TSMC R&D executive believes the chip shortage will last until 2024

[nanoguy]

Why it matters: TSMC will spend $44 billion this year on capacity expansions, up from $30 billion in 2021. But while most industry leaders believe the chip shortage will ease slightly in the coming months, the true impact of these expansion efforts may not be seen until 2024.

Most chipmakers believe the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict won’t worsen the global shortage of chips that’s been plaguing the tech and auto industries. The supply chain has been showing some signs of recovery as of late, but industry leaders still are, at best, cautiously optimistic about the entire situation.

The chip industry is scrambling to diversify its supply of materials and gases and pouring billions of dollars into building additional manufacturing facilities and equipping them with cutting-edge lithography equipment. Still, these efforts take years to materialize and have a measurable effect, so experts are increasingly unsure the industry will be able to catch up with demand this year, or even in 2023.

Yuh-Jier Mii, who is senior vice president of research and development at TSMC, told IEEE Spectrum during a recent interview that he believes it’s going to take two to three years before new factories will be able to help meet the demand for advanced chips.

This isn’t the official position of TSMC as a whole, but the Taiwanese company has maintained that its foundries are already firing on all cylinders. Furthermore, TSMC chairman Mark Liu said last year that many companies were unprepared for the surge in demand that happened during the pandemic, so they started stockpiling chips, further exacerbating the shortage. In other words, the tech and auto industries will take time to adapt after operating under a lean supply chain model.

Interestingly, Mii believes the semiconductor industry missed the signs of growing demand spurred by the rapid digitalization of almost every key aspect in our lives. At the same time, he also mentioned the path to progressing foundries to more advanced process nodes is getting much harder with every new generation. What used to be mostly a “major optical shrink” now requires significant rethinking of transistor architecture, materials, tools, and manufacturing processes.

Meanwhile, a looming crisis of skilled workers threatens the efforts of chipmakers and electronics manufacturers to build additional factories and more advanced production lines.

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https://www.techspot.com/news/93611-tsmc-rd-executive-believes-chip-shortage-last-until.html

 

[winjer]

Great news for TSMC share holders. Terrible news for everyone else.

 

[hahahanoobs]

Complexity in design and cost sure have risen substantially. I wish I remembered the exact chip and node that started at a $40 million cost to design (5 or so years ago I think), but I do remember the cost has jumped to $515 million for current chip designs.

 

[Dimitriid]

I'm sure they'll go "No no wait, make that 2025...Late 2025" at around November 2023. Just whatever they can do to make sure they just keep raising their prices in perpetuity.

Also I am starting to think this isn't just a price fixing strategy: companies like TSMC are under a lot of pressure to basically achieve something we know it's close to being physically impossible which is going beyond 3nm. As in there is nothing they can do once the particles can reliably jump regardless of transistor instructions because they're that small.

I'm sure that the fact their ever increasing efficiency race is basically quickly approaching the end of the line weights heavily on their decision to try and get as much money as possible while they can before much of the explosive demand for super efficient CPUs starts dying down and companies look for alternate solutions which pretty much look like just adding more computation through data centers instead of direct consumer products.

 

[Achaios]

The chip shortage will last as much as they can stretch it b/c it's them that created and sustain it to some degree through intentionally limiting the amount of chips they produce.

It's a bonanza for everyone, from the Leatherman to Lisa Su to shady companies like Mafia Scalpers Int'l.

Of course it will go on indefinitely if they can help it and they can.

 

[Nobina]

Hopefully, they don't start moving it by a year every year. Then we will know for sure they're intentionally dragging things out.

 

[p51d007]

Oh, it will "last" longer. Otherwise, their profits would not be as high.
Keep the "supply chain" shortage going, no matter how many chips they
produce. Keeps the PRICE higher.

 

[Theinsanegamer]

This will continue until the market collapses. Billionaires and the 1% gained SO MUCH from enforced government shutdowns and the advertisement of crypto to millions of newly unemployed people with stimulus checks to funnel THAT cash up to the 1%.

 

[BadThad]

They failed to account for the invasion by China. We haven't seen anything yet! It's about to get MUCH worse.

 

[koblongata]

Hm, maybe game studios should consider tone down their games' spec requirements from now on....

 

[MaestroIT]

Every few months somebody comes up saying it will last longer... what's new?
Just do a post when the shortage ends ...

 

[Neatfeatguy]

Hahahaha! There is no shortage.

From the forced government shut downs to piss poor management from companies and handing out so much money (at least in the States) and a multitude of other compounding issues.....everyone is behind. There is no shortage.

Everyone has been trying to play catch up since the unnecessary lockdowns were lifted. All the orders that were put on hold didn't just vanish and we all started from scratch, they were still there when businesses were allowed to go back to work.

All the backorders are needed to be filled and then all incoming orders are expected to be filled at same time. Problem is, the backorders take precedence and all new orders are pushed back and it's just a rotating door.

They need to stop calling it a shortage. We're not short on anything, we're just stuck filling backorders because we can't catch up.

 

[havok585]

"Furthermore, TSMC chairman Mark Liu said last year that many companies were unprepared for the surge in demand that happened during the pandemic, so they started stockpiling chips"

The only real info in the article.

 

[Mr Majestyk]

This will be the classic example of the self-fulfilling prophecy.

The world needs to stop putting all it's eggs in the TSMC basket.