation, like "Deepseek", which turns out to be still generations behind what the West is doing.

China doesnt attract the talents of the world. No engineer of any type says "I wanna move and work in China". And until that happens, the Chinese will be stuck w/ only Chinese engineers who mostly think the same. Can they copy stuff? Sure. Can they innovate & lead in technology w/ thier current government, culture, and homegenity? No.

Lots of exaggerated rumors of progress and innovation, like "Deepseek", which turns out to be still generations behind what the West is doing.

The Reuters report that broke this news quoted from a number of ASML retirees and former employees who have left the Netherlands and returned to China and are working on this project. It is worth a read.

So I think these top people are returning as China becomes more attractive as a centre of tech and China does have a vast pool of highly skilled talent.

But this Techspot story helps calibrate the notion that a few former ASML techs can rebuild the EUV machine, I e. Reverse engineer it as essentially copied tech.

Reuters don't claim that, or that the machine can yet make chips BTW -- it says they can't, and they target 2028, but the engineers say 2030 is more likely. But some have taken the story to mean that these ASML techs are going to do it -- but they'll just be experts in one of a thousand fields of expertise are required to make the machine.

So it's unlikely China will do what they normally do and beat their target in this case. It's their Manhattan project, and they'll crack it, and with their own tech -- e.g. they are using solid lasers not CO² -- (for now anyway, but they are not very powerful).

 

[Bluescreendeath]

EUV isn’t IKEA furniture — having all the parts doesn’t mean the thing works if you skipped the software, suppliers, and 10,000 calibration steps.

So you basically have an Ikea furniture with 10,000 similar looking parts but no instruction manual to put it together.

 

[netman]

"A deeper analysis, however, paints a far less dramatic picture: the prototype is a nonfunctional patchwork of scavenged components, not an operational system capable of manufacturing chips."

Another words, manufactured Propaganda to Demonize China...!