TL;DR: Sanctions against Russia mean the country now looks to the Chinese gray market for its semiconductor imports, but there's a problem: 40% of them are defective. That marks a 1,900% increase in their failure rate over the last few months.
"Even if China got a hold of the golden hen, it won't be able to lay golden eggs"
In context: Once again, rising tensions between China and the US have put the spotlight on Taiwan and what would happen to TSMC, which manufactures more than half the world's semiconductors, in the event of an invasion. One proposal is to destroy the company's facilities, but the island's security chief said such a move is unnecessary.
Why it matters: Earlier this month, the US government blocked the sale of specific chips to anyone in China. We see this as an important change by the government in the tactics they are deploying. The United States has gone from blocking specific companies in China, to blocking all companies and focusing on specific products.
This is a big change, and opens up the question -- what exactly are they hoping to achieve? This matters obviously in that it can help us predict the outcome, but we increasingly hold the view that the government may not have entirely thought through how this will ultimately play out.
Cutting corners: Washington is preparing new rules to ban exports of advanced chipmaking devices to China, a move that could, however, be too little too late as Asian manufacturing companies are already engaged in making sub-14nm semiconductors on their own.