US sanctions will keep China 10 years behind on chipmaking, Intel CEO says

[Daniel Sims]

The big picture: The United States has spent years trying to slow China's progress in sectors like semiconductors and AI through sanctions and export controls. Intel's CEO commented that this strategy is impacting China's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, underscoring the cooperation of countries like Japan and the Netherlands. These remarks echo statements from TSMC and Nvidia, though uncertainties about supply chains persist in this highly interconnected industry.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger asserted that China's semiconductor development would lag a decade behind leading countries due to U.S. sanctions on crucial chipmaking components.

Gelsinger explained that the tools available to China would restrict the country to produce 14nm and 7nm chips for now. In contrast, companies such as TSMC in Taiwan, Samsung in South Korea, and Intel in the U.S. are gearing up to implement more advanced processes for 3nm, 2nm, and even smaller semiconductors in the coming years. It is anticipated that TSMC's 2nm chips will be featured in the iPhone 17, set to debut in 2025.

The US enacted controls to prevent China from accessing the necessary tools for the latest chip technology in response to China's rapid growth in the sector. However, the US didn't hold China back alone. A key element of the policy's effectiveness has been the cooperation of Japan and the Netherlands.

ASML, a Dutch company and the world's largest supplier of lithography tools essential for producing sub-14nm semiconductors, recently shipped its latest high-end EUV machines to Intel. This move is part of Intel's efforts to regain its position at the forefront of chipmaking, having fallen behind TSMC and Samsung.

At the Davos forum, Gelsinger discussed the fragility of global supply chains, a concern that became apparent during the pandemic. He noted how decades of industrial policy have concentrated chip manufacturing in Asian countries, a trend the US is now attempting to reverse with the Chips Act. This legislation aims to enhance America's technological self-sufficiency.

Last year, TSMC founder Morris Chang acknowledged that U.S. sanctions might temporarily benefit TSMC but expressed skepticism about the long-term effectiveness of such measures. He predicted that the sanctions would keep China several years behind in chipmaking technology. However, he also noted that countries like the US would need substantial time to develop their chipmaking capacities.

American officials are optimistic that the U.S. can start producing and packaging the most advanced semiconductors within a decade. In contrast, Nvidia's CEO believes this goal might take closer to 10 or 20 years.

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https://www.techspot.com/news/101570-us-sanctions-keep-china-10-years-behind-chipmaking.html

 

[Mr Majestyk]

Ever the clown old Gelsinger. I guess China is in your rearvision mirror along with AMD too now.

US sanctions are a joke that are easily violated. China will be ultracompetitive in 5 years max.

 

[Kam7r]

Sanctions are snake oil

 

[toooooot]

The thing I learned about sanctions by observing multiple countries and reading on how they happen:
-They usually work. By that I mean there is almost a guaranteed effect. Iran, USSR, they suffered economical losses when they were punished.
-The effect come in slowly. It usually takes years till first serious effects start to appear.
-The amount of damage they cause can vary. Usually, there is a slow decline that hurts more when a country is more advanced and less when a country is less advanced.

Sanctions are not a button that is pressed and it is over. They will observe adjust and make them more effective in response the the sanctioned country's attempts to find loopholes.

Personally, I hope for a deal and peaceful trading because it benefits both countries.
There is no arrogance to say that China would not make it here without USA.
And there is more to gain if the partnership continues.

 

[Jyrkz]

They are already making quite competitive chips. The thing is "US" is going woke etc.. while China is doing the opposite. It wont take long when they pass US in everything.

 

[Mouseface]

Ever the clown old Gelsinger. I guess China is in your rearvision mirror along with AMD too now.

US sanctions are a joke that are easily violated. China will be ultracompetitive in 5 years max.

Haha, come back to reality, or disconnect your VPN, comrade

 

[Mouseface]

They are already making quite competitive chips. The thing is "US" is going woke etc.. while China is doing the opposite. It wont take long when they pass US in everything.

Stop hallucinating!

 

[Mouseface]

Sanctions are snake oil

The Chinese dictatorship is snake oil

 

[Manuel Diego]

The US can compete thanks to government sanctions. Free market!

 

[Bobbydpue]

Ever the clown old Gelsinger. I guess China is in your rearvision mirror along with AMD too now.

US sanctions are a joke that are easily violated. China will be ultracompetitive in 5 years max.

It's super easy to type out such a bold statement, but where is the evidence to support it?

 

[BuckarooBonzaii]

It will be successful if people are willing to work in a fast paced manufacturing job that never sleeps. Another thing will be cost and how long before companies go back to the East. But then the Government will probably bail them out. Everything looks promising but once the hype dies out it's business as usual to maximize profits by any means.

 

[Durch]

Intel just wants to reap profits and keep their shareholders happy. To say China will be kept 10 years behind is foolery and they know it.

 

[Angga B]

Necessity is the MOTHER of all invention.
US, and more in general the west, haven't learn a single thing from their own deliberate participation into the rise of China in every economical, industrial and technological sectors throughout the late decades. Facing the gargantuan monster of their own creation still they think they are the ones riding the high horses.
Which is good, imho, doubling down in arrogance is perfect. Please, don't stop, no brake, no reverse gear, pedal to the metal!

 

[backfrombreak]

3 years at best. What cannot be created, will be borrowed.

 

[ragreeen2646]

The real question on China is:
Will the communist party and current emperor XI Jinping stifle entrepreneurIal spirit in China.

 

[Dimitrios]

They are already making quite competitive chips. The thing is "US" is going woke etc.. while China is doing the opposite. It wont take long when they pass US in everything.

Thank you, good to see I'm not the only one that see's it like this. To me, woke was pushed by China and the left to slow America's pace and to use it to infiltrate spies/weaken our country. This is used not only the work force but by leaders like mayors, governors and White house staff.

 

[Gars]

Guys, India is the new China
focus on that

 

[Jyrkz]

Thank you, good to see I'm not the only one that see's it like this. To me, woke was pushed by China and the left to slow America's pace and to use it to infiltrate spies/weaken our country. This is used not only the work force but by leaders like mayors, governors and White house staff.

Cheers mate. These are some crazy times

 

[Shadownovascotia]

Ever the clown old Gelsinger. I guess China is in your rearvision mirror along with AMD too now.

US sanctions are a joke that are easily violated. China will be ultracompetitive in 5 years max.

How are they going to do that without ASML, USA, Japan, global supply chains and an imploding economy?

 

[Shadownovascotia]

Sanctions are snake oil

Sanctions are in fact the opposite of snake oil and have a long history of being effective?

 

[Shadownovascotia]

They are already making quite competitive chips. The thing is "US" is going woke etc.. while China is doing the opposite. It wont take long when they pass US in everything.

Their chips are not even comparable let alone competitive.

You are blinded by partisan BS, “wokeness” has nothing to do with technological advancement. And if you really want to dig into that rabbit hole, the most “woke” areas are the richest and most advanced.

 

[Badbreathbarfly]

The thing I learned about sanctions by observing multiple countries and reading on how they happen:
-They usually work. By that I mean there is almost a guaranteed effect. Iran, USSR, they suffered economical losses when they were punished.
-The effect come in slowly. It usually takes years till first serious effects start to appear.
-The amount of damage they cause can vary. Usually, there is a slow decline that hurts more when a country is more advanced and less when a country is less advanced.

Sanctions are not a button that is pressed and it is over. They will observe adjust and make them more effective in response the the sanctioned country's attempts to find loopholes.

Personally, I hope for a deal and peaceful trading because it benefits both countries.
There is no arrogance to say that China would not make it here without USA.
And there is more to gain if the partnership continues.

Well, I must respectfully disagree with you a little bit. It's nice to hope for peaceful trading with china, but that's just a fluffy thought. China (not the Chinese) rarely honors any deal. If they can cheat us through exports in any way, they will for as long as they can get away with it.

For example, I have my parents kitchen knives I used as a child. Just basic cutlery & stamped "China's Finest Stainless Steel". Now if that were a true statement. Why are all the stainless steel knives Magnetic? Does china have magic metal where all metal is magnetic? I wonder if their exported gold might be a little magnetic too? Go ahead, go into your own kitchen with a magnet & see for yourself how many things that should be or you thought were stainless steel & their not.

Moving right along.
Look we shot ourselves in the foot, when we allowed NAFTA to continue after 5 years. That was our government putting sanction's on it's own people. Mostly made by (imo, a corrupted enemy of the state) our foreign legislators.
NAFTA was like pulling the stopper to a bathtub & watching all the water slowly drain away. Metaphorically the tub water is all our industrial, manufacturing, Universities, Medical Research & big Pharmaceutical companies. A lot of the leading global companies were founded here, in the US. & their pollution was kept in check by our EPA. After NAFTA, the gloves were off. So industry's like petroleum moved south of the border to setup refineries that wont be fined for pollution. It saved refineries billions. So now they continue to pollute outside the US, unchecked.

But still the American Tax Dollars pays the fine. Now our tax dollar has been offered up to pay for; all the worlds pollution, to support two! I repeat two proxy-wars, to provide absolutely free legal & medical care to over 10 million illegals. How did this happen? I didn't invite them, did any of you?
I voted for Joe, but I didn't vote for this.
Alright, im done. Think happy thoughts :~}

 

[Arbie]

Intel finally makes a tech prediction we can credit. They are today's experts on being years behind.